Nickel prices have rocked between 95,000 and 100,000 since the end of December, and the current range of shocks has narrowed. In addition, we have previously suggested in daily and weekly reports that we should focus on buying opportunities. We believe that with the downstream stainless steel negative gradually disappear, nickel price can be expected to the future of the main remaining rainy season is over, but the end of the rainy season mainly in the nickel-iron, we believe that the relationship between nickel and iron and nickel price will be weakened, nickel price more and more have a breakthrough foundation.

The main logic is:

First, the LME to inventory faster: Because of the prospect of nickel demand for electric vehicles, foreign nickel beans inventory decline faster, from the point of view of supply and demand, the current inventory decline speed, clearly beyond the actual current actual demand, so the expected factors become the current inventory of pushing hands.

Second, the Indonesian two stage stainless steel impact or gradual landing: through the December 2017 stainless steel Market observation, we believe that the Indonesian two phase of stainless steel impact may have gradually landed, before the impact on the market is mainly reflected in the forward price of stainless steel futures on the weak, and with the forward sales of stainless steel, As well as the high price of raw materials, the current long-term stainless steel futures have been higher than the spot. This means that the impact of stainless steel or has actually landed.

Third, the rainy season to the end of the expected maximum negative force: Currently, because the Philippines is still in the rainy season, the nickel ore supply is low, the port inventory is relatively low; but this is only seasonal, and Indonesia’s nickel ore export quotas have reached more than 26 million tons, which will deepen the future of the supply of This is the future nickel price can be expected greater pressure.

Four, the future of the three-dimensional battery demand for nickel to boost the expected unchanged: from the way of supply growth of nickel sulfate, especially foreign supply, mainly is expected to be mainly BHP Billiton, that is, the current supply of nickel sulfate is the main route to and refining nickel competition for raw materials, so the increase of nickel sulfate production will squeeze the supply of refined nickel.

V. Comprehensive CONCLUSIONS

1, nickel price long period to see a large increase in the view of the same, mainly the supply of refined nickel will be bound, and demand is increasing, the overall inventory pattern is still continuing.

2, we believe that the Indonesian stainless steel two-phase impact or has landed, the future residual pressure is mainly the end of the rainy season, but the relationship between the price and the nickel decreased,

Therefore, we think that nickel price in the shock for a period of time, initially with the basis of interval breakthrough.