According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region fluctuated at a high level. At the end of the month, with the correction of the non-ferrous sector, the market average price was 16775 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and 17250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a monthly decline of 2.75%.
This month’s market analysis
During the “Golden September” season, the market demand was sluggish. Despite the strong willingness of magnesium factories to raise prices, internal divisions began to emerge within the supply side in the context of continued sluggish procurement. In the retail market, low-priced products frequently emerge, and the price threshold of 17000 yuan is ultimately difficult to maintain; At the beginning of the month, there was a strong bearish atmosphere in the market, and the pace of price suppression during downstream inquiries significantly accelerated. Some factories actively chose to reduce prices for promotions in order to clear inventory; In the middle and late months, the prices of raw materials such as coal, dolomite, and ferrosilicon rose one after another, driving a slight rebound in magnesium ingot prices. However, terminal demand remained weak, and even before the National Day and Mid Autumn Festival, downstream stocking was not active. After a brief game stalemate, the mainstream transaction prices in the magnesium market have shown a stable to weak trend.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, due to the resumption of production by most magnesium plants in September and the significant recovery of profits in the magnesium market, magnesium plants that were previously shut down due to costs have gradually resumed production, driving output growth. Resulting in a month on month increase in magnesium production in September. Due to the sustained market conditions in the early stage, magnesium production has been hovering at a low level in the first half of 2025, and the industry has entered a long-term destocking stage. The dual impact of low production and low inventory has driven up magnesium prices and gradually restored production confidence in magnesium plants, ultimately resulting in magnesium production from January to September 2025 equaling the same period in 2024.
In September, the magnesium alloy market showed a trend of strong supply and demand. Among them, the surge in demand in terminal fields such as two wheeled electric vehicles and new energy vehicles has driven the demand growth rate of magnesium alloys to significantly exceed the supply growth rate. The overall market presents a tense situation of supply and demand shortage, which in turn drives processing fees to continue to rise. Entering October, magnesium alloy production is expected to achieve a slight increase. As the hot weather gradually recedes, the operating rate of top manufacturers is expected to steadily increase; Meanwhile, the recent increase in alloy processing fees has effectively improved the profit margin of processing. The alloy factories of the original magnesium manufacturers in Shaanxi are expected to release new production capacity in October. In view of this, it is expected that the subsequent alloy production will maintain an upward trend.
In terms of raw materials
The market price of ferrosilicon in September showed an alternating trend of rise and fall. At the beginning of the month, with the new round of electricity price settlement, the production cost of ferrosilicon was strongly supported. At the same time, the market demand has increased and the supply of goods is relatively tight. Under the combined effect of these factors, the price of ferrosilicon has shown strong performance.
Future forecast
In October, several original magnesium smelters in provinces such as Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia have formulated plans to resume production. With the resumption of production by these manufacturers, the supply of magnesium in the market is expected to experience significant growth. With a significant increase in supply, the operation of magnesium prices will undoubtedly face greater pressure. Overall, the supply and demand pattern of the magnesium market will once again shift towards a situation of strong supply and relatively weak demand. Therefore, it is expected that magnesium prices will face significant pressure in October and exhibit a trend of pressure operation.