According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 12th to 17th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2739 yuan/ton to 2695 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.58% during the period, a month on month increase of 3.12%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.40%. The domestic methanol market rose and then fell back. At the beginning of the week, driven by the rise in crude oil prices, the domestic methanol market strengthened, but after reaching a high level, the market was generally buying gas. Later, with the increase in shipping costs, production companies offered discounts and shipped, causing the domestic methanol market price to fall.

As of the close on January 17th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2505 for methanol futures opened at 2621 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2628 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2583 yuan/ton. It closed at 2604 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton or 1.33% from the previous trading day’s settlement, with a trading volume of 786645 lots and a holding volume of 739107 lots, with a daily increase of -30649.

On the cost side, although there has been a slight reduction in supply from production areas, the daily consumption of terminal power plants has been slow to rise, and high coal reserves have accumulated. The market’s enthusiasm for coal procurement is poor, which has suppressed the driving force of coal price increases. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

Demand side, downstream formaldehyde: formaldehyde demand has significantly decreased; Downstream dimethyl ether: Increased demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: Increased demand for methanol; Downstream chlorides: Increased demand for methanol; There is currently no plan to shut down or start the acetic acid plant, and there is not much change in demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

On the supply side, the overall recovery exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.

In terms of external markets, as of the close on January 16th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 361.00-362.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is between 120.00 and 121.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 417.50-418.50 euros/ton, down 7 euros/ton.

Future forecast: Traditional downstream demand is expected to gradually decline due to the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, and MTO demand may not change significantly. Attention should be paid to fluctuations in freight rates and downstream stocking situation. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations.