Aluminum prices rose first and then fell in March
Aluminum prices first rose and then fell in March, and have recently experienced a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20576.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.03% from the market average price of 20570 yuan/ton on March 1.
In the early stage, aluminum prices continued their strong trend from January to February. Recently, aluminum prices have slightly fallen, and the overall price is fluctuating at a high level.
Fundamental Overview
Beneficial factors:
1. Domestic macro positive news is frequent. The effects of the “two new” policies continue to be evident. In January and February 2025, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size will continue to improve, and the decline in profits will narrow. The profits of equipment manufacturing and raw material manufacturing industries will shift from decline to increase, and the efficiency of industrial enterprises will show a stable recovery trend. The manufacturing PMI has rebounded. On March 31st, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data that the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for China’s manufacturing industry rose to 50.5% in March, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing industry’s prosperity level.
In February, the comprehensive PMI of the domestic aluminum processing industry rose to 61.6% and entered the expansion zone. Policy dividends and peak season effects promoted the recovery of aluminum consumption, and social inventories continued to decrease. As of March 31, 2025, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the mainstream domestic market was 806000 tons, which is 77000 tons lower than the social inventory of 883000 tons on February 27.
Negative factors:
1. The cost side is dragging down, and the raw material alumina market is weakening in search of a bottom, with limited support from the cost side for aluminum prices. Global alumina spot prices remain in a downward trend, and the export window is currently closed. This week, the price of bauxite has slightly declined, and cost support has weakened again. Supply side maintenance and new production coexist, social inventory continues to increase, and the alumina market is weak.
2. The US tariff policy is fluctuating and the overall trend is not conducive to the export of the aluminum industry chain. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, the cumulative export volume of unprocessed and rolled aluminum and aluminum materials in China in February 2025 was 408000 tons, a decrease of 9.53% month on month and 12.70% year-on-year; The cumulative export volume for the whole year of 2025 will reach 859000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.0%.
Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely in April
Short term fundamentals are supported, and we are observing the impact of macro factors. Long and short factors are intertwined, and it is expected that aluminum prices will mainly fluctuate widely in April.