According to the data of bulk commodity list of business agency, the market of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has been stable recently. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province is 1167.67 yuan / ton. The current price is up 1.45% month on month, and the current price is 7.03% higher than last year.

Recently, the domestic formaldehyde market price fluctuated and consolidated. As of December 9, the mainstream factory quotation in Central China was about 1143 yuan / ton, that of North China was 930 yuan / ton, and that of East China was 1188 yuan / ton. Shandong Linyi Hongfa formaldehyde production capacity of 70000 tons / year formaldehyde plant shutdown. Recently, some formaldehyde factories in Shandong have been shut down for maintenance under the influence of environmental control. On the whole, the stock of goods on the spot is in a low level, and the transaction of real orders is acceptable, and the market of formaldehyde fluctuates and consolidates.

The situation of upstream methanol: the market price of methanol in southern Shandong Province dropped by 10 yuan / ton to 2020-2040 yuan / ton, while Linyi received local goods at 2040 yuan / ton and delivered them without tax, while logistics goods were around 1990-2000 yuan / ton. The transaction volume of methanol market in central Shandong was stable to 2150 yuan / ton, and the external goods negotiation was delivered to spot exchange at 2030-2050 yuan / T, slightly up. The reference price of Shandong methanol in Lubei market is 2060 yuan / ton, which will be delivered to spot exchange. Methanol market up and down, limited support for formaldehyde.

Recently, due to the impact of environmental control, the traditional downstream wood board enterprises started to tighten up, and the demand for formaldehyde was weakened, thus maintaining the rigid demand procurement. Formaldehyde market shock consolidation.

Recently, the upstream raw material methanol market has been stable and small movements. Some downstream factories have stopped production due to the impact of a new round of domestic environmental control and control, and the formaldehyde factory is under great pressure to ship. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts of chemical branch of business agency predict that the formaldehyde price in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the near future.

1、 Price trend of formic acid

(Figure: P value curve of formic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has shown an upward trend. As of December 8, the average price quoted by formic acid enterprises was 2233.33 yuan / ton, up 1.51% compared with the beginning of the month, and increased by 15.79% on a three-month cycle. At present, the quotations of production enterprises are rising steadily. The purchasing in the downstream market is mainly required. The market trading atmosphere is fair. The dealers are operating in the market, and the prices of some enterprises are raised.

According to the business agency data monitoring: some enterprises formic acid prices summary. The ex factory quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Zibo pulisi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2300 yuan / ton, that of Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2200 yuan / ton, that of Jintan local industrial supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. is 2600 yuan / ton, and that of Henan bafosi chemical products Co., Ltd. (Shandong Luxi) is 3000 yuan / ton The quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid is 4400 yuan / ton, and that of domestic 94% industrial grade formic acid is 6400 yuan / ton. The quotation is for reference only. The spot price of merchants is subject to the market. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

For the upstream caustic soda, on December 7, the price of caustic soda in Shandong was temporarily stable, and the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda was 400-530 yuan / ton. The downstream purchasing demand was general, and there was a certain conflict with the current caustic soda price. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda sorting would be weak. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price quoted by enterprises as of December 7 was 3200 yuan / ton, up 1.05% compared with the beginning of the month; The upstream sulfuric acid market was temporarily stable on December 7 in Shandong, up 4.17% compared with the price at the beginning of the month. The upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently with good cost support, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, the supply of sulfuric acid is normal, and the factory price of sulfuric acid in the future market fluctuates slightly. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of December 7, the average price quoted by enterprises was 2107.50 yuan / ton, It was up 0.6% from the beginning of the month.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, on December 7, 2020, there were 23 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall on December 7, 2020, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities of increase were acetic acid (5.96%), butanone (3.83%) and pure benzene (3.66%). There were 10 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, with epichlorohydrin (- 3.14%), polymerized MDI (- 3.03%) and chloroform (- 2.63%). The average rise and fall was 0.31%.

3、 Future forecast

Formic acid analysts of the business community believe that in the near future, the raw material prices are stable and relatively strong, the cost support is strengthened, and the market trading atmosphere is fair. It is expected that in the short term, the formic acid market will be mainly stable and strong, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG on December 7 was 5043.33 yuan / ton, up 17.29% compared with the previous trading day, 23.81% higher than that of 5043.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 36.43% month on month, and 10.28% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Recently, the rise of domestic LNG has returned, and the price has been rising continuously, with a one-day increase of 17% on the 7th. Since December, the increase has exceeded 23% in just a few days, higher than the same period last year. At present, the prices of Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Shanxi and other places have broken through the 5000 yuan mark, and the market prices have risen in a straight line, and the import gas has also been actively pushed up, so the market sentiment has been boosted. The continuous rise of liquid price in this round is mainly due to the cold weather and the substantial increase of urban fuel demand. In addition, there are still production stoppages and gas restrictions in some areas. The regional supply is tight and there is no obvious improvement. The manufacturers support the prices and the liquid prices continue to rise. At present, there are a lot of rainy and snowy weather, traffic is not smooth, some liquid factories are under pressure to ship, the price is slightly back, and the downstream is also tired. However, the demand side and supply side support strongly. In the short term, the LNG market is strong, and there are still upward expectations, but the increase may be narrowed.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of December 7, the price has risen sharply compared with the beginning of the month. The average price in Inner Mongolia is around 5100 yuan / ton, which is about 1100 yuan / ton. The average price in Shanxi is around 5550 yuan / ton, which is about 980 yuan / ton. The average price in Xinjiang is around 4000 yuan / ton, which is about 360 yuan / ton The average price of the region was around 5100 yuan / ton, up about 1070 yuan / ton, while the average price in Sichuan was around 4800 yuan / ton, up about 550 yuan / ton. The liquid prices in various regions rose sharply and the trading center shifted upward.

Regional specification quotation (yuan / ton) date

Inner Mongolia LNG 4700-5500, December 7

Shaanxi LNG 5100-5180 December 7

Xinjiang LNG 3500-4550 December 7

Ningxia LNG 4950-5180 December 7

Shanxi LNG 5000-5850 December 7

Sichuan LNG 4780-5100 December 7

Downstream methanol, Shandong methanol market transaction price in 2000-2020 yuan / ton, delivered to spot exchange, transaction focus on high-end, low price reluctant to sell. The market price of methanol in southern Shandong Province rose by 20 yuan / ton to 2030-2050 yuan / ton in cash exchange. Linyi received local goods and delivered them around 2020-2030 yuan / T, excluding tax, while logistics goods were around 1980 yuan / T, with a small volume. The transaction volume of methanol market in central Shandong is stable to 2150 yuan / ton, and the external goods are negotiated to be delivered to spot exchange at 2000-2020 yuan / ton, and the market transaction center is high-end.

Urea, in the first ten days of December, the market situation of urea in Shandong is mainly fluctuated. According to urea analysts of the business club, the current agricultural demand has been followed up, and the downstream industry has a fair enthusiasm for urea procurement, and the industrial demand is purchased on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

Dichloromethane: at present, the overall market of dichloromethane in Shandong is not high, the inventory pressure of enterprises is not big, and the intention of enterprises to support prices is obvious, which drives the surrounding market to be strong and upward. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will be high and strong in a short time. Pay attention to the changes of liquid chlorine price of raw materials.

3、 Future forecast

LNG analysts from the business club believe that: the weather is cold, the demand for urban fuel has increased significantly, and there are still production stoppages and gas restrictions in some areas. The regional supply is tight, and there is no obvious improvement. The manufacturers are supporting the prices, and the liquid prices are constantly rising. In the short term, the LNG market is running strong, and there are still upward expectations, but the increase may be narrowed.

Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market remained firm at the beginning of December, with various models of products slightly adjusted. As of December 4, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding class sample enterprises was about 29400 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.34%.

In terms of adipic acid upstream of PA66, affected by the higher price of pure benzene last month, the domestic adipic acid market generally continued to rise. In December, the current upstream pure benzene still rose, supporting the cost of adipic acid. In terms of supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers has remained stable recently, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. Due to the increase of cost pressure at the beginning of the month, the manufacturer has certain shipping pressure. In the later stage, the current market fundamentals are OK, but the business community is worried about the weakening demand brought about by the decline of downstream operating rate in winter. Adipic acid market is expected to follow the upstream trend.

Adipic acid on the cost side of PA66 support is acceptable, PA66 market rose a lot last month, the beginning of December high hold firm. In terms of supply, Zhejiang Huafeng’s operating rate has increased recently, but the overall operating rate of domestic production lines is not high, and the factory has no pressure of accumulating stocks for the time being, and the mentality of supporting the market is still strong. The situation of spot shortage in domestic spot market has not improved. Moreover, the new products are still mainly supplied to the old customers under the contract, which aggravates the situation of tight supply in the field, and the situation that the merchants have no goods sometimes occurs. Following the price increase letters issued by BASF, DuPont and aoshengde, Toray of Japan also issued a price increase notice, which continued to improve the prices of PA66 spot and related raw materials in the industrial chain. The replenishment operation of downstream factories is biased towards rigid demand, and the high price of PA66 also increases the pressure of downstream cost, and the operation is mainly oscillatory at the beginning of the month

Business agency analysts believe: PA66 in early December domestic market trend temporarily stable. The price of upstream products is high, which can support the cost of PA66. Downstream goods just need to operate, high price goods have conflict. But the spot is in short supply, the terminal passively follows up, the current demand is OK. At the beginning of the month, new products were cautiously low, and it is expected that the market price of PA66 will continue its high and strong trend in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of December 03, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 7633 yuan / ton, which was 66 yuan / ton lower than that on November 30, down 1.72%; compared with the price on November 1, the average price of butanone increased by 1233 yuan / ton, or 19.27%.

Insufficient export support, weak butanone finishing operation at the beginning of the month

At the end of November, the domestic butanone market was slightly loose, and some of the actual orders were traded at a small margin. In December, the market trend of butanone market has not changed significantly, and the overall situation is weak and stable. The market quotation of butanone in some regions has been reduced by 100-300 yuan / ton. At present, the overall stock of domestic butanone market is not much, but the downstream demand is much colder than that in November, and the support of new orders is insufficient, mainly due to the reduction of export orders and the general trading atmosphere of the market. Shandong Province: the reference price of butanone is 7500-7700 yuan / ton, which is 200-300 yuan / ton lower than that at the end of November. Jiangsu Province: the reference ex factory price of butanone is 7400-7600 yuan / ton, which is 100-200 yuan / ton lower than that at the end of November. As of December 3, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 7633 yuan / ton, which was 66 yuan / ton lower than that on November 30, with a decrease of 1.72%; compared with the price on November 1, the average price of butanone increased by 1233 yuan / ton, or 19.27%.

On the upstream side, the market of liquefied civil gas (LPG) rose at the end of December after falling for five consecutive days from November 26 to 30. On December 1, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong market was 3166 yuan / ton, compared with the average price of 3110 yuan / ton on November 30, the price in one day increased by 56 yuan / ton, or 1.82% in a single day. At present, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong market on December 3 was 3200 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price of 3110 yuan / ton on November 30, the price increased by 90 yuan / ton, or 2.89% in three days.

Internationally, on December 2, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $45.28/barrel, up $0.73. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $48.25/barrel, up $0.83. Oil prices rose on Wednesday as the approval of a vaccine in the UK boosted hopes for a recovery in fuel demand, and the market generally expected OPEC + to continue at the scale specified in the current production reduction agreement.

Insufficient demand for butanone will continue to weaken

At present, there are not many stocks in the plant, export orders are weak, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the attitude of the operators is not good. The butanone data analyst of the business society believes that the butanone market may continue to weaken in the short term, and more attention should be paid to raw materials and demand changes in the future.

1、 Price trend

As of December 2, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 14333.33 yuan / ton, up 2.38% compared with the previous trading day, 3.61% higher on a month on month basis, and 11.34% lower than the same period last year, according to the monitoring of bulk data of the business agency.

As of December 2, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 16000 yuan / ton, up 5.49% from the previous trading day, 4.35% on a month on month basis, and 30.43% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

R22, since the beginning of November, R22 market continued to warm up, the price rose steadily, and the price trend continued to rise on the 2nd day. Many enterprises raised 500-1500 yuan / T, up about 3% in the past month. Some enterprises were short of goods and closed the offer. This round of R22 price continued to rise, mainly due to the raw material upward and quota support, especially raw material chloroform, increased by about 30% in the month, giving R22 a strong support. However, there is no hope of boosting the demand side, the domestic and foreign trade and the terminal market are not good, and it is difficult to make a significant change in the off-season. However, supported by the favorable cost and quota, the market returns to the seller’s market, so it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the future. As of the 2nd day, the prices of mainstream manufacturers in refrigerant R22 market are around 14000-16000 yuan / ton.

R134a: since November, the market of R134a has been relatively stable, and has been rising recently. On the 2nd day, the price of R134a has risen sharply. Many enterprises have raised 500-1500 yuan / ton, up about 5% in the past month. The rising price of R134 is mainly due to the rising prices of raw materials hydrofluoric acid and trichloroethylene. The strong cost support has boosted the price of R134a. The automotive refrigerant is in the stage of stock preparation, and the demand is improved, but there is not enough good expectation. At present, R134a is a concentrated export period. However, the international situation is still uncertain, and the export end has not improved significantly. In addition, the operating rate of manufacturers is improved, and the warehouse is discharged As of the 2nd day, the prices of the mainstream manufacturers in the R134a market were around 16000-16500 yuan / ton.

As for the raw material hydrofluoric acid, on December 2, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 8000-8500 yuan / T. the ex factory price of domestic manufacturers was temporarily stable. The domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers had a general operating rate, and the supply of goods on site was normal, which was affected by the stable price of fluorite. However, the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry was poor, and the on-site purchase was mainly on demand. It was expected that the on-site price would remain volatile in the future.

The price of chloroform and methane chloride Market in Shandong Province rose. The mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market was 3320-3420 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of chloroform market was about 3650 yuan / ton. At present, the spot supply of chloroform market in China declined slightly, which stimulated the demand of downstream and traders. The overall purchase increased. The inventory pressure of chloroform enterprises was not big, and it is expected that in a short period of time, the supply of chloroform in the domestic market declined slightly The price of methyl chloride is stable. Pay attention to the change of liquid chlorine price of raw materials.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business agency, the raw materials are rising at present, and there is no intention of callback. The cost support is strong, and the prices of various types of refrigerants are actively adjusted. It is expected that the prices of R22 and R134a are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, and the prices may continue to rise.

The crude benzene commodity index on November 29 was 45.20, unchanged with yesterday, 65.72% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), and 48.00% higher than the lowest point of 30.54 on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In November 2020, the crude benzene market will fluctuate upward. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene will be 2556.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2886.25 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 12.91%.

In November 2020, Sinopec’s pure benzene price increased five times and decreased once, with a cumulative increase of 600 yuan / ton. As of the 30th, all refineries under Sinopec had implemented the unified implementation of 4200 yuan / ton.

The crude benzene market was mainly driven by the prices of pure benzene and crude oil. On the whole, the market price of styrene rose first and then fell this month, which led to the main market price of pure benzene. At the end of the month, affected by the fall of styrene, the pure benzene market went down and then rose. In terms of the start-up of coking enterprises, the seventh round of increase of coke in this month ended and the eighth round of increase was opened at the end of the month. Although there was no response from downstream steel mills, the recent decrease in the start-up of coking enterprises has been an indisputable fact. Affected by the environmental protection of major production areas and the gradual implementation of de capacity, the start-up of coking enterprises this month has slightly decreased, and the subsequent new capacity can not be replenished in a short time In the future, the market supply will be slightly tight. With the support of high profits, the overall coking operating rate of the whole country is about 80%. Driven by the recent market recovery, some downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises have good demand for crude benzene.

In terms of downstream demand, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has been stable at about 65% in the near future, which is in an upward state as a whole. Some enterprises that shut down in the early stage started operation this month and have good demand for crude benzene.

In the future market, the business agency believes that the pure benzene and crude oil market are performing well, and the external price of pure benzene is still high, which has certain support for the market. Market participants generally look forward to the future market, and the future market focuses on the price trend of downstream products and the external market trend.

Commodity index: on November 30, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride was 94.05, up 0.38 point compared with yesterday, 13.72% lower than 109.01 point (2019-08-28), and 11.54% higher than the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the monitoring data, from September to November, the market of polyaluminum chloride showed an overall upward trend, with the total increase of 7.09% in the two months of the “golden nine silver decade” and more than 10% in March at the end of November. The lowest mainstream price of polyaluminum chloride, one of the main monitoring specifications, with a content of more than 28% was 1571.43 yuan / ton on September 1, and the highest price was about 1740 yuan / ton at the end of November, with an increase of more than 10%, It is the best three months since 2020. In the first two months, the prices of raw materials hydrochloric acid and calcium powder increased, and the prices of fuel and natural gas used in the production process rose sharply, leading to the price of polyaluminum chloride manufacturers transferred from the factory, with a total of about 200 yuan / ton in two months. In November, the price of raw materials rose and the manufacturers stopped production under the requirements of environmental protection policies in the heating season, resulting in gradual shortage of supply and comprehensive price rise About 300 yuan / ton.

Raw material cost: hydrochloric acid: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of North China is mainly stable, with some rising: the price of poly aluminum chloride in Dezhou Meihua was reported at 160 yuan / ton in early September, and 210 yuan / ton at the end of the month after several price adjustments in October, with an increase of about 50 yuan / ton, and a sharp increase of more than 4% in November, and an offer of 315 yuan / ton at the end of the month. As for Henan, one of the main production areas of water treatment enterprises, according to the local polyaluminum chloride manufacturers, the price of hydrochloric acid was about 180 yuan / ton in September, and the price of hydrochloric acid continued to rise in October. Not only was the price of hydrochloric acid high, but also they had to queue up to get the goods. According to the market rules, the downstream was also in September and October Month is the raw material for environmental protection water treatment in the heating season. Under the stimulation of cost and demand, most of the ex factory prices of polyaluminum chloride increased, and the price of hydrochloric acid continued to rise in November. Calcium powder: according to traders, the price increase of raw material calcium powder is mainly concentrated in September, with an increase of about 80 yuan / ton. Since October, the price of calcium powder is still stable at the price at the end of September, with little change.

9、 In October, the price of natural gas, the fuel used in the production of polyaluminum chloride, rose sharply, while in November, the price of natural gas rebounded rapidly after a shock drop. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the temperature has dropped sharply in recent days, the demand for urban fuel has increased, the supply in some areas is tight, the downstream replenishment sentiment has increased, the demand is getting better, the market trading atmosphere has improved, the manufacturers’ shipment situation has improved, and the confidence in bidding has been strengthened. In addition, the price of liquefied natural gas has been boosted by many advantages. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be stronger in the short term, and the price will continue Continued to rise. Among them, at the beginning of September, the mainstream quotation of liquefied natural gas was 2406.67 yuan / ton; at the end of October, it was about 3766.67 yuan / ton; at the end of November, it was 3923.33 yuan / ton, with an increase of more than 63% in March. Such a big increase will increase the pressure on polyaluminum enterprises, and the ex factory price of polyaluminium will inevitably rise.

Downstream demand: in September and October, the price of polyaluminum chloride increased significantly. In the heating season in November, environmental protection inspection is strictly required, and manufacturers stop production, resulting in tight supply of goods. This month surpassed October and became the best month in 2020.

Industry: from September to the end of the year, the water treatment industry as a whole is in a good time. The market rise is mainly subject to the rising pressure of the cost side, the coming of the heating season and the shutdown and downstream demand caused by the pressure of environmental protection. The market is generally optimistic about the market situation of the water treatment industry in the heating season. In fact, the market rose sharply this month, which is indeed the best time in 2020.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of business agency, on the basis of heating season, the continuous rise of raw material cost and the shortage of supply caused by shutdown have caused the price rise of polyaluminum chloride. As for the future market, we believe that the above factors will continue to support the future market, and polyaluminum chloride will still have sufficient upward momentum in December.

After the overhaul of Datong Qinhuangdao railway, the coal railway transfer in volume of northern port has significantly recovered and increased. However, affected by the factors such as higher downstream purchasing enthusiasm, better coal transfer out from port, and limited growth rate of coal supply in production area, coal inventory in northern port increased slowly, and coal price and coal transportation price increased steadily.

Last week, the main steam coal futures 2101 contract high fall, the main funds reduction and import coal news disturbance is the fuse of the decline. However, the fundamental pattern of low inventory and strong demand in the steam coal market is difficult to reverse in a short period of time. It is expected that the price of steam coal will still be dominated by strong operation this winter.

Slow growth of coal inventory

After the overhaul of Datong Qinhuangdao railway, the coal railway transfer in volume of northern port has significantly recovered and increased. However, affected by the factors such as higher downstream purchasing enthusiasm, better coal transfer out from port, and limited growth rate of coal supply in production area, coal inventory in northern port increased slowly, and coal price and coal transportation price increased steadily.

Recently, the national development and Reform Commission said that it would continue to promote domestic coal enterprises to increase production and supply, but at the same time, it always insisted on safety as the premise of ensuring supply. From the perspective of the utilization rate of coal production capacity in the main production areas, the production capacity has been at a high level within the year. No matter for the reasons of policy guidance or good production profits, coal enterprises have a high enthusiasm for increasing production. However, under the background of normalization of safety inspection, the space for further improvement of daily output of raw coal is relatively limited.

And the downstream coal demand gradually opened the peak season mode. As cold air activities become more frequent, the “cold winter” closely watched by the market is expected to materialize. This week, China’s central and eastern regions ushered in a wide range of rain and snow cooling weather, the lowest air temperature 0 ℃ line will be pushed southward to the central and southern part of the Huanghuai river. It is estimated that in the next 20 days, the temperature in most areas of China will be close to or lower than the annual average level in the same period.

Although the downstream power plants have replenished the coal inventory in advance to a level higher than that in the same period of previous years, the coal inventory of important transit ports is at a low level, and it is expected that it will not accumulate in peak season, so the market sentiment will still exist.

Limited increase in import coal

There have been many unconfirmed reports this week that the quantity limit on imported coal will be relaxed to stabilize domestic coal prices. However, some people in the industry said that Guangdong Province applied to increase the import quota of 28.61 million tons, but only 3 million tons were approved. Zhejiang Province confirmed the increase of 2 million tons, Jiangsu Province confirmed the increase of 3 million tons, and Jiangxi, Anhui and Guangxi each confirmed the increase of 1 million tons. Generally speaking, the total new quota is relatively limited, and most of them are to deal with the goods which have not been cleared through customs in the early stage. There is no sign of relaxation in Australia’s coal import.

From the international coal price point of view, since China has strictly controlled the quantity of imported coal, the operating center of NEWC steam coal spot price in Newcastle port, Australia, has continued to fall from about 100 USD / T to 50 USD / T. Recently, the international coal market demand is good, and the international steam coal price has rebounded. The price increase of Richards port in South Africa is the most prominent, followed by the ARA three port coal price index in Europe, and the worst performance is the coal price index of Newcastle port in Australia. After the fluctuation of the composite exchange rate, the cci5500 imported coal price index, which is priced in RMB, also shows no sign of significant rise in the near future, which is not in line with the scenario of China’s liberalization of coal import. Therefore, the horizontal control policy of imported coal is still the main theme and will not constitute supply pressure.

Reduction of main capital positions

On the technical side, last week, the main steam coal 2101 contract did not effectively break through the resistance of the early high point. After a short run, the long short funds both reduced their positions and left the market, which led to the reduction of the disk volume and the reduction of the positions to the 40 day moving average. This week, the 20 day moving average showed that the steam coal futures are still in the bull market, but the volume and position growth is not big, and the rising momentum is still in the stage of accumulation. As the coastal coal price has entered the red area, the relevant departments have launched the response mechanism to suppress the abnormal fluctuation of coal price, and stressed that the coal price does not have a substantial rise foundation this winter, so the price rise of steam coal will not be a steep unilateral market. Combined with fundamental support factors, it is recommended to buy in batches every callback.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic polyester filament market overall maintained a small decline trend this week, among which polyester FDY and polyester POY began to stop falling and rebound in the middle of the week.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market from November 20 to 27, unit: yuan / ton

Products up and down from November 20, 2020 to November 27, 2020

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5406.67-5381.67 – 0.46% – 25.32%

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5170.00-5128.33 – 0.81% – 27.2%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) 6984.44 6912.22 – 1.03% – 20.33%

At the beginning of the week, driven by the raw material market, the production and sales of polyester filament took off. On the 25th, the production and sales of polyester filament were more than 300%. The willingness of downstream textile enterprises to copy the bottom increased. Some downstream factories replenished goods. The purchasing strength was generally larger than that in the earlier stage. The market trading atmosphere was hot, and the factory inventory pressure was also relieved. However, with the decline of crude oil, the weaving heat has declined, and the production and sales have declined. At present, the average production and sales of mainstream factories are around 60%. The overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 23-36 days, of which POY inventory is 6-13 days, FDY inventory is around 16-34 days, and DTY inventory is about 24-36 days. In terms of price, at present, the mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have quoted polyester POY (150D / 48F) at 5050-5250 yuan / ton, polyester FDY (150D / 96F) at 5150-5450 yuan / ton, and polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) at 6800-7000 yuan / ton.

This week, crude oil continued to rise, cost support strengthened. As of November 25, the settlement price of WTI main contract of international crude oil was 45.71 USD / barrel, up 26.38% compared with the beginning of the month, while the settlement price of Brent main contract was 48.61 USD / barrel, up 26.84% compared with the beginning of the month. It has reached the highest level since March. On the one hand, the successive positive news of the new crown vaccine has boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is beneficial to the supply expectation. PTA spot market price also showed a wave of rebound, as of November 27, the average market price was 3343 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.42%, and a year-on-year decrease of 30.90%.

Recent domestic PTA unit: 10000 tons / year

Change of enterprise name capacity device

Yangzi Petrochemical 35 will start maintenance in the afternoon of November 3, 2020, and the restart time is to be determined

Yadong Petrochemical 70 will start maintenance in the early morning of November 13, 2020, and will restart in the evening of November 27

Chuanneng chemical 100 will be overhauled on November 17, 2020, and will be restarted in the evening of November 23.

Zhongtai Petrochemical 120 will start maintenance for 2 months on September 30, 2020

PTA plant was restarted one after another to supply pressurization. The 1 million ton PTA plant of Sichuan Energy Investment Co., Ltd. was restarted in the evening of November 23; the 700000 ton PTA plant of Shanghai Yadong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is planned to restart in the evening of November 27; the 1.2 million ton PTA plant of Sinopec is expected to restart by the end of this month, with the industry operating rate rising to more than 91%. Plant restart to accelerate the accumulation of inventory, surplus negative still inhibit PTA growth.

Near the end of November, the domestic textile terminal market continued to cool down, and the start-up rate of traditional low-season textile enterprises declined, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was reduced to below 86%. The polyester industry was ultimately high in production and sales, and lacked sustainability. According to China Textile City News, the current downstream fabric trade began to reduce orders, stop the situation. In the market, the curtain cloth and home decoration fabric with polyester filament as the main raw material are still insufficient compared with the previous best-selling seasons, and some small and medium-sized business operators’ counterpart merchants still place relatively limited orders. However, the order delivery batch sizes of various business outlets are mutual, but the overall market sales volume is still insufficient. It is expected that the transaction in the traditional market will shrink back, and the overall market transaction will show a small trend of shock.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the momentum of crude oil continued to rise is insufficient, PTA began to accelerate the accumulation of inventory at the end of November, and Fujian Baihong new production capacity is planned to be put into operation next month, resulting in increased supply pressure. In addition, the terminal textile into the traditional off-season, the new orders in the market are not good, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the price of polyester filament will be stable and weak in the short term.