Basic trend
In June, the domestic liquid ammonia market mainly fluctuated and rose, breaking out of a trend of first rising and then falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, liquid ammonia recorded a monthly increase of 3.34%. At the end of the month, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2300-2450 yuan/ton.
make a concrete analysis
In the first ten days, the liquid ammonia market began to gain momentum, and the overall operating rate of domestic manufacturers significantly declined, especially in the main production areas in the north, where the amount of ammonia released by enterprises was generally low. In addition, Fujian, Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, Hebei and Shanxi are experiencing supply shortages due to equipment maintenance or temporary malfunctions. The local demand has slightly increased, and the trading atmosphere has improved. The ex factory price of liquid ammonia has naturally increased several times. At the beginning of the month, the manufacturer raised the price by more than 100 yuan/ton in the first week. The market performance is in short supply.
In the middle of the month, there was a reversal in the liquid ammonia market, with a sharp downturn in the market and a widespread decline in various markets. In addition, the northwest and Inner Mongolia have also experienced declines along with the downturns in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and other regions. The main reason for the increase in supply pressure is that the operating rate in many major production areas in the north has rebounded, and malfunctioning enterprises have resumed work one after another. There are more ammonia enterprises converting to liquid ammonia, and the amount of ammonia has increased unprecedentedly. In addition, most of the facilities in Central China, Northwest China, and other regions have been operating steadily, and the increase in supply has led to a general accumulation of inventory among manufacturers. Manufacturers have generally lowered prices to clear inventory and reduce pressure. Most prices have fallen to the level before the market started. As the end of the month approaches, liquid ammonia maintains a narrow adjustment pattern, with slightly loose supply performance and weak market conditions.
Future forecast
Business analysts believe that from a supply side perspective, the current market operating rate remains at a medium high level, but many manufacturers have maintenance plans in July, and it is expected that the supply of liquid ammonia will show a downward trend in July.
From the demand side, agricultural demand will remain at the off-season level, and the demand for compound fertilizers will continue to decline. Phosphate fertilizers will show a moderate trend, and overall, the demand for liquid ammonia may remain sluggish.
Taking all factors into consideration, the future supply and demand of liquid ammonia will show a certain contraction trend in the near future, and prices will fluctuate with the intensification of the supply-demand game. Overall, the decrease in supply will be higher than the decrease in demand, and it is expected that the price of liquid ammonia will fluctuate strongly.