According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated and fell from July 14 to July 7, 2025. On July 14th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5560 yuan/ton, and on July 7th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77%. The toluene market has fluctuated downward this cycle, and the focus of negotiations has fallen. The recent shipment situation in Shandong region is not good, and the listing price was significantly reduced at the beginning of last week. With the decrease in prices, the enthusiasm for entering the market has improved significantly, and refinery shipments have rebounded. The demand in the oil blending industry is still acceptable, while others are weak. The downstream consumption situation in East and South China has remained lukewarm, with a lack of demand to boost the weak market situation.
Cost aspect: The international crude oil market has mainly fluctuated within the range of this cycle, with frequent fluctuations and limited impact on downstream markets. Market influencing factors have returned to the supply and demand side. As of July 11th, the settlement price of the August contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.45 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September is $70.36 per barrel.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of July 14th, East China Company quoted 5500 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5500 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5650-5700 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5600 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
On July 14th, the price of xylene at Sinopec Sales Company was temporarily stable, with a current execution price of 7250 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The operation of facilities such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical is stable, and sales are normal. The price remains unchanged compared to July 7th. As of July 11th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $811-813/ton FOB Korea and $836-838/ton CFR China, a decrease of $4/ton from July 4th.
Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil is volatile, with significant fluctuations and insufficient guidance for the market. Market influencing factors are returning to the supply and demand side. The recent performance of the supply side has been relatively stable, with no significant positive factors. The demand side has been relatively rigid in the near future, while the demand in the oil blending industry is still acceptable, and other aspects are relatively stable. Overall, the performance of supply and demand is relatively weak, and it is expected that the market will experience narrow fluctuations in the short term. The focus will be on the impact of downstream demand changes on the spot market.