According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 3rd to 7th, the domestic BDO price was adjusted to 7442 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 0.31% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.83%. There are still issues such as device restart and load reduction, but the capacity utilization rate is still relatively low. The stable market mentality of suppliers continues, and downstream industries are losing money. Maintaining contract follow-up and weak willingness to purchase spot goods. Supply and demand negotiation game, narrow consolidation of domestic BDO market.
In terms of supply and equipment, the industry’s capacity utilization rate remains at a low level of 50%, supporting the stable market mentality of suppliers. The supply side of BDO is expected to be affected by favorable factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: With the increase in furnace opening, the supply has significantly increased, accelerating the downward trend of domestic calcium carbide prices. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market is mainly sorted out. As of 10:00 am on November 7th, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2097 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol are relatively weak, and the cost of BDO is affected by negative factors.
On the demand side, downstream industries have seen a slight decline in PBT production, while other facilities are operating steadily with no significant changes in demand. However, some downstream companies such as PTMEG, GBL, NMP, PU pulp, etc. have experienced a downturn in market conditions due to their own supply and demand factors, resulting in a further compression of profit margins. Therefore, under cost pressure, downstream industries are following up on contract orders, with weak willingness to purchase spot goods and resistance to high prices, which suppresses the trend of raw materials. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Future forecast: With the restart of some devices, the supply will increase significantly, exacerbating the wait-and-see mentality in the market. The production of downstream industries such as PTMEG and PBT has increased, leading to an increase in raw material digestion. However, many downstream industries are facing cost pressures, and there is strong bargaining sentiment when entering the market. Both the supply and demand sides are increasing, and the supply-demand game is continuing. Business analysts at BDO expect that the domestic BDO market will remain stagnant and consolidate.