Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of June 18, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2188 yuan/ton, and the domestic market of methanol tended to be stable.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Northwest methanol market is stable today, Inner Mongolia market is stable, this week guide prices stable last week to 1850 yuan/ton, part of the manufacturers pricing stable last week, the current manufacturers inventory is not high, Inner Mongolia Jiutai MTO load opened to about 90%, to some manufacturers to extract. The market in Guanzhong region is stable. Most of the traders have a strong wait-and-see mentality. Most of the enterprises have not yet set a price. The methanol market in North China fell slightly. Shandong Lunan is down about 30 yuan/ton from the weekend to today, Shandong North and South are stable, downstream enterprises receive goods in general, most of them wait and see, and the market is cautious; Shanxi Linfen and Changzhi are stable, Jincheng area is down about 20 yuan/ton, enterprises ship is general, waiting for tomorrow’s bidding; Hebei is stable, business week is full of wait-and-see mood, pay attention to the new price in northwest.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: narrow range of formaldehyde market. Due to the low price of methanol market and the downstream market start-up decline, under the influence of bad news, formaldehyde enterprises in some areas have lowered their offer, and the actual transactions in various places are lower, and the overall turnover is relatively light. Dimethyl ether: Dimethyl ether atmosphere is general, the mainstream price fell 30-100 yuan/ton compared with last Friday, the terminal stage replenishment ended, manufacturers went flat, mainstream transactions in Hebei and Shandong were reported to be between 3030-3100 yuan/ton, Henan area manufacturers bid significantly, mainstream prices mostly maintained at 3030-3140 yuan/ton. On the supply side, Shanxi Orchid Dimethyl Ether Plant was repaired on June 15, and Anhui Haoyuan Dimethyl Ether Plant was restarted on June 16. At present, low load operation is mainly self-supply. Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market is weakening. During the weekend, the prices of real orders of some manufacturers have fallen, which aggravates the market’s hollow view on the latter part of the acetic acid market. The market turnover is sporadic and the order and inventory are mainly digested in the earlier part. In Shanghai Huayi and Jiangsu Soap acetic acid plants, the market supply has been increasing. Traders have more spare purchases in the early boom, market supply is dispersed, and terminal substantive digestion is limited. In the short term, there is no favorable export support, and the acetic acid market is stable and weak.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: At present, the upstream inventory is under great pressure, and the downstream follow-up is cautious. The pace of trading in various markets is not warm. The upstream and trade mentality are still not optimistic in the short term. Business Cooperative Methanol Analysts expect that the domestic methanol market will remain weak in the short term.

On June 17, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 107.80, which was the same as yesterday. It was 23.24% lower than the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and 101.16% higher than the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was temporarily stable on the 17th. Up to now, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 1,1880 yuan/ton. The domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid was less than 60%. Enterprises reflected that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot was tight at present. Recently, the market situation of hydrofluoric acid improved. Due to the higher raw material fluorite, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers raised the ex-factory price, and the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid was on the rise. Rise. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 11500-12000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 11500-12500 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices increased, spot supply decreased slightly, but demand did not change very much, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market rose.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price shocks. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions have improved, R22 refrigerant plant surface started at 60%, R22 market device start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price trend of R134a is not good, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price has not changed much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the shortage of supply, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has risen.

Refrigerant on-site transactions are general, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is tight, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may continue to rise.

Price Trend

According to data from business associations, MTBE’s price this weekend was 4533 yuan/ton, which was flat compared with the previous week’s price.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Gasoline market prices continue to fall, the market turnover is general, domestic MTBE prices remain stable during this cycle.

Industry Chain: With the decline of international oil prices, market players’bullishness has been strengthened again, the purchasing intention of intermediaries’ raw materials has become more negative, and the overall trading atmosphere of MTBE market has been declining. However, MTBE prices fell by more than 10% in the previous period, and this week MTBE prices were running narrowly.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of MTBE products of Business Society Energy Branch believe that it is still difficult for gasoline market to improve substantially, and the overall market demand for MTBE will remain weak. However, MTBE devices are mostly in a loss state, and there is insufficient room for manufacturers to continue to reduce prices.

On June 12, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 56.45, down 0.32 points from yesterday, down 53.01% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 16.58% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has declined slightly, the market of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has maintained a weak position, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory pressure has continued, high-end transactions have been hindered, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 5700-5800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5400-5500 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5700-5800 yuan/ton, and the market is weak. The price of phthalic anhydride in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the market is not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride is declining.

Recently, the execution price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 5900 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price in the market is 5900 yuan/ton. The quotation is declining, and the port’s market is general. The price of raw materials mixed xylene in upstream is lower, the turnover of phthalic anhydride is general, the stock of phthalic anhydride in port is low, the quotation of phthalic outer plate is lower, the cost of imported phthalic anhydride is oscillating, the actual transaction price is detailed, the price trend in upstream is declining, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is declining. DOP downstream price is lower, DOP downstream demand is general, customer procurement enthusiasm is not good, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7100 yuan/ton, DOP downstream price is still under pressure, downstream price is slightly lower, demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, phthalic anhydride market price is slightly lower, it is expected that the later market price of phthalic anhydride will be around 5700 yuan/ton.

On June 11, the fluorite commodity index was 104.61, unchanged from yesterday, down 17.95% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 112.58% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, domestic fluorite prices have risen, with an average price of 2,987.5 yuan/ton as of 12 days. Recently, domestic fluorite plants have been operating normally, mines and flotation plants have been operating normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is slightly tight, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has risen recently. For the fluorite market, the price of fluorite market has risen on demand. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream pick-up situation improved, resulting in rising market price trend. As of December 12, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2800-3100 yuan/ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2700-3100 yuan/ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2800-3200 yuan/ton. The price trend of fluorite was rising.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. As of the 12th day, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 1 1850 yuan/ton. The fluctuation of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite is weakening and the price of fluorite is oscillating. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water out of the factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal and the price of fluorite is rising. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly.

On June 10, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 57.10, down 0.65 points from yesterday, down 52.47% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), up 17.93% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has declined slightly, the market of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has maintained a weak position, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory pressure has continued, high-end transactions have been hindered, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 5700-5800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5400-5500 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5700-5800 yuan/ton, and the market is weak. The price of phthalic anhydride in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the market is not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride is declining.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 5900 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price in the market is 6000 yuan/ton. The quotation is declining, and the port’s market is general. The price of raw materials mixed xylene in upstream is lower, the turnover of phthalic anhydride is general, the stock of phthalic anhydride in port is low, the quotation of phthalic outer plate is lower, the cost of imported phthalic anhydride is oscillating, the actual transaction price is detailed, the price trend in upstream is declining, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is declining. DOP downstream price is lower, DOP downstream demand is general, customer procurement enthusiasm is not good, DOP mainstream transaction price is about 7300 yuan/ton, DOP downstream price is still under pressure, downstream price is slightly lower, demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, phthalic anhydride market price is slightly lower, it is expected that the later market price of phthalic anhydride will be about 5750 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of June 10, the price of propylene oxide has fallen. At present, the mainstream price of propylene oxide in China is 9000-9500 yuan/ton, which is 2.81% lower than last Monday.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Propylene oxide market prices fell. With the resumption of pre-maintenance plants, the market supply increased slightly. The cash delivery price of Wanhua Chemistry Shandong Mainstream Market was 9200 yuan/ton on the 10th day, and that of East China Mainstream Market was 9500 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: Upstream propylene market price increases. The terminal demand is weak, the polyether market is new and few, the hedging mood is constantly warming up, and the purchase of propylene oxide is cautious and wait-and-see.

Industry: Propylene oxide Market in the global economic growth slowdown environment, it is difficult to be alone. Essentially good and scarce, market support is weak, repeatedly refresh the low points in the year, more vacancies replacement is faster, and the difficulty factor of middleman operation is increased.

3. Future market forecast:

According to business associations, the market for propylene oxide may be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), domestic PVC quoted 6775 yuan/ton on June 3, and domestic PVC quoted 6650 yuan/ton on June 7. The overall price of PVC dropped by 100-200 yuan/ton, or 1.87%, and the market of PVC declined weakly.

II. Cause Analysis

Product aspect: The demand for infrastructure downstream is general this week, the delivery atmosphere of PVC spot market is not good, and the actual volume is low. At the same time, the peak period of centralized overhaul of enterprises has passed, the start-up rate has gradually recovered, and the overall stock of the market has increased. Downstream orders are not good, just need to purchase, the market atmosphere is cold. This week’s volatility of PVC futures downward, the upstream raw material calcium carbide market is weak, raw material support is insufficient, in summary, the domestic PVC market continued to fall this week, as of June 7, the mainstream domestic PVC quotation range is 6600-6900 yuan/ton.

Industry: The rubber and plastic index was 694 points on June 7, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.53% from the peak of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 20.49% from the lowest point of 576 points on December 21, 2015. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date) This week commodity market shocks fell, the overall trend of the rubber and plastic industry continued to decline.

3. Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts believe that the demand for PVC terminals is difficult to improve in the near future. Spot stock of PVC market has increased, market transactions have been cold, macroeconomic overall weak operation. It is expected that in the short term, market turbulence will be the main downward trend, and supply-demand game will dominate the price trend. It is expected that the mainstream price of PVC 5 will be 6500-6900 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

In May 2019, the domestic methanol market showed a strong trend. According to the price monitoring of business associations, the average domestic methanol price was 2174 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 2334 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The average domestic methanol price rose by 7.36% in the month, and the price fell by 20.58% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This month, the domestic methanol market showed a strong trend. From the regional point of view, the market trend in central China has been fluctuating, with a slight rise in April. Among them, the market in Henan has increased by about 4.37% and the market in Lianghu has increased by about 3.48%. The trend of methanol market in North China is strong and volatile, and the focus of market transaction has obviously moved upward. On the one hand, the supply of local and main production areas has been reduced due to equipment maintenance. On the other hand, the port imports in the first half of the month were limited, opening up arbitrage space, and some goods were sold directly to Jiangsu. Southwest methanol market shocks upward, fluctuating range of 10-100 yuan/ton. The price of methanol in Northwest China rose from 1810 yuan/ton to 2050 yuan/ton this month. Most of the shipments in Inner Mongolia this month were purchased by traders and sent to local, Hebei, Shandong and other areas. The news of olefin restart and news restart in Jiutai and Datang brought certain support to the local market.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic market of formaldehyde fell mainly in May 2019. At the beginning of the month, the price of formaldehyde was 1 283 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of formaldehyde was 1 206 yuan/ton. The price of formaldehyde fell by 5.97% in the month, which was 25.56% lower than that of the same period last year. Dimethyl ether: According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic dimethyl ether market fluctuated and fell in May 2019. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic dimethyl ether was 3430 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of dimethyl ether was 3174 yuan/ton. The price of dimethyl ether fell by 7.44% in the month, which was 31.66% lower than that of the same period last year. Acetic acid: According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market declined in May 2019. At the beginning of the month, the domestic acetic acid price was 2716 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the domestic acetic acid price was 2580 yuan/ton. The price fell by 4.99% in the month, 52.39% compared with the same period last year.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives Viewpoint: On the positive side, after the forced market in mid-early May, most enterprises in the Mainland have low inventory, relatively ideal pre-sale and low sales pressure; there are still some methanol plants planned to be repaired in June-July, including Shilin, Shenmu, Yankuang Yulin, Xianyang Chemistry and other enterprises; Jiutai MTO plant in Inner Mongolia was upgraded to 6-70% at the end of June, methanol sales were suspended; Luxi, Shandong Province Nanjing Chengzhi Phase II MTO is expected to start production in June-July. On the negative side, the market of dimethyl ether and acetic acid in traditional downstream products continued to decline, and the profitability of enterprises was not good; the import volume in May was estimated to be around 76-780,000 tons, and the arrival of individual cargo at the end of the month was likely to be delayed. The import volume in June is estimated to be around 76-800,000 tons. Affected by safety and environmental protection inspection, some terminal enterprises in local market are affected by production reduction or parking, which is not conducive to methanol consumption. At present, methanol-related information and its own fundamentals are interwoven, the wide fluctuation of international crude oil and the progress of new methanol to olefins increase the uncertainty of the market; therefore, the logic of weak reality and strong expectation will still dominate the market, and attention should be paid to the suppression of MTO profits over methanol. Overall, business methanol analysts expect the methanol market to be cautiously bearish in June, with strong volatility expected in the latter half of the year.

Price Trend

In May 2019, the domestic 1_tin ingot Market shocked mainly. The average price of the domestic market was 14717.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 143412.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a drop of 2.53%.

On June 3, the tin commodity index was 73.03, down 0.02 points from yesterday, down 27.15% from the cyclical peak of 100.25 points (2011-09-05), and up 70.39% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 09, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: The domestic spot price is affected by futures. The main transaction price of tin ingots has been reduced from 145500-147000 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month to 142500-144000 yuan/ton at present, with a monthly drop of about 3000 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, this month’s market supply is normal, mainly low-price brands and ordinary cloud characters, Yunxi supply is slightly tight. With tin prices falling this month, traders mostly lowered their quotations and shipment enthusiasm is still acceptable, but most downstream enterprises are just in need of purchasing. It is difficult for downstream purchasing sentiment to improve under the influence of the macro-trade war, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and a general trading atmosphere in the spot market. In terms of lifting and sticking water, the average Yunzi and Xiaopai are basically stable at 800-1500 yuan/ton of sticking water, and the Yunxi sticking water is 200 to 300.

Import and export: China imported 13,056 tons of tin ore and concentrate in March, of which 12,064 tons were imported from Myanmar. It is estimated that the tin content of imports from Myanmar in March was 3,100 tons, up 244% annually and 55% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2019, the import tin metal content of tin ore and concentrate in Myanmar was estimated to be 11,100 tons, down 7% annually and 38% year-on-year.

Customs data also showed that the export of Jingxi in March was 1,307 tons, up 187% annually and 102% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2019, the export of refined tin was 2,961 tons, up 100% annually and 51% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2019 is the highest quarterly export volume since the third quarter of 2007.

According to data released by the Ministry of Trade of Indonesia on May 9, Indonesia exported 5,868.32 tons of refined tin in April, up 43% from 4,097.56 tons exported in April last year and 2% from 5,735.68 tons exported in March this year.

Domestic events:

WBMS: Global tin shortage of 4,200 tons from January to March 2019: According to a report published by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global tin market is short of 4,200 tons from January to March 2019. The total reported inventory was 1,000 tons lower than at the end of 2018. From January to March 2019, the world reported a 2,100-ton decline in refined tin production and a 2,600-ton decrease in Asian production. China’s apparent demand fell 5.8% year-on-year. In January-March 2019, the global demand for tin was 916,000 tons, a decrease of 1.9% compared with the same period last year. Japan’s consumption was 7,100 tons, down 12.2% year-on-year. In March 2019, the global output of refined tin was 304,000 tons and the consumption was 32,400 tons.

Malaysia plans to revive its tin mining industry: The Malaysian government is planning to revive its tin mining industry to the golden age decades ago, when it was the world’s largest tin producer. Dr. Xavier Jayakumar, Minister of Water, Land and Natural Resources, said the country had huge tin reserves because there had been no large-scale tin mining in the past 40 years.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In April, Indonesia’s tin exports rose 43% year-on-year. The pressure on tin supply in the international market was relieved and Lunsey fell. Sino-US trade shocks are most obvious in the solder field with the highest proportion downstream of refined tin. Further restraint of tin solder consumption, shrinkage of supply at the mine end and weakening of consumption expectation coexist. In the context of high dominant inventory and sufficient supply in the spot market, it is expected that there is still room for the future market to go down.