Analysis: This week (6.9-13), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was sluggish, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 0.97%. The main reason is obvious supply pressure and excessive market inventory. Recently, with the resumption of maintenance equipment, the supply side has shown loose performance. Coupled with the increase in urea to ammonia conversion by manufacturers, the supply has significantly increased, and the rise in ammonia volume has dragged down ammonia prices. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, prices remained firm, but as the weekend approached, companies were affected by inventory pressure and began to lower prices. Mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is 2300-2400 yuan/ton.
Prediction: In the recent off-season of the agricultural demand market, industrial demand has followed suit, and the supply is sufficient. However, the supply pressure may partially ease in the later stage. On the one hand, as prices hover at low levels or supply is tightened in the main production areas of the north, there will be an increase in enterprise inspections and price hikes. From the demand side perspective, downstream procurement may continue to be sluggish, maintaining reasonable procurement demand. There is limited room for order growth in the later stage, and industrial demand urgently needs to be followed up. Taking all factors into consideration, the performance of liquid ammonia may still be weak next week, and it cannot be ruled out that it may continue to decline.