Since October, the domestic PTA spot market prices have continued to explore low levels. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 17th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4381 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.65% from the beginning of the month. Due to insufficient cost support, the commissioning of new facilities, and weak demand, coupled with negative factors, PTA prices are running weakly.
The price trend of the crude oil market has declined. As of the 16th, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $56.99 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $61.06 per barrel. The crude oil market is affected by negative factors. On the one hand, OPEC+has launched a new round of production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day, but the market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply, and the crude oil market continues to decline; On the other hand, the easing of the situation between Israel and Palestine, coupled with weakened demand from the United States, has dragged down global economic and demand expectations due to US tariffs. In addition, the increase in US crude oil inventories has led to the end of the peak oil season in the United States, and the global economic outlook and oil demand are not optimistic, resulting in a rapid decline in international oil prices.
In terms of its own equipment, Yisheng Ningbo’s 2 # 2.2 million ton PTA plant reduced its load to around 80% on October 17th due to unforeseen circumstances. Hengli Petrochemical’s 1 # 2.2 million ton unit will shut down on October 9th. Yisheng New Materials’ 2 # 3.6 million ton PTA plant experienced a load reduction on October 7th due to unforeseen circumstances and resumed operations on October 14th. Hailun Petrochemical’s 3.2 million ton new unit will be tested and discharged at the end of July, with a continuous increase in load to 80% -90%. The overall operating rate of the industry is currently around 75%.
In terms of demand, downstream polyester industry equipment has experienced load increase and long shutdown equipment restart phenomena, but the progress of load increase is slow and maintained at around 87%. As the e-commerce shopping festival approaches, the consumer atmosphere in the terminal clothing and home textile industry is gradually becoming stronger. However, weaving enterprises still have limited new and supplementary orders, and their performance is lukewarm. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is around 64%.
Business analysts believe that there are still many uncertain factors such as tariffs, and the sentiment in the commodity market is suppressed. The loose supply and poor demand in the crude oil market have put pressure on the oil market. In addition, downstream confidence in the market is insufficient, procurement enthusiasm is average, and the PTA market lacks further driving force, with prices still mainly fluctuating weakly.