According to Announcement No. 13 of the Ministry of Commerce in 2020, the anti-dumping measures on acetone did not end on June 8, 2020, but continued to be implemented from June 8, 2020, for a period of 5 years. Therefore, the anti-dumping measures for acetone are still being implemented.
If the anti-dumping measures end on June 8th, there may be the following consequences:
1. Imports increased significantly: Imported acetone originating in Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, China may enter the Chinese market in large quantities. The producers in these regions are highly dependent on the Chinese Mainland market and have large capacity.
2. Intensified price competition pattern: Imported acetone may enter the Chinese market at a low price, which will impact the price system of acetone industry in Chinese Mainland, leading to a decline in the price of domestic similar products. The source of dumped imports of acetone will cause further damage to the acetone industry in Chinese Mainland in terms of market share decline and profit shrinkage.
If anti-dumping measures continue to be implemented, the above consequences will not occur. However, whether to continue implementing anti-dumping measures ultimately depends on the results of the review and investigation conducted by the Ministry of Commerce before the expiration date.
In the second quarter, as the weather turns hot and gradually enters the off-season of demand, coupled with the maintenance status of the Saudi Arabian unit and the planned production of the domestic Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Phenol Ketone Unit, the domestic supply will increase. Therefore, the import volume of acetone from June to August will decrease, and it is expected that the average monthly import volume of acetone in the second quarter will fluctuate around 35000 tons. In the second half of the year, if the anti-dumping measures end, there will be an increase in acetone imports, especially from overseas sources dumped into China, which will inevitably cause price shocks and lead to a downward shift in market focus.
If anti-dumping measures continue to be implemented, the above consequences will not occur. However, whether to continue implementing anti-dumping measures ultimately depends on the results of the review and investigation conducted by the Ministry of Commerce before the expiration date.