According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of lithium carbonate has been falling again and again recently. As of March 26th, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China was 75200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.57% from 78800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 36.72% from 118000 yuan/ton in the same period last year; The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in China is 73300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.06% from 76400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 73300 yuan/ton from 108800 yuan/ton in the same period last year.

Supply side pressure remains high

The production of lithium carbonate continues to rise, reaching a nearly 5-year high.

Ore end: The resumption of mining operations by leading enterprises has led to an increase in production. Overseas mines are gradually arriving at the port, and the CIF price of Chinese spodumene and the spot price of African mineral ports have been continuously lowered.

Salt Lake End: The climate is warming up and entering a seasonal production cycle.

The marginal recovery on the demand side is limited in strength

Although the downstream production of positive electrode materials has performed well, the pressure brought by supply growth is still difficult to balance the supply growth rate, and spot market transactions are also relatively light. At the end of March, futures warehouse receipts will be centrally cancelled, further suppressing the spot market.

Importing low-cost resources continues to suppress domestic prices

In February 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 12328 tons (month on month -38.73%, year-on-year+6.37%). Although the short-term import volume fell month on month, the suppression effect of low-cost resources on domestic prices will continue under the expansion cycle of overseas mines.

The data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that under the dual negative of high supply and weak demand, the rebound of lithium carbonate prices is weak, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term.