1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, acrylic acid market is weak. According to the data of business club’s block list, as of January 8, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 9433.33 yuan / ton, down 4.07% compared with January 1 and 0.70% compared with December 8, 2020. At present, the price of raw material propylene has weakened. In addition, the downstream operating rate has declined, the demand has weakened, the downstream purchasing has strong wait-and-see sentiment, the market inquiry and transaction performance are general, and the market is weak.

Upstream propylene, Shandong propylene market had a downward trend on January 8. According to the price chart of the business club, the propylene price declined all the way at the end of December, and began to rise on New Year’s day. On the 4th, the price was increased by about 100 yuan / ton. On the 5th and 6th, the price was mainly stable, with only a few enterprises going up. On the 8th, some prices fell. Now, the market transaction is between 7250 yuan / ton and 7500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is still around 7250 yuan / ton. Factory inventory is general, stable delivery.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices on January 7, 2021, there were 18 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, of which one was more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were propylene glycol (10.29%), crude benzene (3.80%) and cryolite (3.02%). A total of 14 kinds of commodities declined month on month, with phenol (- 3.21%), DMF (- 2.90%) and n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 2.78%) as the top three products. The average daily rise or fall was 0.12%.

3、 Future forecast

According to acrylic acid analysts of business news agency, at present, the price of raw material propylene is on the decline, the cost support is weakened, the downstream demand procurement is the main, and the market atmosphere is light. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be weak and stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of January 7, the reference ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 12500 yuan / ton, which was increased by 1167 yuan / ton or 5.88% compared with January 1 (reference price was 11333 yuan / ton), and decreased by 133 yuan / ton or 1.06% compared with December 1 (reference price was 12633 yuan / ton).

Low start-up cost supports propylene glycol’s upward trend in the first week of January

After the new year’s Day festival, the domestic industrial grade propylene glycol market ushered in a rise. The trend of raw material propylene oxide after the festival was stable and upward, which gradually gave strong support to the cost of propylene glycol. At present, some production plants of propylene glycol are in low start-up or shutdown maintenance status, the overall inventory of propylene glycol is low, and the supply is tight. Although the downstream is purchased on demand and there are not many large orders, the current supply of propylene glycol is tight Due to less pressure, propylene glycol factories and secondary market have increased the ex factory price of propylene glycol by 300-800 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of propylene glycol in Shandong Province refers to 12000-13100 yuan / ton (loose water). As of January 7, the ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol refers to 12500 yuan / ton. Compared with January 1 (reference price 11333 yuan / ton), the average price of propylene glycol has increased by 1167 yuan / ton, or 5 88%; compared with December 1 (reference price: 12633 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 133 yuan / ton, or 1.06%.

On the upstream side, after the new year’s day, the domestic propylene oxide market continued the trend of the end of December 2020, and the overall operation was stable, medium and strong, giving sufficient support to the cost of propylene glycol. As of January 7, the reference price of domestic propylene oxide was 19066.67 yuan / ton, up 0.88% compared with January 1 (18900 yuan / ton).

Internationally, on January 6, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $50.63/barrel, up US $0.70. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the settlement price of the main contract at 54.30 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.70 U.S. dollars. Oil prices continued to push up on Wednesday, with WTI rising above the $50 mark, mainly because US crude oil inventories fell by 8 million barrels for the fourth consecutive week, according to data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

It is expected that the propylene glycol market will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term

At present, supported by cost, propylene glycol is running at a high level. Before the downstream demand is fully opened, it is expected that the market will continue to push up. Therefore, the propylene glycol Data Engineer of business society believes that in the short term, the propylene glycol market will be stable and small, with narrow adjustment as the main factor.

Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business association: after the new year’s day, the Spring Festival stock is around the corner, the cobalt market is very good, and the cobalt price is soaring. As of January 6, the price of cobalt was 289666.66 yuan / ton, up 6.23% from 272666.66 yuan / ton on January 1. In 2021, the cobalt market will have a good start, and the cobalt price will soar.

The situation in Africa affects the supply of cobalt Market

Secretary General’s special representative for the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Leila Zerrougui, pointed out at the Security Council’s briefing on the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo that the political tension in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has increased, including the rift within the ruling coalition and the threat of the president dissolving the national assembly. The increasing political risks in the DRC affect the supply of cobalt Market and increase the pressure of cobalt price rise.

Since the end of November, the epidemic situation in Africa has worsened again. Namibia, Congo (DRC), South Africa, Senegal, Zimbabwe and other African countries have tightened epidemic control measures to cope with the deterioration of the epidemic. The deterioration of the epidemic situation is bad for the supply of cobalt, the transportation risk increases, the transportation cost of cobalt ore increases, and the driving force of cobalt price increases.

A new round of stimulus policies for economic recovery

The European Central Bank announced the interest rate resolution to maintain the interest rate unchanged, increase the emergency anti epidemic bond purchase program (PEPP) by 500 billion euros to 1.85 trillion euros, and extend the term for nine months. The PEPP program will be extended to March 2022 at least, and the quantitative easing policy will continue until shortly before the interest rate rises. The Federal Reserve extended the termination date of the main street loan program from 2021 to January 8, and the United States launched a $900 billion second round of fiscal stimulus. Countries around the world have successively launched a new round of economic stimulus policies, which will further increase market flow and stimulate the economic recovery. The production and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue to increase. The demand of cobalt market is expected to pick up in the future, and the market of cobalt is good.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business news agency, believes that with the Spring Festival stock coming soon, domestic cobalt market demand rises slightly in the short term, and cobalt price rises more vigorously; on the supply side, affected by the worsening epidemic situation in Africa, Africa’s logistics transportation is limited, and the political risk of DRC is increasing, which affects the supply of cobalt, and the rising pressure of cobalt Market surges. Under the background of intensified global economic recovery, the production and sales of new energy vehicle industry are expected to continue to increase, the production and sales of mobile phones are expected to recover, the global demand of cobalt market is expected to increase greatly in 2021, and the rising power of cobalt Market in the future is huge. Generally speaking, the supply or short-term shortage of cobalt market, the long-term and short-term strong demand of cobalt market, and the rising power of cobalt market are huge. It is expected that the rising space of cobalt Market in the future is huge, and the cobalt price may hit the high of 350000 yuan / ton before the year.

Affected by the new epidemic situation, the global economy will be hit hard in 2020, the performance of international crude oil market will be ups and downs, the breakdown of OPEC + negotiations, ultra scale production reduction, “negative oil price”, and the farce ridden US election will come in droves. In 2020, the domestic asphalt market is directly affected by the collapse of crude oil price, and the asphalt price is greatly reduced, and it has been in the low operation stage in the later stage. According to the price comparison chart of business club in 2018, 2019 and 2020, the asphalt market price in 2020 is far lower than that in 2018 and 2019.

Let’s first review the trend of asphalt Market in 2020

Overall, according to the data of business news agency, as of December 31, 2020, the domestic asphalt price is 2462 yuan / ton, with an annual decrease of 27.23%.

1. In February, China is in the Spring Festival holiday, and the national weather temperature is low, the asphalt market demand is in the traditional off-season, the domestic asphalt supply and demand are weak, the asphalt market price remains stable, and the domestic epidemic has little impact on the asphalt market price. 3. In April, all parts of the country actively resumed work and production, domestic road construction projects are in the preparation stage, and domestic asphalt market demand gradually recovers. However, with the breakdown of OPEC + production reduction agreement negotiation, Russia and Saudi Arabia have a big price war, and Saudi Arabia has issued a statement to increase production on a large scale to gain more market share. The two sides wrestle with each other to return to the negotiation table, and oil prices plummet. The cost of asphalt lost its support, and the domestic asphalt price fell rapidly. In mid May 2020, the price of asphalt fell to the lowest point in the year, with a quotation of 2202 yuan / ton

From June to August, although the epidemic situation was still fermenting, the economy continued to recover, and the oil price entered a relatively stable stage. In July, OPEC + extended a month’s super scale production reduction (9.7 million barrels), and the production reduction scale dropped to 7.7 million barrels / day from August. During this period, oil prices rose and fell, mainly in the range of shocks. In addition, the domestic asphalt road construction projects have been launched one after another, and the domestic asphalt market has ushered in the peak demand season. The double positive support promotes the rebound of domestic asphalt market price.

9. After October, the international crude oil price fluctuated at a low level, which limited the support for the asphalt cost side. In addition, the new production capacity of the asphalt market opens a new round of supply pressure. In addition, the operating rate of refineries continues to rise. Affected by domestic rainfall and floods, the downstream demand is general in the peak season of asphalt demand in 2020, and many other adverse factors, the overall price of asphalt market fell by 7.5% in September and October

After November, with cold weather and stagnant road construction projects, the domestic asphalt market demand entered the off-season, but the new crown vaccine made a major breakthrough. In addition, OPEC + reached a production reduction agreement in early December, which also released a positive signal to the oil market, and the international oil price opened an upward channel. Supported by the cost side of asphalt, domestic asphalt prices rose slightly again, with an overall increase of about 6%.

The monthly rise and fall of asphalt are as follows:

Prospects for 2021

Crude oil demand continues to recover in 2021

The epidemic situation in 2020 has always existed. At present, the world economy in 2021 may still be shrouded in the shadow of the epidemic situation. Although the vaccine has made a major breakthrough and entered the vaccination process, there are still many variables in the current epidemic situation. For example, the number of infected people is still increasing, Europe and the United States are still implementing restrictive measures, and the virus variants also bring new challenges to the vaccine. The most important factor of oil price around 2021 is still demand. Recently, OPEC has lowered its oil demand forecast for 2021 again. Due to the continuous impact of the new epidemic, the rebound speed of global oil demand in 2021 will be slower than previously expected. Its latest monthly report shows that the demand will increase by 5.9 million barrels / day to 95.89 million barrels / day next year. This growth is expected to be 350000 B / D lower than a month ago. The recovery of demand has a long way to go.

The center of gravity of asphalt price rises in 2021

In 2020, the price trend of domestic asphalt market is mainly affected by the price of crude oil, and domestic road construction projects are not affected by the epidemic. With the development of vaccines in various countries, the world economy will gradually recover in 2021, the demand of international crude oil market will continue to improve, or will return to the pre epidemic level, and the rebound of international crude oil price is bound to pull up the domestic asphalt price center. Therefore, it is expected that the price center of domestic asphalt market will rise in 2021 to the level at the beginning of 2020.

Adipic acid market trend chart

According to the data of the business club’s block list, in December, the domestic adipic acid market fluctuated downward. According to the monitoring, the samples generally had downward movements. Overall, the price fell by – 2.90%, and many regions were in the state of on-site or more, trading price for quantity. And most of the dealers’ quotation seems to be loose and limited, but the profit giving behavior continues, and East China, South China and other regions are cold. According to the monitoring of business association, the quotation range of adipic acid market is 7800-8300 yuan / ton.

In terms of market supply, in December, the operation rate of adipic acid manufacturers remained stable, about 80%. The market supply was relatively sufficient, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers was acceptable. At present, there are signs that the inventory of manufacturers is gradually over to dealers. Therefore, dealers are also showing signs of accumulating high prices. It can not be ruled out that in the later stage, due to the overstocking of inventory, they continue to make profits to clear the inventory.

Pure benzene market trend chart

In terms of cost, the upstream crude oil price remained high, and the rising oil price provided cost support for the downstream chemical industry. However, at present, the impact of crude oil is gradually weakening. According to the monitoring of business community, the price of pure benzene product in the upstream of adipic acid dropped rapidly in the middle and late ten days, with a drop of more than 8% from December 8 to December 31. The cost pressure (as shown in the figure above) has been eased, and the adipic acid manufacturers have been able to operate There is room for respite, so it is possible to reduce the price of pure benzene and remove the inventory. At present, there is no sign of the bottom of pure benzene’s downward trend. In the later stage, the cost advantage may be lost, and the price of adipic acid may continue to be under pressure.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of downstream demand, terminal demand declined slightly, and the peak of polyurethane procurement gradually came to an end. With the haze in the north, there were more site stoppages, and the demand declined. The market purchasing volume retreated slightly. In December, the PA66 market also gradually cooled down, and the high price fell. So far, according to the data of business society, the decrease in December was 3.02%. In the later period, as the festival approaches, the market operation rate may further decline, and the possibility of price downward again cannot be ruled out.

In the later stage, the rising market of adipic acid is basically coming to an end. At present, it is still dominated by high volatility. In the later stage, the price may be subject to the suppression of demand, so it is difficult to attack the market again. At present, it is in the middle of winter, and the downstream operating rate may continue to decline. At present, there are signs of decline in the cost of pure benzene. Downstream PA66 has also opened a downward channel to feed adipic acid In the near future, it will maintain a high level, or slightly loose, and the transition before the festival will be mainly smooth.

Magnesium market trend in 2020

On December 31, 2020, the price of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in the main domestic production areas will be stable in cash and tax inclusive, with the overall range of 15400-15900 yuan / ton, mainly through real order negotiation.

The specific price range of each region is as follows:

In fugu area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 15400-15600 yuan / ton; in Taiyuan area, it is 15700-15800 yuan / ton; in Wenxi area, it is 15800-15900 yuan / ton; in Ningxia area, it is 15500-15700 yuan / ton.

Magnesium ingot is original magnesium ingot according to national standard (GB / t3499-2011); non pickling, no wooden pallet and non payment acceptance price, mainly based on single negotiation.

According to the data of business news agency, on December 31, the average price of domestic magnesium ingot Market was 15550 yuan / ton, which was 17.71% higher than the average price of 14715 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 25.95% higher than the valley value of (9.21) 12333.33 yuan / ton, and 9.65% higher than the average price of (1.1) 14166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year.

Monthly rise and fall of magnesium ingots during the year

Magnesium price enters platform shock zone in March

In December, the influencing factors of cost side factors were enlarged, coupled with environmental protection and weather factors, the magnesium factory’s willingness to support the price rose, and the price was tentatively increased for shipment; then the long short game intensified, and the platform ran in shock.

In the middle of November, foreign orders were purchased intensively, the amount of inquiries increased, and the second round of bottoming rebound started. After nearly two weeks, the market has gradually entered the stage of long short deadlock. In early December, the price of raw materials rose, driving the price of magnesium market to continue to rise. At present, the market trading performance slowed down compared with the previous period, and downstream customers began to operate cautiously.

Future forecast

In the near future, the probability of stable and good operation increases, and the oscillation range is 15400-15900 yuan / ton.

Price trend of calcium carbide in Northwest China in 2020

【1】 The price of calcium carbide will rise by 43.37% in 2020

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will fluctuate and rise in 2020. As of December 30, the average price quoted by the mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers was 3890.00 yuan / ton, up 1176.67 yuan / ton or 43.37% compared with 2713.33 yuan / ton quoted at the beginning of the year.

【2】 The price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell 2.46% in the first quarter

In the first quarter of 2020, the market of calcium carbide first rose and then fell. The ex factory price of calcium carbide first rose from 2713.33 yuan / ton on January 1 to 2890.00 yuan / ton on February 20, up 176.67 yuan / ton, or 6.51%; then it fell to 2646.67 yuan / ton on March 31, with a decline of 243.33 yuan / ton, or 8.42%. Overall, calcium carbide market fell slightly in the first quarter, down 2.46%.

Statistics of China’s calcium carbide export in the first quarter of 2020

Monthly export quantity (ton) export amount (USD)

From January to February: 11180.575 to 5778764

March 15421.3 8781165

Total 26601.875 14559929

【3】 Calcium carbide prices in Northwest China fell 0.25% in the second quarter

In the second quarter, the market of calcium carbide first fell, then rose, and finally stabilized. The ex factory price first fell from 2646.67 yuan / ton on April 1 to 2316.67 yuan / ton on April 23, with the quoted price falling by 330 yuan / ton, or 12.47%; then it rose to 2690.00 yuan / ton on June 8, with an increase of 373.33 yuan / ton, or 16.11%; finally, the price of calcium carbide remained at about 2670 yuan / ton until the end of the quarter. On the whole, the market of calcium carbide in the second quarter dropped by 0.25%.

Statistics of China’s calcium carbide export in the second quarter of 2020

Monthly export quantity (ton) export amount (USD)

April 12068.8 6521164

May 19327.85 4516985

Jun. + 9031.325 4665872

Total: 30427.975 15704021

【4】 Northwest calcium carbide prices rose 5.40% in the third quarter

In the third quarter, the market of calcium carbide first fell and then rose. The factory price of calcium carbide first dropped from 2577.50 yuan / ton on July 1 to 2402.5 yuan / ton on July 13, down 175.00 yuan / ton, down 6.79%; then it rose to 2740.00 yuan / ton on August 24, up 337.50 yuan / ton, up 14.05%. At last, the price of 2720 yuan / ton was maintained until the end of the quarter. Overall, calcium carbide market rose slightly in the third quarter, or 5.40%.

Statistics of China’s calcium carbide export in the third quarter of 2020

Monthly export quantity (ton) export amount (USD)

July 11980.525 5945080

August 15244.5 7448909

September 10459.2 5255610

Total: 37684.225 18649599

【5】 Northwest calcium carbide prices rose 43.19% in the fourth quarter

Calcium carbide market continued to rise sharply in the fourth quarter. At the end of December, the price of calcium carbide rose slightly to 14683.67 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14683.00 yuan / ton at the end of December. On the whole, the calcium carbide market rose sharply in the fourth quarter, or 43.19%, with a slight decline at the end of the quarter.

Statistics of China’s calcium carbide export in the fourth quarter of 2020

Monthly export quantity (ton) export amount (USD)

Oct. ~ 8963.05 ~ 4490920

Nov.? 8814? 4495861

Total 17777.05 8986781

【6】 Up 28.64% in a single month

In November 2020, the ex factory quotation of calcium carbide increased from 2863.33 yuan / ton on November 1 to 3683.33 yuan / ton on November 30, with an increase of 820.00 yuan / ton, the biggest monthly increase in 2020, with an increase of 28.64%.

【7】 12.09% in a single month

In April 2020, the ex factory quotation of calcium carbide decreased from 2646.67 yuan / ton on April 1 to 2326.67 yuan / ton on April 30, with a decrease of 320.00 yuan / ton, the largest monthly decrease of 12.09%.

【8】 The highest price difference of calcium carbide in 2020 is 1850.00 yuan / ton

On April 2, 2020, the average ex factory price of calcium carbide is 2333.33 yuan / ton, which is the lowest price of calcium carbide this year. On December 16, 2020, the average ex factory price of calcium carbide is 4183.33 yuan / ton, which is the highest price of calcium carbide this year. Compared with the lowest price, the price difference of calcium carbide is 1850.00 yuan / ton.

441 silicon price trend

On December 29, the price of silicon metal (441) was stable. According to the data of business news agency, on December 29, the average market price of domestic metallic silicon (441) was 13891.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.24% compared with the average market price of 13925 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (12.1), a rise of 32.41% compared with the average market price of 10491.67 yuan / ton at the valley (7.1), and a rise of 17.39% compared with the average market price of 11833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (1.1).

The price of 441 ᦇ silicon in different regions on the 29th is as follows:

The price range of silicon metal is 13200-13400 yuan / ton in Fujian, 13600-13700 yuan / ton in Sichuan, 13600-132700 yuan / ton in Kunming, 14600-14800 yuan / ton in Shanghai, 14000-14200 yuan / ton in Tianjin and 13900-14000 yuan / ton in Huangpu

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price of acetic anhydride will rise sharply in 2020, and the market of acetic anhydride will keep rising. As of December 28, the average quoted price of acetic anhydride was 7500.00 yuan / ton, up 3000 yuan / ton or 66.67% from 4500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1). The acetic anhydride market in 2020 is divided into three stages: the first stage: from January to may, the acetic anhydride price rises steadily with the support of demand; from June to October, the acetic anhydride market fluctuates and maintains stability; from November to December, the acetic anhydride price rises sharply with the support of raw materials.

Acetic anhydride rising stage supported by demand

It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic anhydride from January to May that the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and rose from January to May. The demand for acetic anhydride was less affected by the epidemic period, and the demand for acetic anhydride was relatively high because acetic anhydride was mostly used as raw materials for drug production. The price of acetic anhydride rose slightly from January to April. With the increase of equipment maintenance of acetic anhydride manufacturers in May, the price of acetic anhydride rose at the first peak. As of May 31, the price of acetic anhydride rose by 39.44% compared with the beginning of the year.

Shock adjustment stage

It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic anhydride from June to October that the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and adjusted from June to October. From June to October, acetic anhydride enterprises had equipment shutdown for many times, and the price of raw materials of acetic anhydride fluctuated and adjusted. The cost of acetic anhydride changed greatly, and acetic anhydride rose and fell sharply at this stage. However, the overall supply and demand of acetic anhydride is relatively stable, the parking time of equipment is short, and there are more inventory sales.

Raw materials support soaring stage

It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic anhydride from November to December that the price of acetic anhydride rose sharply from November to December. This is the second surge in 2020, which is different from the surge caused by demand from January to May. The surge from November to December is mainly caused by the surge of raw material prices. From November to December, the prices of acetic acid and methanol rose sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the price of acetic anhydride rose with each other.

Acetic acid price trend

It can be seen from the acetic acid price trend chart that in the first three quarters of 2020, the acetic acid market fluctuated and stabilized; in the fourth quarter, the acetic acid price rose straight. Affected by the epidemic, the export of acetic acid declined seriously in the first three quarters, the domestic demand was relatively weak, and the price of acetic acid was relatively at a historical low; in the fourth quarter, with the expected improvement of demand and the high support of downstream construction, the establishment of RECP Free Trade Zone promoted the export, and the future demand was expected to rise.

Methanol price trend

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart that the methanol price rose sharply from November to December, the raw material price of acetic anhydride rose, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rise increased.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an acetic anhydride data analyst of business news agency, believes that the rising market of acetic anhydride in 2020 is closely related to the particularity of acetic anhydride products and the relatively stable demand of downstream customers. The downstream customers of acetic anhydride are mostly used for pharmaceutical and cellulose acetate products. The demand for these products is relatively stable. The change of acetic anhydride price mainly depends on the operating rate of acetic anhydride enterprises and the price of raw materials. During the epidemic period, the demand for acetic anhydride increased slightly compared with previous years, which led to the rise of acetic anhydride price, and then the shutdown and maintenance of acetic anhydride enterprises led to the sharp rise of acetic anhydride price; after that, the fluctuation adjustment of acetic anhydride price was also caused by the start-up of equipment and the change of raw material price of acetic anhydride enterprises; from November to December, the price of acetic acid and methanol rose sharply, the raw material price of acetic anhydride rose sharply, and the cost of acetic anhydride rose, which led to the rise of acetic anhydride price The price is soaring again.

In the future, acetic acid and methanol prices were relatively stable and had a slight decline at the end of December, raw material cost of acetic anhydride decreased, support for acetic anhydride rise was insufficient, start-up of acetic anhydride enterprises was stable, demand was stable, power of acetic anhydride rise was limited in the short term, and acetic anhydride price fluctuated and fell in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda was weak. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average price of Shandong market was 485 yuan / ton, down 23.32% in the same period of last year. On December 24, the commodity index of light soda ash was 69.74, flat with yesterday, down 40.83% from the highest point of 117.86 (2017-11-21) in the cycle, and up 10.44% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

In December, the downstream purchase demand of caustic soda is general, and there is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak, with 32% of the mainstream ex factory price of caustic soda at 400-530 yuan / ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia is temporarily stable, with 32% of the mainstream ex factory price of caustic soda at 1500-1600 yuan / ton (100%). The downstream purchase demand is general, which has a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak.

Demand: downstream. The downstream industry is in the off-season of production, and the demand side lacks support. The good news is scarce, and the support for caustic soda market is still poor. It is expected that caustic soda will still maintain low-level operation in the short term. According to the Statistics Bureau, the national caustic soda production increased by 16.4% year on year in November. Under the good profit support of chlor alkali enterprises, the overall operation of caustic soda continued to be high.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 50th week of 2020 (12.14-12.18), the price of chlor alkali industry increased by 1 commodity, decreased by 3 commodities, and decreased by 0 commodity. The main commodities rising were calcium carbide (5.91%); the main commodities falling were light soda (- 3.18%), hydrochloric acid (- 0.81%) and PVC (- 0.44%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.3%.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the factory price of caustic soda is stable as a whole, the cost side changes little, and the operation is mainly stable and small. The downstream purchase demand is general, and there is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the subsequent or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak, depending on the downstream market demand.