1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block list data, this week’s domestic toluene continued the upward trend of last week. The price of toluene was 3910 yuan / ton on January 17, and 4037.5 yuan / ton on this Sunday (January 24), up 3.71% from 127.5 yuan / ton last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Within the week, Sinopec’s Toluene price increased by 150-250 yuan / ton. At the beginning of this week, the toluene market was very strong, with strong atmosphere, and the focus of negotiation was pushed up. Near the weekend, prices soared and fell. In terms of external market, as of January 22, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 548 US dollars / ton, up 15 US dollars / ton or 2.81% compared with January 15; the price of imported toluene from East China was 554 US dollars / ton, up 22 US dollars / ton or 4.14% compared with January 15. During the week, the external price continued last week’s rise, which was supported by the favorable conditions, and the price of toluene continued to rise.

In terms of crude oil, this week’s crude oil news guidance is weak, and the market hopes that the new US fiscal stimulus plan will be implemented. Compared with January 15, Brent rose by $0.705/barrel, or 1.29%; WTI fell by $0.15/barrel, or 0.29%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell slightly this week, with domestic goods at 12533.33 yuan / ton, down 1.05% from last week and up 7.12% from the same period last year. The range consolidation of East China market was boosted by the favorable support of suppliers. The overall offer of the industry was up, followed by the rising part of the downstream. There was an increase in the market inquiry of just needed goods. On the whole, the transaction was still cautious.

In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price rose this week compared with last week. Sinopec’s listed price was about 4700 yuan / ton, up 500 yuan / ton, or 10.64%, compared with last week, with a year-on-year decline of 24.64%. By the end of the weekend, the closing prices of PX market in Asia were US $671-673 / T FOB Korea and US $689-691 / T CFR China. This week, the trend of PX external price remained high, and about 40% of domestic products needed to be imported. The higher external price brought some positive support to the domestic market.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Affected by the public health incident and the rain and snow weather in the north, some domestic downstream terminal plants are expected to shut down, and the toluene market demand is weak. In addition, domestic trade ships will arrive in Hong Kong, and the price is expected to decline slightly next week. Continue to pay attention to the downstream purchasing situation, as well as the impact of crude oil and external market on the price of toluene.

During the week (1.18-1.22), the price of NBR was weak and fell. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of NBR was 18866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 18466.67 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a price drop of 2.12%.

The ex factory price of NBR in China is basically stable. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of January 22, the price of NBR of Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was stable: n41e reported 16600 yuan / ton; 3305e reported 17200 yuan / ton; 3308e reported 18100 yuan / ton; the ex factory price of NBR of Ningbo shunze was stable, and the ex factory price of NBR of 3355 was 18000 yuan / ton. At present, the ex factory price of NBR is stable, but the market price is slightly weaker. The mainstream market price of NBR n41e is 15600-15900 yuan / ton, and that of shunze 3355 is around 17000 yuan / ton.

Raw material prices fell slightly, and the cost side continued to drag down NBR. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of January 22, the butadiene price was 6185 yuan / ton, down 5.18% from 6523 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Finally, in the near future, the operating rate of NBR downstream rubber products has decreased, the demand side has slightly softened, and the willingness of downstream to replenish more warehouses is not big, and the support for NBR has weakened.

Future forecast: NBR analysts believe that the price of raw materials is lower, but the downstream demand is weaker than that in the earlier stage, and the price of NBR may be adjusted weakly in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise this week, and the price of electric carbon of some manufacturers has exceeded 70000 yuan / ton. On January 21, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 63600 yuan / ton, which was 6.35% higher than that at the beginning of the week (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 59800 yuan / ton on January 17). On January 21, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 68300 yuan / ton, which was 7.39% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 63600 yuan / ton on January 17). On the 20th, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was around 61000 ~ 68000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market was around 65000 ~ 73000 yuan / ton.

From the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continues to rise in recent years, and the overall market is bullish. With the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream purchasing intention is strengthened, and the demand for replenishment continues. At present, the transaction price in the market varies from high to low, and the purchase price gap of various types of material factories is relatively large. With the continuous increase of the downstream market, the demand for lithium carbonate in the lithium battery industry has increased, and the tight supply structure may continue.

The price of lithium hydroxide in the downstream also rose slightly, the overall supply and demand structure gradually improved, the superimposed ore price rose, the cost support and lithium carbonate price rose, which led to the price of lithium hydroxide also showed an upward trend. As for the lithium iron phosphate power market, due to the rising price of lithium carbonate and higher downstream demand, most lithium iron enterprises are facing tight shipment. The downstream battery enterprises have low acceptance of the increase, the price of iron lithium enterprises is relatively strong, and the zero order transaction in the market is not high.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the lithium carbonate commodity index on January 20 was 161.02, up 3.06 points from yesterday, down 60.25% from 405.10 points (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 63.41% from 98.54 points, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

According to lithium carbonate analysts of business news agency, at present, the market price of lithium carbonate still has a rising trend. With the domestic lithium salt trend gradually improving, in the form of tight supply structure, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may still be in an upward trend in the short term.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

On January 20, the acrylic acid market was stable. According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of January 20, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 9433.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day, and decreased by 4.07% compared with December 20, 2020. At present, there is no obvious change in the quotation of acrylic acid enterprises, mainly for stable price delivery, strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream, and general purchasing enthusiasm.

Upstream propylene, on January 20, Shandong propylene market price was mainly stable. According to the price chart of the business society, the propylene price declined all the way at the end of December, and began to rise on New Year’s day. It rose by about 100 yuan / ton on the 4th. Later, it was stable or rose, and the overall price rose in a ladder shape. Today, the price rose again. This month, it has risen by about 250-300 yuan / ton, but it has not moved today. The market transaction is between 7450-7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7450 yuan / ton. Now the factory has no pressure on inventory, and the delivery is smooth.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices on January 19, 2021, there were 26 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 4 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 kinds of commodities increased were isopropanol (17.52%), acetone (12.71%) and paraformaldehyde (7.74%). There were 13 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 1 kind of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decrease were chloroform (- 6.25%), sulfuric acid (- 3.94%), propane (- 3.37%). The average daily rise and fall was 0.57%.

3、 Future forecast

Acrylic acid analysts of business news agency believe that the recent rise of raw material propylene price, strengthened cost support, downstream on-demand procurement, and average market inquiry and transaction performance. It is expected that in the short term, acrylic acid market will be mainly stable, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

1、 Price trend

The price of aniline in Shandong Province declined slightly at the beginning of this week and rebounded at the end of the week, according to the data of business news agency’s block list. On January 17, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7800-7900 yuan / ton; in Nanjing, the price of aniline was 8000-8100 yuan / ton, with an average price of 21.54% higher than that in the same period of last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, the rise of last week was continued at the beginning of this week. Supported by the rise of crude oil, the price of pure benzene continued to rise. Later, with the decline of crude oil and the decline of external market, the domestic market mentality turned cautious, and the prices of individual factories decreased at the weekend. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was increased by 100 yuan / ton to 4650 yuan / ton, and the price in parts of North China was increased to 4500 yuan / ton. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port was about 2000 tons higher than last week. On Sunday (January 17), the price of pure benzene was 4230-4650 yuan / ton (average price was 4506 yuan / ton), up 82 yuan / ton or 1.85% from last week.

The price of nitric acid this week was stable compared with last week, and the price of nitric acid production in East China was 2050 yuan / ton on Friday (January 15). The price was flat at the beginning of the month, up 29.47% from the same period last year.

Affected by the public health events in Hebei and the rain and snow weather in the north, the transportation is affected, and the demand of the downstream in the north is limited. However, the relative load of aniline enterprises is not high, the spot supply is reduced, the inventory is controllable, and the price is firm.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, affected by the public health events in Hebei Province and the rain and snow weather in the north, the downstream terminals may stop ahead of time, and the pure benzene enterprises may reduce the price in order to promote the shipment. And the external market has continued to soften. The price of pure benzene is expected to be weak next week. Pay attention to the situation of downstream stock preparation and shutdown before the festival, and the trend of crude oil, external market and styrene.

Jiangsu Fuqiang new materials will soon have new aniline shipment, focus on the market spot supply.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business association, on January 15, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 13933 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week and the same as that at the beginning of the month, down 9.13% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market of salicylic acid was mainly stable, and the price of a few levels rose. Recently, the market offer of raw material phenol has remained stable with acceptable support. The demand side has strong demand for goods preparation before the Spring Festival. The inquiry enthusiasm has increased. The trading atmosphere is good. The manufacturer’s offer is firm. The supply of pharmaceutical grade goods is tight. The price has risen slightly. Large orders yield profits. The market is good. According to the price monitoring of business association, as of January 15, the quotations of salicylic acid industrial enterprises were mostly in the range of 12000-15000 yuan / ton, with little fluctuation. The quotations of pharmaceutical grade enterprises were mostly in the range of 23000-25500 yuan / ton, and those of sublimation grade enterprises were mostly in the range of 15000-20000 yuan / ton. The actual transactions were mainly through negotiation.

On the 15th, the phenol Market offer continued to maintain stability, but some of the holders were lower than the turnover, and the market was slightly loose in a narrow range. However, the supply pressure of the holders was not large as a whole. The downstream inquiry just needed to follow up, and the market was slightly weak in the afternoon. However, in view of the cost and supply side problems, the market did not adjust significantly. It is estimated that the domestic phenol Market is weak, and the reference price of phenol Market in East China is 5900-6000 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 02nd week of 2021 (1.11-1.15), there were 40 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, among which 8 kinds of commodities rose by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the total number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were DMF (18.80%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (8.37%), epoxy resin (8.05%). There were 17 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were butadiene (- 11.42%), ox (- 6.00%) and chloroform (- 2.94%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.93%.

3、 Future forecast

Salicylic acid analysts of business news agency think: in the near future, the raw material side is stable, the demand side is strong, the demand for goods is strong before the Spring Festival, the inquiry enthusiasm is rising, the trading atmosphere is good, the manufacturer’s offer is firm, individual rise, the market is good, and the price is expected to be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose slightly this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 16566.67 yuan / ton last Friday and 16900 yuan / ton this Friday. The price rose by 2.01% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall trend of domestic yellow phosphorus market is upward, the spot market is tight, and the business owners issue orders in the early stage, and the price fixing operation is the main operation. Traders mainly wait and see, downstream purchase on demand, appropriate replenishment. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 17000 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Sichuan is about 16900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Guizhou is about 16800 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole is stable, and the downstream procurement is mainly cautious. The stock tide before the festival does not appear, and there are not many new orders. Up to now, in Hubei Province, 30% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate quotation is 380-390 yuan / ton; in Guizhou Province, 30% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation is about 320-360 yuan / ton, and the price has been stable for nearly a week; 28% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation is about 280-320 yuan / ton, and the transaction price is slightly lower.

In terms of coke, in the current situation that the new production capacity has not been fully released, it is expected that the coke market will continue to operate strongly in the short term. In the future, we will focus on the start-up of downstream steel plants, the production of new production capacity and the change of coke inventory in various links. As of January 13, the mainstream price of Liupanshui coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2520 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the previous trading day, and increased by 270 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month. As of January 15, the ports of Shandong and Shandong are still relatively strong. In terms of price, the mainstream spot ex warehouse price of port quasi primary metallurgical coke is about 2880 yuan / ton, and the price of primary coke is 2980 yuan / ton. The inventory of the two ports decreased today, mainly to the southern region. At present, the overall supply of goods available for sale in the ports is still low.

This week, the market of phosphoric acid is normal, the market of phosphoric acid is cautious, and there is no obvious change in the price. Phosphate is normally produced, most of which are for their own use, some of which are exported, and the actual transaction is mainly through negotiation.

3、 Future forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that the market price of yellow phosphorus will rise this week. With the decrease of market supply, the spot is tight, the yellow phosphorus enterprises are reluctant to sell obviously, and the price fixing operation is dominant. Forecast: in the short term, the price of yellow phosphorus will still increase slightly.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s block list, the domestic bromine market has been at a high level recently. As of January 13, the average price in Shandong was about 33666 yuan / ton, up 1% from the beginning of this month and 10.58% from the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

At present, the domestic bromine market is stable and strong as a whole. Except for Dongying area and individual enterprises maintaining production, other enterprises have stopped. The spot supply in the market is reluctant to sell, and the inventory of enterprises is exhausted. However, the downstream market just needs to be flat, and the transaction in the industry is flat. At present, the quotation of mainstream bromine enterprises is about 33500-34000 yuan / ton.

In the upstream, the sulfur market is strong, the overall inventory is low, the trade is still good, and the shipment is smooth. The future market focuses on the follow-up situation of the downstream, which is about 1003 yuan / ton at present. The downstream market of sulfuric acid is good, and the purchasing enthusiasm of sulfuric acid is normal. In the short term, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, the Shandong market will rise slightly, which is about 317 yuan / ton at present; The price of caustic soda is weak and stable, the overall ex factory price of caustic soda is stable and small, the cost side changes little, the downstream purchase demand is general, about 485 yuan / ton at present, it is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda is weak. The main downstream flame retardant market of bromine is in a weak and stable operation, the start-up of the industry is flat, the demand for bromine is general, the overall receiving intention is insufficient, and the resistance to the high price of bromine is obvious.

3、 Future forecast

Business community bromine industry analysts believe that the domestic bromine market is basically in a state of shutdown, and the spot and inventory are at a low level. However, the downstream market is short of just demand, which has obvious resistance to the high price of bromine, and the supply and demand game in the industry is obvious. It is expected that bromine will still be strong in a short period of time.

1、 Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde this week is 5333 yuan / ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

Shandong formaldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene, offers 5400 yuan / ton of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax, which is the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax 5300 yuan / ton, the price is the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The ex factory price of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 5400 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Polyoxymethylene market to go goods, manufacturers offer stability.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic methanol market was weak this week. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong at the beginning of the week was 2282 yuan / ton, while the average price of methanol producers in Shandong at the end of the week was 2270 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 0.55%.

3、 Future forecast

Affected by the weak operation of raw material methanol market, polyoxymethylene analysts of business community expect that the price of polyoxymethylene may decline.

1、 Price trend

 
The comprehensive price of potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. The average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation this week is 2160 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market temporarily stable, January 8 potassium chloride commodity index was 68.57.

2、 Market analysis

This week’s quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers is temporarily stable: Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride weekend ex factory quotation is 2020 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend distribution quotation is 2300 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction of the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of January, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly. The KCl market is facing the pressure of three big mountains, namely, Hong Kong’s large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. KCl analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term KCl market, the KCl market may be dominated by high consolidation.