1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 19th, the average market price of soda ash was 1546 yuan/ton. Compared with the soda ash price of 1536 yuan/ton on November 11th, the price has increased by 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65%.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the soda ash market has seen a slight increase. On the supply side, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity has decreased, and the pressure on market supply has weakened. Manufacturers are actively shipping, and downstream companies are following up on demand. In some areas, shipments have improved, leading to an increase in soda ash consumption. On site trading is still acceptable, and the soda ash market is consolidating and rising.

As of November 19th, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1420-1600 yuan/ton for light soda ash; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1370-1550 yuan/ton for light soda ash.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market has slightly declined. From November 11th to 19th, the price of glass increased from 16.75 yuan/square meter to 16.65 yuan/square meter, an increase of 0.60%. Some production lines in the glass market have resumed production, and the market operating rate has increased. Downstream parties have followed up as needed, and overall shipments from manufacturers have slightly weakened. The market is mainly bearish, and glass prices have been narrowly lowered.

Future forecast: Currently, the utilization rate of domestic soda ash production capacity has decreased, the inventory of spot soda ash plants has decreased, and the pressure on enterprise shipments has eased to some extent. However, the downward trend in downstream glass prices has insufficient support for the soda ash market demand, and market transactions may weaken. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that soda ash will operate weakly and steadily in the short term, and specific attention should be paid to downstream demand follow-up.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market fluctuated at a low level in mid November, with most spot prices of various brands stabilizing slightly and falling slightly. As of November 19th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 15883.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.73% compared to early November.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: Recently, the overall operating rate of PC in China has slightly decreased, and companies such as Jiaxing Emperor have gradually entered maintenance. The industry average operating rate has narrowly fallen from 79.3% in the first half of the year to around 77%. The weekly production of PC remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons in the medium and long term, with abundant on-site supply and a profound supply-demand mismatch pattern. The pattern of loose supply in the middle of the month has not changed, and it is difficult to see good news on the supply side. Manufacturers are unable to raise prices, and the factory pricing is stuck at a low level. At the same time, there is a mutual occurrence of future maintenance and resumption of work, and there is a drag on PC prices on the market supply side.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic price of bisphenol A remained generally flat in mid November. Although the supply has shrunk due to the maintenance of some enterprises within the range, the main downstream PC and epoxy resin stocks are average. In addition, the direct raw materials phenol and acetone may have weak market conditions or consolidation, which weakens the cost support for bisphenol A. Overall, bisphenol A has not shown any improvement in its support for PC cost.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend continues from the previous weak trend, with the logic of weak and rigid demand in the market. Industry players tend to have a wait-and-see attitude, while downstream factories purchase goods to maintain production. Buyers have strong resistance to high priced goods, and the circulation of goods on site is slow. The overall inventory in China is high, and it is difficult for the demand side to form strong support for spot prices.

Future forecast

The PC market in mid November was generally weak in consolidation. The upstream bisphenol A market remained low and sideways, with overall weak support for PC costs. The load of domestic polymerization plants has slightly decreased within ten days, and the restart and maintenance in the short term are basically the same, with high supply. The downstream weak rigid demand stocking pattern has not changed, making it difficult to drive market trends. Although PC prices have fallen below the annual low, the profound mismatch between supply and demand cannot be alleviated in the short term. Therefore, Shengyi Society predicts that the PC market may still show signs of fatigue in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on November 1, 2024, the reference price of n-propanol in the domestic market was 8966 yuan/ton. On November 19 (reference price of n-propanol was 11300 yuan/ton), the price increased by 2334 yuan/ton, an increase of 26.02%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that from November to present (11.1-11.19), the domestic n-propanol market has experienced a “sharp rise” in the market. At the beginning of the month, the reference price of n-propanol in the market was around 9000 yuan/ton. With the increase of n-propanol shipment prices by major factories in Shandong, the n-propanol market trend began to rise with the pace of major factories. In the middle of the month, n-propanol broke the 10000 yuan mark, and then factories in Shandong and Nanjing continuously raised the price of n-propanol. The n-propanol market saw a broad rise, and the market center continued to climb to high levels, approaching the 11000 yuan mark. As of November 19th, the reference market price for n-propanol in Shandong region is around 10900-11500 yuan/ton, and the reference market price for n-propanol in Nanjing region is around 118000-12000 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Market Support Factors

In terms of supply: As we enter November, the overall production of n-propanol in China has decreased, and the supply of n-propanol in the market has decreased. Compared with the previous period, the overall market supply is tight, the supply pressure has eased, and spot circulation is tight. The supply side supports the continued upward operation of the market.

In terms of demand: The downstream demand side of n-propanol has performed well, and the demand side has improved, with smooth supply and demand transmission. N-propanol is mainly used for the production of n-propyl acetate, accounting for about 65% of the market demand. At present, the downstream production capacity of n-propyl acetate is continuously expanding, which has significantly boosted the demand for raw material n-propanol. Recently, the downstream n-propyl acetate market has been on the rise, and the destocking performance of n-propyl acetate is good. The growth in demand for n-propyl acetate has strongly driven the market demand for n-propanol.

Prediction of the future trend of n-propanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-propanol in the market is mild, and the mentality of industry players is good. As the market rises to a high point within the year, downstream users are slightly cautious and mainly purchase according to demand. However, the overall transmission balance between supply and demand in the market. The n-propanol data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly operate steadily at a high level, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated downward from November 8th to 15th, 2024. On November 8th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5810 yuan/ton, and on November 15th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.58% during the period. This week, the overall focus of the toluene market is relatively low. The demand for the chemical industry in Shandong is still acceptable, but the purchasing enthusiasm of other industries is not high. The overall downstream demand is biased towards rigid demand. The inventory in southern China is high, and refineries are actively shipping. Overall, the supply and demand mentality in the toluene market is strong, and the market trend is weak.

Cost wise: As of November 16th, WTI’s December crude oil futures were reported at $67.02 per barrel, a 4.77% decline for the week. Brent crude oil futures for January were reported at $71.04 per barrel, down 3.83% this week. After the US election, the US dollar exchange rate continued to rise, putting pressure on crude oil prices. In addition, the market expects strong support for the oil and gas industry to reduce inflation and achieve energy independence during the campaign. The market expects an increase in US crude oil production, and the International Energy Agency predicts that the global crude oil oversupply will reach over 1 million barrels per day by 2025. Affected by this, crude oil prices have shown a weak trend this cycle.

Supply side: Sinopec toluene quotation situation: Currently, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, the products are mostly self used, and the production and sales are stable. As of November 15th, East China Company quoted 5600 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5700 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5550-5600 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5700 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and demand support is weak

On November 15th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from November 11th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of November 14th, the closing price of the Asian xylene market fell by $7/ton, with closing prices of $786-788/ton FOB Korea and $811-813/ton CFR China, a decrease of $23/ton compared to the same period last week.

Market forecast: There will still be supply pressure in the toluene market in the near future, with major refineries accumulating inventory and actively shipping within the week. On the demand side, downstream suppliers maintain on-demand procurement. Overall, the performance of supply and demand is weak, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash first fell and then stabilized in November. As of November 11th, the average market price of soda ash was 1536 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton or 3.03% compared to the price of 1584 yuan/ton on November 1st.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market has been mainly weak since November. On the supply side, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity is at a high level, and the market supply of goods is sufficient. Manufacturers negotiate shipments, but the transaction price is low. In terms of demand, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the consumption of soda ash is not significant. On site trading is limited, and the sales pressure of soda ash enterprises still exists. The soda ash market is operating weakly and steadily.

As of November 11th, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1420-1600 yuan/ton for light soda ash; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1370-1600 yuan/ton for the mainstream price of light soda ash.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market has risen strongly. From November 1st to 11th, the price of glass increased from 15.95 yuan/square meter to 16.75 yuan/square meter, an increase of 5.02%. The downstream demand in the glass market is highly active, with smooth shipments from manufacturers and significant destocking in the market. The favorable conditions in the market continue, and glass prices are rising steadily.

Future forecast: Currently, the utilization rate of domestic soda ash production capacity has declined, and the inventory of spot soda ash plants has slightly decreased. Enterprises are actively shipping, and downstream glass prices are relatively strong. However, the demand for soda ash market is limited, and market transactions are limited. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that soda ash will operate steadily in the short term, and specific attention will be paid to downstream demand follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has continued to operate steadily since November, with an average price of 2775 yuan/ton, which is the same as the same period in October.

Supply side

The current production facilities of mainstream formic acid production enterprises in China have not been scheduled for maintenance, and the operating rate remains at a medium to high level. The supply of formic acid in the market is relatively sufficient, and the source of goods is relatively loose. It is expected that there will be no factors on the supply side that provide favorable support for market prices in the short term.

In terms of demand

Downstream buying enthusiasm is not high: downstream customers of formic acid tend to purchase on demand and have a relatively cautious view of market demand. The actual transaction price of the order was slightly lower than market expectations, and due to insufficient demand and price competition, it is difficult for the transaction volume in the market to increase significantly. It is expected that the demand side will not provide favorable support for market prices in the short term.

In terms of raw materials

The overall performance of the methanol market is relatively stable. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises has increased, and some enterprises have started to replenish inventory, maintaining stable market transaction volume. However, the continued accumulation of port inventory and the expectation of imports entering the port in the later stage have suppressed the rise in methanol prices.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that currently, the supply and demand of the formic acid market are weak, coupled with no positive news on the raw material side. It is expected that the formic acid market will continue to operate weakly and fluctuate, and specific market changes need to be monitored.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (11.1-11.8), with an average market price of 17633 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17366 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.51%.

This week’s market analysis

The price of magnesium ingots has continued to decline this week, with a slight downward trend in weak operation. Downstream demand is weak and sluggish, terminal procurement is cautious, and there is a lack of willingness to stock up on essential orders. The supply side inventory is sufficient, and the supply-demand imbalance is quite obvious. Manufacturers have lowered their quotes to promote transactions, but the market lacks positive stimulation. Recently, low prices have been frequently seen in the main production areas, and prices have continued to decline, with overall transactions hovering at a low level. The current price is at an annual low.

Supply and demand side

At present, the overall pace of the magnesium market is relatively slow, and downstream inquiry and procurement customers are not very enthusiastic, with most adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Affected by the recent continuous price cuts, everyone is waiting for lower prices to appear. Due to order restrictions, magnesium alloy factories have reduced production and stopped production, which has an impact on the demand side of magnesium ingots.

comprehensive analysis

Given the weak demand in the magnesium market, there is no positive support from the raw material side. It is expected that the magnesium market will continue to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term without any other positive support.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since November, the supply of hydrogen peroxide has been loose and the market has weakened. On November 7th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 726 yuan/ton, and on November 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 733 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.91% in price.

Loose supply and weak hydrogen peroxide market

Starting from November, the demand for terminal rigidity has been weak, and manufacturers’ purchases of hydrogen peroxide are generally average. The supply of hydrogen peroxide is loose, and negative factors have suppressed the market. The overall quotation is 650-750 yuan/ton. On November 7th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Shandong region was around 650-700 yuan/ton, which remained stable, while the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hebei region was 700 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 760 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 20 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hangzhou area is 950 yuan/ton, and the market remains stable.

Business Society Chemical Analysts believe that in mid November, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals was average, and the upward trend of the hydrogen peroxide market in the future will still be under pressure.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the lithium carbonate market operated weakly and steadily in early November. As of November 6th, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 79200 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.8% from the same period last month when it was 77800 yuan/ton. The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 76800 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.13% from 75200 yuan/ton in the same period last month.

Destocking of lithium carbonate

Lithium carbonate has shown a trend of destocking for 9 consecutive weeks. As of October 27, 2024, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 116500 tons, a decrease of 1.8% compared to the previous period. Among them, the inventory of smelters decreased significantly, with a month on month decrease of 9.1% to 46000 tons. September and October are the traditional peak seasons for lithium carbonate, with a significant increase in demand and an increase in sales growth of new energy vehicles, driving the destocking of lithium carbonate. With the end of the peak season, the growth rate of the new energy vehicle market may slow down, and the demand for lithium carbonate will also decline. This will make it difficult to sustain the trend of destocking.

Lithium carbonate production capacity release

From the supply side, as the price of lithium carbonate reaches a relatively balanced position and maintains a narrow range of fluctuations, the production side is expected to recover. In the future, there will still be lithium resources put into production and climbing, and the supply side is likely to continue to maintain a growth trend,

Capacity unknown

The lithium carbonate data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that although the supply and demand relationship of lithium carbonate has improved in the short term, it is still not optimistic in the medium to long term. In the medium to long term, with the continuous increase of the supply side and the relative stability of the demand side, the lithium carbonate market will face pressure from oversupply.

In October, the domestic ABS market rose and then fell back, with spot prices of various grades basically falling back to pre holiday levels. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 31st, the average price of ABS sample products was 11475 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.33% compared to the price level on October 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: The load level of the domestic ABS industry rebounded after a decline in October. At the beginning of the month, some devices underwent maintenance, and the industry’s operating rate dropped to around 61%. In the second half of the month, some maintenance facilities such as Huajin in the north and Dagu in Tianjin resumed work, and the industry’s operating rate increased by 5% to nearly 67%. The overall amount of goods produced within the month is slightly more than consumed. Maintain a sufficient level of supply. Combined with the macroeconomic atmosphere at the beginning of the month, the positive effects of filling short orders have been exhausted, and the destocking effect is limited. The inventory position remained relatively high at over 180000 tons during the month. Overall, the supply side provided moderate support for ABS spot prices during the month.

Cost factor: During October, the upstream three materials of ABS showed two declines and one rise, which provided average support for the cost side of ABS. The acrylonitrile market rebounded after a decline. In the first half of the month, there was supply pressure in the market, which led to a pullback after a weak consolidation. In the latter half of the year, some regions experienced a contraction in spot supply, prompting producers to raise prices accordingly. The increase in operating rates of downstream products has also raised demand expectations, and acrylonitrile prices have basically returned to the price level at the beginning of the month.

During October, the domestic butadiene market experienced a weak decline, with a drop of over 10%. After the first ten days of the holiday, the opening of the market was affected by the strengthening of the downstream synthetic rubber market, resulting in a slight increase in spot market prices. However, due to insufficient follow-up from downstream demand, a wait-and-see atmosphere gradually emerged in the market, and the fundamentals weakened. At the same time, due to the loose supply in the mid market, it dragged down the mentality of holders and accelerated the decline of market prices. At the end of the month, while the downstream market gained profit transfer from butadiene, consumer power also laid the foundation for the butadiene market. The current spot market is balanced by long and short positions, with prices generally stable and fluctuating slightly.

The styrene market experienced a narrow rebound after a decline within the month. The performance of crude oil in the far end of the range has weakened from strong to weak, coupled with loose supply of direct raw material pure benzene and poor cost support for styrene. On the supply side, it is relatively abundant due to the arrival of cargo at the port and stable industry load, while domestic demand is relatively stable, resulting in a wide decline in prices. In the latter half of the month, the basis difference of styrene futures continued to strengthen, and the inventory of ports such as Jiangsu was digested, causing the styrene market to turn from a decline to an increase. At the end of the month, there were many inquiries in the market, and actual orders were cautious. Overall, there was more decline than increase in the previous month.

In terms of demand, the main terminal demand for ABS in October has not yet shown the peak season level. With the decline of stocking up and short selling after the beginning of the month, the market has returned to the off-season trend, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The high-temperature holiday for home appliance manufacturers has basically ended, but the overall load position of downstream factories is slowly recovering. The recovery of terminal demand is slow, and stocking operations are mainly based on weak demand to maintain production. Traders lack confidence in the future market, their willingness to build warehouses decreases, and their offers are subject to market conditions, resulting in a slower flow of goods. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market.

Future forecast

In October, the domestic ABS market was hindered from rising and prices rebounded. Upstream three materials showed mixed ups and downs, providing average comprehensive support for ABS cost side. The load of ABS polymerization plant has slightly increased, while the high inventory of finished products remains unchanged. The weak demand on the demand side is difficult to change, and market trading is weak. The mismatch between supply and demand within the venue has not been effectively improved. It is expected that the ABS market will mainly operate weakly in the short term in the future.