According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province has slightly declined, with an average market price of 16250 yuan/ton at the end of the month and 15800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 2.77%.

This month’s market analysis

This month is the first month after the end of the Spring Festival holiday. Magnesium prices have been stable in the early stages of this month, but have rapidly fallen to a new low in recent years by the end of this month. The decline exceeded expectations, and the market sentiment was pessimistic.

Supply and demand side

At the beginning of this month, new orders for the New Year have been fulfilled one after another, and there is not much stock supply. Due to the slow resumption of work by downstream enterprises and the need to digest inventory from before the year, factory inventory pressure is not high, and cost support is strong. It is expected that quotations will remain firm, and stable operation will be achieved in the first half of the year under weak supply and demand conditions. Moving to the end of this month, due to the lack of a clear rebound in demand, there has been a rapid decline in raw material prices, and magnesium prices have lost their raw material support, resulting in a rapid decline in value.

Due to prices reaching the freezing point of nearly four years, some factories have chosen to shut down for maintenance in advance to reduce losses and adjust production pace, which will significantly reduce the supply of coal and magnesium.

In terms of raw materials

The raw material ferrosilicon market is showing a stalemate and weak stability pattern, with price fluctuations narrowing and the overall market lacking significant breakthroughs. As far as the current situation is concerned, most buyers have low purchasing enthusiasm and a certain degree of price pressure sentiment. Weak market demand has suppressed the overall market situation. In addition, news of a downward adjustment in raw material prices has weakened the support for the bottom of costs. Recently, some confidence in the industry has slightly decreased, and the actual transaction prices have been adjusted. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on February 28th, ferrosilicon (brand: FeSi75～B; The market price for grain size grade/mm: natural blocks in Ningxia is between 5800-6000 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 5954 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26%.

The price of raw material blue charcoal has fallen again, and some mainstream calcium carbide enterprises downstream have lowered the purchase price of small and medium-sized blue charcoal materials, which has reduced the production enthusiasm of enterprises. As of February 28th, the mainstream prices for small and medium-sized materials in the Shenmu market are 590-750 yuan/ton, and 450-520 yuan/ton for coke surface; The mainstream prices for small and medium-sized materials in the Fugu market are 590-750 yuan/ton, and 440-600 yuan/ton for coke surface; The mainstream price of coke in the Zhongwei market is 550 yuan/ton; Shizuishan market mixed material costs 620 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in the Ordos market is 680-765 yuan/ton, and the price of coke surface is 550-650 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in Hohhot market is 730-750 yuan/ton, and the price of coke surface is 700 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in Hami market is 920-1050 yuan/ton, coke surface is 380-1050 yuan/ton, and mixed materials are 210-315 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in Changji market is 850-1220 yuan/ton, and the price of coke surface is 550 yuan/ton, all of which are ex factory cash prices including tax; The prices of small and medium-sized materials such as blue charcoal in Tianjin Port are 980-1040 yuan/ton, and coke face is 800-880 yuan/ton, both of which are cash inclusive of taxes at the port closing price; The price of Yumen small materials is 280-520 yuan/ton, the price of coke surface is 380-650 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of coke powder is 570 yuan/ton, and the price of rice materials is 410-430 yuan/ton, all of which are cash inclusive of tax at the factory price.

Future forecast

Although the overall recovery pace is slow, downstream enterprises are still resuming work and production one after another. With the progress of resumption of work, demand is expected to show a slight improvement. In this context, the supply side is weakening while the demand side is slightly strengthening, and magnesium prices are expected to rebound due to this impact.