In March, the asphalt market first suppressed and then rose, with an overall decline. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt # 70 in Shandong region was 3765 yuan/ton on March 1st, and as of March 31st, the ex factory price in Shandong region was 3675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.39% within the month.
In the first half of the year, crude oil continued to decline and the cost side was difficult to support. In the off-season of demand, the Shandong market continued to decline, and the asphalt market fell from a high level due to market competition for shipments. After the cost fell, refineries that reserved low-priced raw materials released an increase in contract volume for the far month, and the market continued to explore the bottom.
In the second half of the year, due to the rebound of crude oil and the low supply of asphalt itself, the futures and spot markets experienced a brief rebound, and spot support was still insufficient. The overall increase was limited, and the market ended in a downward trend in March.
From the perspective of Business Society, the current asphalt fundamentals have some support, but lack upward driving force. On the one hand, a slight increase in crude oil prices is an important driving force for asphalt prices. If crude oil experiences a slight decline, the futures asphalt market will inevitably follow suit. The US tariff policy has an impact on the economy and poses certain obstacles to the upward trend of crude oil. On the other hand, as demand enters the peak season, there may be an improvement in demand in the future, which will support the asphalt market. Overall, the short-term adjustment of asphalt is weak, while the long-term focus is still on the fluctuation trend of crude oil.