1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market adjusted mainly within the range this week (10.20-24), and the price did not change much compared to last week, with a slight increase in market prices during the week. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4542 yuan/ton, with a 0.13% increase in PVC prices this week.
2、 Market analysis
The ex factory price of PVC manufacturers has not changed much this week, with some minor adjustments controlled within 50 yuan/ton. The main reason is that the fundamentals have not improved significantly, and crude oil prices have rebounded. However, the PVC futures market has not yet shaken off the weak pattern and maintained a range bound volatile market this week. The price of PVC remains weak, and the overall range of volatility continues to narrow. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the spot PVC market has shown loose supply and demand, and most manufacturers are operating stably. There is not much pressure on supply and demand, and dealer offers are generally weak. Downstream demand performance is insufficient, and downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices. The enthusiasm for inquiry procurement is not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. Overall, it is still mainly based on basic needs. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4600-4700 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, as we enter October, the price of calcium carbide continues to decline. This week, the calcium carbide market still shows weakness, and prices continue to decline. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the decline this week was 0.31%. The weak prices of upstream raw materials have brought certain negative effects to PVC.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in terms of cost, upstream calcium carbide continues to be weak, and there is no signal of a rebound in the market, which will continue to suppress PVC prices in the later stage. From the perspective of supply and demand, the PVC spot market is lukewarm, mainly due to insufficient downstream operating rates and average demand. The supply-demand pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and it is expected that PVC prices will continue to maintain a range adjustment pattern next week.