1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, since mid January, the PVC spot market has reversed its decline and rebounded at the bottom of the price. As of the 21st, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4966 yuan/ton, with a 2.52% increase in this round.

2、 Market analysis

Supply side: Since mid month, the PVC spot market has performed strongly, reversing the previous decline. Recently, with the continuous rise of crude oil and the driving force of PVC futures market, the linkage between the spot market is obvious, and prices continue to rise. The market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand. Recently, the PVC operating rate has remained stable, although some facilities have undergone temporary inspections and some fully operational enterprises have reduced their production. However, the impact on output is not significant, and the increase is mainly driven by the improvement of enterprise shipments. Combined with the improvement of external sentiment and the optimistic market atmosphere, export orders have increased, and traders are testing high reports.

In terms of inventory, the market has seen a temporary increase in transaction volume recently, and the continuous reduction of enterprise inventory is the main reason. This is mainly due to the concentrated inventory reduction and pre holiday light inventory operation strategy of enterprises since January. But the social inventory has slightly increased, and there is still some supply pressure in the market.

Cost side and demand: Since January, the price of calcium carbide in the market has remained stable, and the stabilization has brought certain benefits to downstream PVC. In addition, the residual temperature of downstream procurement before the holiday supported market demand, but the current peak of procurement is gradually coming to an end, and downstream consumers generally have a resistance to high priced goods, which to some extent suppresses the continued rise of PVC prices. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electric aggregate in China is mostly around 4900-5050 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that as the holiday approaches, the trading volume in the PVC spot market is gradually weakening, and downstream companies are gradually suspending work and holidays. Demand is weakening, and market transactions are expected to decline. Most of the current rise is driven by the futures market and policies. Although traders are helping to speculate on the rise, the weak fundamentals of the spot market have led to a sustained upward trend.