According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, lithium carbonate has shown a clear rebound trend recently. As of July 9th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate trading society was 62600 yuan/ton, up 1.51% from the beginning of the month and down 35.6% from the same period last year; The benchmark price of domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 60966 yuan/ton, up 2.52% from the beginning of the month and down 35% from the same period last year.
Obvious fluctuation signal appears on the supply side
Since July, some high cost enterprises have actively adjusted their production pace, such as the online rumor that a lithium salt factory in Jiangxi plans to shut down for maintenance for two months, which is expected to affect monthly production of about 1000 tons. In the first quarter of this year, approximately 3 to 4 mines in Australia reduced production, including Pilbara
The closure of the mine resulted in a 6-7 point decrease in lithium concentrate in the first and second quarters compared to the previous quarter, with some mines experiencing a decline in grade, such as Greenbushes, which experienced a 0.1 point decrease in grade compared to the previous quarter, leading to an average cost increase of 24%. The strong upward trend in mining prices provides some support for lithium ore prices.
Downstream demand remains stable
The production of the power end fell in July. Some battery companies adjust their production plans based on market demand and their own inventory situation, resulting in limited incremental demand for lithium carbonate. However, with the continuous development of the new energy vehicle market, there is still room for growth in the demand for lithium carbonate in the long run.
Energy storage demand remains strong
Although the pace of energy storage project construction has slowed down due to the cancellation of mandatory allocation policies domestically, in the long run, the domestic energy storage market still has great potential for development.
Due to changes in export policies, the demand for overseas energy storage has brought uncertainty to the demand for lithium carbonate.
Policy favorable factors
Domestic policy: The General Office of the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on June 23 to organize and carry out the 2025 New Energy Vehicle Consumption Season (July to December) in thousands of counties and towns, requiring the implementation of the policy of exchanging old cars for new ones. The People’s Bank of China and other six departments jointly issued the Guiding Opinions on Financial Support to Boost and Expand Consumption on June 24, encouraging financial institutions to carry out auto loan business, and appropriately reducing and remitting the liquidated damages arising from the early settlement of loans in the process of replacing old cars with new ones. These policies aim to stimulate the consumption of new energy vehicles and have a potential driving effect on the demand for lithium carbonate, but in the short term, the policy effect has not yet been fully reflected in the market.
Overseas policy: The extension of US tariff exemptions has to some extent supported the trend of energy storage competing for exports, which is favorable for the price of lithium carbonate. However, policy changes such as the US presidential election and the traceability requirements of the EU’s new battery law may disrupt demand. If the Trump administration suspends green energy subsidies and imposes tariffs, it will have a negative impact on the prospects of the US lithium battery market.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the lithium carbonate market still faces many uncertainties. If prices continue to rise, it may stimulate enterprises to resume production and invest in new production capacity, and the supply side will once again face incremental growth. In the short term, there is still a downward risk in lithium carbonate prices, and specific market changes still need to be monitored.