The discovery of the new coronavirus variant in the UK has triggered a heated discussion in the market and affected the commodity market as well. Yesterday, the rubber was seriously impacted. Japan’s big board exchange said that the May rubber contract closed down 6.8% to 231.2 yen / kg, the biggest one-day drop since early November. Domestically, the main contract of Shanghai Rubber fell 7.11% to 13905 yuan / ton. Concerns about the new coronavirus mutation have led investors into a safe haven mode and have sold their positions to take profits. In addition, the demand of rubber market was also affected by the red warning level 1 emergency response of heavy pollution in Shandong and other places.

“In fact, environmental restriction mainly affects the operating rate of tire factories. As of December 17, the operating rate of semi steel tire was 60.45%, and that of all steel tire was 61.79%, which was at the low point since June this year, 10% and 12% lower than that of the same period in 2019, and the overall operating rate was at a low level in five years. From this point of view, the impact of environmental protection and production restriction is relatively large. ” But the impact is more short-term, phased and even seasonal, Zhu said. From the perspective of demand, winter itself is the off-season of tire demand, and the operating rate will decline. In addition, the shortage of export containers affects export orders, and also has a drag on short-term demand.

For the future market, Zhu ziyue said that we can analyze the market situation of Jiaozhou from two time dimensions. “Before the Spring Festival, China is in the stop cutting period, the further accumulation range of Ru warehouse receipts is limited, the precipitation in overseas production areas is relatively rich, but not more than the level of 2016, and has decreased recently. It is expected that the supply will increase, and the terminal demand will gradually weaken, showing strong supply and weak demand as a whole. After the Spring Festival, the domestic cutting period or face weather, pests and other factors disturbance, downstream construction demand recovery, is expected to be weak supply and strong demand. In addition, we should pay attention to the effect and progress of the vaccine injection, as well as the virus mutation. The price driving force in 2020 mainly comes from the epidemic situation, and the market driving force in 2021 will also come from the epidemic situation. But in addition to the epidemic itself, we should also pay attention to the disturbance of fundamental factors. ” She said.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, aniline prices run this week. On December 13, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7600-7700 yuan / ton; in Nanjing, it was 7900-8000 yuan / ton; on December 20, the price in Shandong was 7600-7700 yuan / ton; in Nanjing, the price was 7900-8000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 18.07% higher than last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, the price of pure benzene fell this week due to inventory pressure and the weakness of styrene. However, the overall positive news of benzene and styrene in the lower end of the week weakened. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene remained stable at 4600 yuan / ton, which was higher than the local refining price. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port decreased by about 11000 tons compared with last week. This Sunday (December 20), the price of pure benzene was 4170-4600 yuan / ton (average price was 4486 yuan / ton), down 70 yuan / ton or 1.54% from last week.

The price of nitric acid this week was higher than that of last week. On Friday (December 18), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2066.67 yuan / ton, which was 166.67 yuan / ton higher than that of last Friday, or 8.77%. Compared with the beginning of the month, it increased by 266.67 yuan / ton, or 14.82%. 29.17% higher than the same period last year

Affected by environmental protection inspection last week, Jinling and Huatai aniline plants in Shandong Province were put into operation with reduced load. New market supply decreased and prices rose. Aniline prices in East China followed. This week, aniline market supply is stable, downstream purchase is stable, stable price operation.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, we should pay attention to the change of demand side of plant restart, and styrene should pay attention to the arrival of imported ships in the later stage. In December, new production capacity is expected to enter the downstream, and the demand for pure benzene may increase. The listed price of Sinopec is higher than that of local refining, and the market is waiting for its price guidance. Next week, near the end of the month, focus on the next month’s contract price negotiations. It is expected that benzene will recover slightly next week.

At the end of December, we should pay attention to the future trend of raw material pure benzene; in terms of supply, we should pay attention to the operation load and maintenance plan of the plant; on the demand side, we should pay attention to the purchase of downstream additives and MDI. Aniline prices are expected to be strong next week.

1、 Price trend

The factory price of octanol in Shandong Province rose this week. This week, the average price of mainstream factory quotation of octanol in Shandong increased from 10200.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 11333.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 11.11%, 62.29% compared with the same period last year. Overall, octanol market rose this week, with the octanol commodity index of 83.33 on December 18.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the main octanol manufacturer’s factory quotation in Shandong Province rose this week: Jianlan Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 11000 yuan / ton of octanol at the end of this week, 1000 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s offer of octanol was 11000 yuan / ton at the end of this week, 1000 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng’s offer of octanol this weekend was 12000 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week It increased by 1400 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of octanol fell this week, with the quotation falling from 7979.18 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7965.55 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.17%, and an increase of 18.58% over the same period of last year. The high price consolidation of upstream raw material market, affected by supply and demand, has a positive impact on octanol price.

Octanol downstream market, DOP factory price rose this week. The DOP quotation rose from 9733.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10533.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 8.22% and a year-on-year increase of 42.34% over the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices rose, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for octanol procurement increased, octanol demand was good, and the future market operators were more likely to wait for DOP trend.

3、 Future forecast

In late December, the market trend of octanol in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. Upstream propylene market high consolidation, strong raw material support, downstream DOP market rose sharply, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is good, octanol supply is normal. In addition, the n-butanol plant in Ludwigshafen, Germany, was forced to shut down, indirectly pulling octanol. Octanol analysts believe that: in late December, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the octanol market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

This week, epichlorohydrin market narrow finishing operation. As of December 18, the average quoted price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 11933.33 yuan / ton, which was 1.65% lower than the beginning of the week and 3.24% lower than that of November 18, according to the data of the bulk list of business associations.

At present, some enterprises stop for maintenance, the spot supply in the market is reduced, and the low intention of the cargo holders is not strong. However, the downstream small orders need to be followed up, the operation is cautious, and the market trading atmosphere is light. At present, the mainstream price of epichlorohydrin Market in Shandong is around 11900-12000 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of epichlorohydrin of some enterprises is summarized (for reference only, the spot price of merchants is subject to the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.)

Enterprise market price specification date

Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. 12000 yuan / T premium product; 99.9% Min: 2020-12-17

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. 12300 yuan / T national standard 99.9 2020-12-16

Shandong rongnuo Chemical Sales Co., Ltd. 11700 yuan / ton, excellent products; 99.9% Min: 2020-12-16

Aite (Shandong) new materials Co., Ltd. 12000 yuan / T premium products; 99.9% Min: 2020-12-16

Jinan plawa Chemical Co., Ltd. 12000 yuan / T premium products; 99.9% Min: 2020-12-15

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 11800 yuan / T premium product; 99.9% Min: 2020-12-14

Jinan Mingyu Chemical Co., Ltd. 11800 yuan / T national standard 99.9 2020-12-14

Upstream propylene, on December 17, the market price of propylene in Shandong was down. According to the price chart of business agency, the price of propylene rose continuously in late November, increasing by more than 12%. From the end of the month to the beginning of the month, the price was stable again. On the 4th, the price rose by about 450 yuan / ton from the 3rd to the 8th, up by 5.90%. On the 9th, the price was fully stable. On the 10th, some enterprises made up for the increase, and some of them fell slightly. On the 11th, the price began to decline twice, and the decline continued on the weekend. On the 14th, the price dropped 200-250 yuan / T. on the 15th, the price was mainly stable, and most of them remained stable in the later period Some enterprises have declined slightly, and some of them have dropped slightly today. The transaction volume in the market is between 7880 and 8150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is still around 7900 yuan / ton. Now the factory inventory pressure slightly increased, the shipment situation is ordinary.

On December 18, the epoxy resin Market in Shandong was weak. At present, the cost pressure slowed down. However, the low-cost shipping intention of the shippers was not high. The downstream companies were not confident in the future market. The operation was cautious and the inquiry was limited. At present, the mainstream reference price in the market was around 21200-21500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Epichlorohydrin analysts of the business club believe that at present, there is no inventory pressure on the spot of manufacturers, and the willingness to support the market is still strong. However, downstream procurement is cautious, and small orders and rigid demand are the main factors. In the short term, the demand will restrict the market confidence. It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market may be dominated by the game, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of December 17, the price quoted by pet water bottle manufacturers was 5533.33 yuan / ton, which was 9.93% higher than that at the beginning of December, Compared with the same period last month, the price of polyester bottle chip increased by 12.54%. The polyester bottle chip market has been operated in a narrow range, and the price has risen steadily. The price range of mainstream manufacturers is around 5400-5550 yuan / ton. The prices of some manufacturers have been raised, and the overall market price of polyester bottle chips has risen slightly. The purchasing atmosphere is general. The downstream just needs to purchase carefully and wait-and-see, and the transaction atmosphere is flat.

Domestic PET bottle chip market price is stable, the overall market is running in a weak position. The focus of negotiation is stable, the downstream demand is flat, and the purchase is mainly on just need. At present, the inventory is high, the goods are slow, and sporadic orders are carried out. The mainstream factories are actively shipping, the logistics is smooth, the number of new orders is limited, mainly contract customers, and the operating rate is normal. At present, the polyester bottle chips in East China are running at a low level, and the market is the mainstream business The price is 5400-5550 yuan / ton. At present, the shipment is smooth and the inventory is general.

This week, the upstream PTA market is stable and rising, PTA market demand is general, the focus of the negotiation is stable, the inventory pressure remains, and the mentality of transaction is cautious.

The index was down 30.03% from the day of 2012, which was the highest point in 2012. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Pet analyst of business agency thinks: the pet market is weak and stable in the short term. (the above prices are provided by major pet manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by pet business analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, as of December 16, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was 11800 yuan / ton, which was 133 yuan / ton, or 1.14%, compared with December 7 (average price of 11666 yuan / ton); compared with December 1 (average price of 11333 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 466 yuan / ton, or 4.12%.

Strong raw material support, high-level and stable operation of n-propanol

Since December, the overall trend of the domestic n-propanol market has been optimistic. In the half month since the beginning of the month, the quoted price of n-propanol factory has risen steadily, with an increase range of 200-400 yuan / ton. At present, the external market trend of raw material ethylene continues to rise, which gives more strong support to the cost of n-propanol. In addition, the low inventory of n-propanol plant and the dual support of raw materials and supply side, the recent offer of n-propanol plant has continued to run at a high level. At present, as of December 16, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream areas was 11800 yuan / ton, which was 133 yuan / ton or 1.14% higher than December 7 (average price of 11666 yuan / ton); compared with December 1 (average price of 11333 yuan / ton), average price of domestic n-propanol increased by 466 yuan / ton, or 4.12%. Shandong Province: the ex factory price of n-propanol bulk water is 10700-10900 yuan / ton, including the package factory price is 11700-11900 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-propanol package of Aite (Shandong) new materials Co., Ltd. is 11800 yuan / T. Nanjing: the ex factory price of n-propanol (bulk water) is around 10500-10600 yuan tons. Domestic Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. (Nanjing Wujiang Chemical Co., Ltd.), n-propanol production unit started normal, normal shipment, n-propanol bulk water ex factory quotation of 10500 yuan / T, the price is temporarily stable.

In terms of raw materials, the external price of ethylene has risen recently. On December 10, the price was $934.75/t, and the average price of ethylene on December 15 was 965.25/t, up 27.51%. The current price is up 31.49% month on month, and the current price is 25.56% higher than last year. In the near future, the overall market of ethylene in the external market shows an upward trend. Asian ethylene market prices rose slightly. As of the 14th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $975-985 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at $905-915 / T. The price of ethylene market in Europe increased greatly. As of the 14th, FD northwest Europe closed at 976-991 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 987-999 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States rose. As of the 14th, the price was 683-694 US dollars / ton. Recently, the ethylene market in Europe and the United States showed a rising trend. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene market improved, the market trading atmosphere was warm, and the market continued to rise.

In terms of crude oil, on December 15, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $47.62/barrel, up $0.63. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $50.76/barrel, up $0.47. Oil prices continued to push up on Tuesday, with the market still affected by the positive effects of vaccination, and the European blockade measures and the expected slowdown in fuel demand recovery limited the rise in oil prices.

Raw material supply double support short-term n-propanol continued to run strong

As 2020 is coming to an end, the chemical market as a whole will gradually usher in a surge of stock, and the domestic n-propanol market demand may also increase accordingly. Therefore, the n-propanol datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will continue to run strongly, and there is no lack of the market gathering high again with the increasing demand.

Last week, the domestic liquid ammonia Market showed mild performance, with Hebei and Shandong regions rising in varying degrees from the beginning of the week to the middle of the week. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the rise in Shandong was 0.52%, and the mainstream market quotation was 3000-3200 yuan / ton.

The price of liquid ammonia in Shandong has risen slightly. The supply of large factories is stable, the unit is running normally, and the inventory pressure is lower than that at the end of last month. Due to the weak performance of domestic urea, the relatively considerable price difference shows that liquid ammonia is stronger than urea, especially due to the limited production in some domestic regions, and the operating rate is reduced, which brings certain support to the supply To form a stable support. In terms of the downstream, the demand for agricultural fertilizer in the current off-season is slightly insufficient, which is also the main reason why the price of liquid ammonia has not been greatly pushed up.

In other regions, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong has been adjusted by Shandong large factory this week, and the outflow of ammonia from Shandong is not as large as expected, so the impact on Hebei region is not obvious, so the price of manufacturers in Hebei has also increased slightly. The increases were all around 50 yuan / ton. At present, the Cangzhou unit of a plant in Hebei still produces a small amount of liquid ammonia, so the pressure is not big. This is also an important factor to balance the supply and demand of the region. The liquid ammonia quantity in the region basically maintains a balance between supply and demand, and the current price is between 3050-3200 yuan / ton. In other regions, such as northeast China, due to the continuous maintenance of large factories in this region, the supply of goods is in short supply, and the price of liquid ammonia has increased significantly. The price of liquid ammonia has already exceeded 3200 yuan / ton.

In the future, the business agency believes that the liquid ammonia market may continue to push up this week. On the one hand, prices in Shandong and Hebei have remained firm for some time, and the supply pressure is not big. On the other hand, some orders from Northeast China may be accepted in the future, and the ammonia quantity in the region may decline, which may lead to an upward price.

1、 Price trend

The comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. The average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation this week is 2160 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market temporarily stable, December 11 potassium chloride commodity index was 68.57.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride is temporarily stable: the ex factory offer of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 2020 yuan / T, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Anhui Badou potassium chloride distribution at weekend is 2300 yuan / T, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. Overall, the main contradiction in the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is mainly on demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of December, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly. The market of potassium chloride is facing the pressure of three mountains, namely, the large stock in Hong Kong, the weak demand and the downward trend of international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. Potassium chloride analysts of the business club believe that the short-term potassium chloride market is mainly composed of high-level consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of December 11, the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 10666 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on December 6, the average price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was reduced by 600 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 5.33%; compared with December 1, the average price was reduced by 2000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 15.57% within ten days.

Lack of raw material support, propylene glycol began to decline at the beginning of the month

From the beginning of December 2, the latest offer price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol fell sharply, mainly due to the lack of cost support from raw materials. Since the end of November, propylene oxide, the raw material, has been in a continuous decline. With the continuous weakening of cost support, propylene glycol factories have successively reduced the ex factory price of propylene glycol by 1000-2000 yuan / ton. In this week, the market trend of propylene oxide was stable, and the support for propylene glycol was improved compared with the previous period. However, in terms of demand, the downstream wait-and-see mood was heavy, the trading atmosphere was cold, and the operators were cautious in taking and replenishing goods. The price of propylene glycol Market rose and fell in a mixed manner, and the overall decline was more. As of December 11, the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 10666 yuan / ton, compared with December 6 Compared with the daily price, the average price was reduced by 600 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 5.33%; compared with December 1, the average price was reduced by 2000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 15.57% within ten days.

On the upstream side, on the first day of the month, the domestic propylene oxide market was stable after a sharp decline, and the current market was stable. As of December 10, the reference price of propylene oxide was 17300.00 yuan / ton, up 0.7% compared with December 1 (17166.67 yuan / ton).

After the lack of demand, the market does not rule out a small decline

Since December, the downstream demand of industrial grade propylene glycol in China has been flat, with few new orders. At present, the inventory is expected to rise. Therefore, business agency propylene glycol data analysts believe that in the short term, propylene glycol market will continue to explore slightly.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business associations, affected by the expected decline in supply, the domestic bromine market has been strong and upward. As of December 10, the average price in Shandong was about 33000 yuan / ton, up 1.37% compared with the beginning of the month and 6.64% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Affected by the cold weather, the bromine production enterprises in North China began to reduce the burden, and the spot supply of bromine declined. Weifang, the main production area, is about to enter the shutdown period. The manufacturers’ shipping intention is flat. In addition, the overall inventory of the industry is low, and the enterprises have a good attitude to stand up for price. The downstream market does not have a high acceptance intention of bromine high price. The supply and demand game is playing. At present, the mainstream bromine enterprises offer about 33000-33500 yuan / ton 。

On the upstream side, the domestic sulfur market has been stable for a while, and the sulfur market has been running steadily. There is no low-cost shipping intention for the holders. At present, the downstream demand is stable and the shipment is smooth, and the procurement is mainly based on demand. The future market pays attention to the follow-up of the downstream, which is about 1010 yuan / ton. In terms of sulfuric acid, the price of raw materials has been running at a high level recently, and the cost support is good. In addition, some sulfuric acid manufacturers do not have enough operation, The load is reduced and the supply of sulfuric acid is tight, at present, it is about 437 yuan / ton; the price of caustic soda is temporarily stable, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 400-530 yuan / T, the downstream purchasing demand is general, there is a certain conflict with the current caustic soda price, and it is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The main downstream flame retardant market of bromine started production generally, but there was insufficient demand for bromine purchasing, the overall intention of receiving goods was flat, and the high price of bromine was obviously contradicted; the start-up of pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediates and other industries was flat, and the demand side generally supported the bromine price.

3、 Future forecast

The bromine industry analysts of the business society believe that, with the reduction of supply expectation, the domestic bromine market will continue to be strong. Most of the production enterprises prepare for storage during the long shutdown period. The shipping intention is flat and the sentiment is warm. However, the downstream market generally receives goods, and sporadic bulk orders are mainly traded. The supply and demand game is playing. It is expected that the bromine market will still be strong in a short period of time.