According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market has been strong and upward recently. As of November 11, the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2843 yuan / ton, up 7.57% compared with the beginning of the month and 13.58% higher than the same period of last month. At present, there are 2700-2880 yuan / ton in Shandong, 2900-3000 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 3050-3150 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 2750-2820 yuan / ton in Henan, 2750-2800 yuan / ton in Hebei and 2400 yuan / ton in Northwest China.

Unit capacity (10000 t / a) unit output (T / D)

Yankuang Guotai 110.3000

Hualu Hengsheng 50.1500

Yangtze BP 50 1300

Jiangsu Sopu 120 3300

Celanese 1200 2500

Jiantao, Hebei Province

Tianjin Bohua 35.1000

Henan Shunda 40.1400

Henan Longyu 50.1500

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi Yanchang 30.1300

Shanghai Huayi 70.1600

Anhui Huayi 50.1300

Dalian Hengli 35.1300

At present, the domestic acetic acid market continues to rise, the price of acetic acid rises to the high level within the year, and the overall market starts smoothly. Enterprises in East China execute more export orders. In addition, the domestic demand in downstream market is good, and the inventory of enterprises is generally low. Some enterprises need to wait for three or four days to arrange orders, which supports the strong upward trend of acetic acid market.

In terms of upstream methanol market, due to weather factors, plant shutdown and maintenance in some regions led to a decline in market supply. In addition, the inventory of production enterprises is not high, the industry is mostly in good mood, and the profits of traders are fair. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will be in a strong operation in the short term, at present, it is about 2027 yuan / ton. On the downstream side, after the continuous rise of acetate Market, the purchase of terminal market is rational. At present, the market supply is sufficient, the cost support is good, and the trading atmosphere in the industry is flat, and it is expected to maintain stable operation in a short time.

Recently, the supply of acetic acid in the international market is tight, and the price of acetic acid in various regions is stable. At present, the acetic acid Market in Asia is about 360-420 US dollars / ton; the European market is about 570 euro / ton; the North American market is about 530 US dollars / ton.

The acetic acid analysts of the business society believe that the domestic acetic acid market has a strong growth trend, the export domestic demand is double supported, the enterprise inventory is low, and the price intention is high. In the situation of short supply in the market, it is expected that the acetic acid market will remain stable in a short period of time.

From November 2 to 6, 2020, the market price of crude benzol will rise. The ex factory price in North China will be 2556.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2646.25 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly increase of 3.52%.

Summary of Sinopec’s pure benzene price adjustment in November 2020 (unit: yuan / ton)

Price adjustment amount after date adjustment

November 4 3750 + 150

In November 2020, Sinopec’s pure benzene price will be increased by 150 yuan / ton, and 3750 yuan / ton will be implemented by all its refineries.

This week, the coking enterprises started well, the sixth round of increase in coke was basically implemented this week, with a cumulative increase of 300 yuan / ton. The current profits of coking enterprises are relatively high, coupled with the recent loose environmental protection policies, the operating rate of enterprises is high, and the supply of crude benzene is sufficient. This week, the price of pure benzene hydrogenated benzene was mainly driven by downstream styrene. Sinopec was listed on the 4th and increased by 150 yuan / ton, and now it is 3750 yuan / ton. Crude benzol Market was boosted and trading was positive. The bidding price of main production areas was raised this week, and the price of Shandong Province rose by about 120 yuan / ton.

In the future, the business agency believes that the current price rise of pure benzene is mainly driven by the rise of styrene and maleic anhydride in the downstream. This week, the price boost of styrene to pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene decreased. Affected by the rising cost of raw materials, the downstream profits decreased, and the supply and demand side of pure benzene was weak. There was a certain pressure on the upward trend. It is expected that the future market will be dominated by high consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, pure benzene fell at the beginning of the week and rose rapidly in the later period. On November 1, the listed price of pure benzene was 3350-3650 yuan / ton (with an average price of 3575 yuan / ton); on this Sunday (November 8), the listed price of pure benzene was 3590-3800 yuan / ton (with an average price of 3710 yuan / ton), which was 135 yuan / ton or 3.78% higher than last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

At the beginning of the week, the decline trend of last week continued, and pure benzene in Shandong continued to fall. On Wednesday, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increased by 150 yuan / ton to 3750 yuan / ton, with stronger support at the bottom. In addition, the downstream styrene continued to rise strongly, driving the price of pure benzene to rise rapidly.

In terms of external market, on Friday (November 6), the import of pure benzene from South Korea was 480 US dollars / ton, up 29.67 US dollars / ton, or 6.59% compared with October 30; pure benzene imported from East China was 487 US dollars / ton, up 28 US dollars / ton, or 6.1% compared with October 30.

In terms of crude oil, this week’s market focus turned to the US presidential election, and oil prices rebounded. Compared with October 30, Brent rose $2.095 per barrel, or 5.79%, while WTI rose $1.34 per barrel, or 3.71%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 42.63%, and WTI decreased by 38.31%.

Downstream: driven by terminal downstream demand and downstream high prices, styrene continued to rise sharply this week. On November 8, the price of styrene in Shandong was 7700 yuan / ton, up 650 yuan / ton or 9.22% over last week.

This week, aniline Market is stable and small. On November 8, the price of aniline in Shandong was 6500-6700 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 6700-6800 yuan / ton

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the surge of epidemic cases in Europe and the United States has dragged down the oil price and kept the oil price under pressure.

Styrene basically faces good, short-term market is still upward, but chasing up styrene sentiment weakened. In addition, the port inventory of pure benzene is high, and the fundamentals are weak. Next week, the price of pure benzene may be slightly reduced. Pay attention to the planned parking of the downstream in the near future, and the demand may decrease.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the market of potassium sulfate in Hebei is stable this week, and the output of Mannheim potassium sulfate is about 2550 yuan / ton for 50% powder and 2650 yuan / ton for 50% granules and 52% water soluble powder. According to monitoring, the price of Mannheim potassium sulfate has generally increased in recent years, with an increase of about 50 yuan, mainly reflected in the transaction of low-end products. At present, the operating rate of manufacturers remains high, and the overall supply of spot resources remains stable. At present, the winter storage market is gradually liberalized, and the purchase of raw materials will bring certain support to the potassium sulfate Market, and the manufacturers have no obvious supply pressure. The annual task of potash has already been completed, and a large number of Yunnan tobacco orders will be supplied in the later stage. At present, the supply pressure is great. However, the operating rate of Qinghai manufacturers has been abnormal. The shortage of water and salt supply and the rise of price have helped Mannheim potassium sulfate stabilize its fatigue to a certain extent.

The upstream price of potassium chloride maintained a high and stable situation. The high-end quotation of 62% powdered potassium in the port reached 2150 yuan / ton. The prices of 62% white crystal, 60% red powder and 60% Dahong granule have also been fully increased. The cost is rising continuously, and the market price of potassium sulfate has increased compared with the previous period. In terms of demand, the winter storage market will be gradually liberalized, and the procurement of raw materials will bring certain support to the potassium sulfate Market.

3、 Future forecast

The potassium sulfate analysts of the business society believe that: at present, the potassium sulfate Market is running stably, driven by the cost, the price has increased compared with the previous period, the overall demand of the downstream is weak, and the market fluctuation is not large in the short term.

According to the business agency data monitoring: on November 5, the price of lithium carbonate remained stable. On November 5, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 39500 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on November 1 was 39500 yuan / ton). On November 5, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44200 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the beginning of the week (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China on November 1 was 44200 yuan / ton). On May 5, the mainstream quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was around 35000-40000 yuan / ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate was around 40000-45000 yuan / ton.

According to the observation of market changes, the transaction atmosphere of lithium carbonate market this week is relatively flat, and the supply of lithium carbonate products in some regions is in a tight state, and the final transaction price is mainly based on interviews. Enterprises with lower transaction price in the early stage may gradually increase the price to 36000 yuan / ton. In addition, the upstream and downstream enterprises continue to heat up the price game, so the price of lithium carbonate will remain stable for the time being.

From the perspective of power market, the general office of the State Council recently issued a notice on the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035), some of which have been changed from the draft for comments issued in December 19, such as adjusting the penetration rate of new energy vehicles to 20%, and increasing the energy consumption per 100 km by 1 degree. This policy may have a positive impact on cobalt and lithium demand in the next five years and in the long run.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on November 4, 2020, there were 19 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall on November 4, 2020, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities of increase were silicone DMC (10.29%), maleic anhydride (3.54%) and phthalic anhydride (3.52%). There were 8 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products were DMF (- 17.96%), sodium pyrosulfite (- 3.67%) and TDI (- 2.06%).

Lithium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that the current market price of lithium carbonate is relatively stable, enterprises with low price gradually increase the price, and enterprises with high price stabilize the price and actively ship. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will be stable in the short term.

Trade name: br 9000

Latest price (November 4): 10780.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of BR 9000 in China was 10780.00 yuan / ton on the 4th, down 1.91% from the previous day. As of November 3, the price of butadiene was 9200 yuan / ton. The downstream tire operating rate is stable, and the demand side is still supported, but the high price raw materials are slightly wait-and-see. According to the business agency, as of the end of October, the semi steel tire operating rate was near 7 cities, which was basically stable compared with the previous period. The ex factory price of petrochemical manufacturers is stable, and traders are cautious in offering and shipping. According to business agency monitoring, as of the 4th, the ex factory price of Daqing Shunding in Northeast China was 10900 yuan / ton.

After market forecast: the high price of raw materials and the rigid support of downstream demand all form a favorable support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, but the downstream has some resistance to the high price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene. It is expected that the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will show a trend of concussion and consolidation in the short term.

Today (11.3) the domestic methanol market rebounded, and some manufacturers continued to increase the ex factory quotation, with the price adjustment range of 30-50 yuan / ton in two days. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong Province was 1882 yuan / ton on November 1, and 1902 yuan / ton on November 3 in Shandong Province. The price cycle increased by 1.06%, and the price rose by 5.99% month on month, with a year-on-year decrease of 38.26%. The methanol market quotation in various regions has also increased to varying degrees, especially in Shandong, Anhui and Fujian. The main factors of this price rise are the favorable futures, the rebound of international crude oil price, the maintenance of production enterprises in some regions, the low inventory, and the favorable influence of the recovery of downstream demand. In the short term, the positive factors will still remain for a period of time, traders are full of bullish mentality. The methanol analysts of the business club predict that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate in the short term.

As of 11.3, summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Regional price

Qinghai Area/

RMB 1710-1750 / t spot exchange in Shanxi

RMB 1780-1800 per ton in Liaoning

RMB 2040-2050 / T in Fujian

The factory reference of Lianghu area is 1920-2000 yuan / ton

Anhui Province 1920-1940 yuan / T acceptance delivery

Henan Province factory reference 1780-1800 yuan / ton

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business society, on October 30, the average price of mainstream manufacturers of salicylic acid (industrial grade) was 13500 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, up 2.53% on a month basis, and fell 11.96% compared with the beginning of the year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the salicylic acid market is running smoothly, and there is no wave for now. Recently, the atmosphere of the salicylic acid market has recovered, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry has been improved, the enthusiasm of traders to store goods has increased, the investment atmosphere has improved, the factory starts at a high level, the shipping pressure is not large, the mentality is relatively flat, and the market is still stable in the short term. As of October 30, the industrial quotation of salicylic acid is mostly in the range of 10000-15000 yuan / ton, with stable price; the pharmaceutical grade quotation is mainly in the range of 23000-25000 yuan / T, with stable price; the sublimation quotation is mainly in the range of 15000-20000 yuan / ton, with stable price, and the actual transaction is mainly negotiated.

The upstream phenol market has been in the range fluctuation, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. The overall negotiation atmosphere in the field is light, and the trading and investment are cold. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average offer of phenol Market in China from Oct. 1 and Oct. 28, 2020 increased from 5487 yuan / ton to 5950 yuan / T in the middle of month, and fell to 5587 yuan / T near the end of the month, and the current market of East China fell by 5500 yuan / ton. The offer in North China, such as Shandong, continued to be high, but the market transactions were few, and the South China region was slightly high, and the downstream still needed to follow up.

3、 Post market forecast

The analyst of salicylic acid of business agency thinks: at present, the atmosphere of salicylic acid market is warming, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry is improved, the investment atmosphere is better, the manufacturer is under little pressure on delivery, and the mentality is relatively flat, and the market is still stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on October 30, the domestic carbon black quotation was 7066 yuan / ton, with a small price fluctuation, and the price fluctuation range was 100-300 yuan / ton, and the carbon black market was mainly volatile this month.

2、 Market analysis

Market

Carbon black continues to inventory, supply and demand are gradually tightened: the domestic carbon black capacity is over production in general, with a total capacity of 8million tons in 2019, with a starting rate of 57%. Only leading enterprises maintain high starting load, and the new capacity of the industry slows down. In 2020, the downstream demand was depressed due to the epidemic. In April, carbon black inventory reached 250000 tons. High inventory and low profit forced the industry to reduce its start, and the carbon black industry entered a new supply and demand balance. In recent years, the demand for downstream tires rebounded, and the supply and demand of the industry began to tighten. In June, the domestic carbon black construction rate fell to 45%. After the new balance between supply and demand, under the promotion of downstream demand, the commencement rate gradually increased to 60%, gradually restored to 2019 level, and the space for commencement and improvement in the future was limited. At present, carbon black inventory has been reduced to 180000 tons, and downstream demand continues to warm up, and industry inventory is expected to further decline.

Upstream and downstream

In October, the coal tar market was operating in a warmer way, with the main increase of 210-230 yuan / ton, and the cost of transferring to carbon black increased by 300-400 yuan / ton; pressure on cost side formed a favorable support for the rise of carbon black price. Support cost of raw coal tar: coal tar is the main raw material of carbon black. In recent years, coal tar is rising, and the cost end of carbon black is strong. At present, the starting load of coke enterprises is high, but the supply and demand of coal tar is still tight, and the downstream deep processing keeps a considerable commencement rate. In addition, there is a demand for goods preparation in the downstream enterprises of coal tar during the national day. The price of coal tar continues to be strong, and the cost end forms support for carbon black.

The demand of downstream tire is warm and rebound: carbon black is used to add tire rubber to improve strength and wear resistance, and the demand of downstream tire accounts for 70%. The demand for tires affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year was low. From January to June, the domestic automobile production was 9.96 million, with a year-on-18%, and the tire output of 278million, which was -31% year on year. The profit of carbon black fell to a low level, and the price difference of “carbon black coal tar” was reduced to 750 yuan at the lowest. In the second half of the year, with the epidemic under control, the consumption of automobiles recovered. In August, the domestic automobile production was 2.12 million, up 6.3% year-on-year, and the sales volume was 2.19 million, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year. The domestic automobile demand has turned positive and overseas exports are positive. In August, the output of steel tires was 43.51 million, up 7.91% year on year, and that of all steel tires was 12.5 million, up 21% year-on-year. The number of new pneumatic rubber tires in July was 47.29 million, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year and a 30.3% increase on a year-on-year basis. The half steel tire operating rate was increased to 70.53%, and the whole steel tire operating rate was increased to 74.27%. In addition, in August, more than one tire enterprise increased its price, and the industry trend recovered.

3、 Post market forecast

In the fourth quarter of 2020, carbon black still has tight supply and strong price or strong operation; in 2021, downstream demand enters the traditional off-season and the coming Spring Festival holiday, the carbon black price continues to push up and hold pressure. Analysts believe that the price is stable and fluctuates slightly.

Price list of aluminum ingot

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market on October 30 was 14843.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.00% compared with the average market price of 14696.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (October 1), 1.99% higher than the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), 14553.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 32.10% compared with the valley value of the average market price in the year (March 24).

In October, the price of aluminum ingot was relatively strong, and the overall operation was horizontal.

In November, the price of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum may maintain the horizontal trend

Multiple arguments:

1. Low level operation of electrolytic aluminum social inventory

According to statistical data, as of October 23, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) totaled 695000 tons, compared with 24000 tons that went to the warehouse on October 16; aluminum rod inventory decreased by 10600 tons to 41300 tons.

At present, the start-up of downstream leading enterprises has remained relatively stable, and export orders have been restored; in terms of domestic trade, orders for industrial profiles, plates and strips, and aluminum alloy ingots have remained stable, mainly from transportation fields such as automobile, photovoltaic and rail transit, while orders for architectural profiles are weak.

The average daily retail sales of 42000 vehicles in October 1-3 weeks increased by 16% year-on-year and 3% month on month compared with the same period in September.

Fitch solutions said in its latest report that China’s accelerated implementation of the “new infrastructure” program would boost production of high-end metals rather than primary metals. Fitch reports that new infrastructure projects, including 5g networks, data centers and artificial intelligence systems, as well as transport and energy infrastructure, such as ultra high voltage (UHV) technology, charging stations and high-speed rail, require a large amount of metals, especially lighter and more advanced metals, in construction. Fitch estimates that nearly 1 million tons of high-end aluminum and 32 million tons of special steel will be needed for China’s new infrastructure projects in 2020 alone, accounting for 3% of the domestic demand for these two metals. This number will continue to rise in 2021 and 2022 as more projects are put into operation. UHV power cables will be the main driver of these metals demand.

On the trend, the risk of large accumulation of aluminum ingots is not big.

Short argument:

1. The continuous tightening of the real estate policy has a great impact on the consumption of aluminum profiles, and the subsequent accumulation risk is increased;

2. The production of raw material alumina is expected to increase greatly, and the cost factor suppresses the rise of aluminum price.

Recently, the hydro bauxite pipeline has resumed operation, which is used to transport bauxite from paragominas mine to alunorte alumina plant. Production at paragominas bauxite mine has resumed and alumina production is in the recovery stage.

At home, Guangxi Huasheng New Material Co., Ltd. has built a production capacity of 1 million tons, and its current operating capacity is 1 million tons / year, and the other 1 million tons is expected to be put into production in October. Affected by production equipment, China Power Investment Guizhou Zunyi Industrial Development Co., Ltd. stopped production in early October and is expected to resume production at the beginning of next year.

summary

At present, the crude estimated profit of aluminum ingot is 2000-2500 yuan / T, and the new production capacity is expected to increase by 460000 tons in November. At the consumption side, the cumulative consumption growth of raw aluminum in the current year is more than 3%, but the overseas epidemic situation is repeated, the pressure on the export side is large, and the downstream consumption situation in November is variable. On the cost side, the raw alumina market is soft, and the cost support is not strong. In general, the supply and demand in November is relatively balanced, and the key point is to see domestic consumption. It is expected that aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate in November.