1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China was 7666.67 yuan/ton. In September, cyclohexane prices showed a weak downward trend, with a 2.13% decrease compared to the same period last month. The overall market lacks upward momentum, and manufacturers currently have average downstream demand. The market transaction atmosphere is positive, and the prices of mainstream cyclohexane factories are stable with a weak trend.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: Domestic pure benzene prices continue to decline, and the current atmosphere of on-site negotiations is average. The international crude oil market is volatile, with average support for pure benzene. Port inventory is mainly depleted, but there is a high accumulation of inventory in the future, and the market mentality is unstable. Shandong local refineries continue to offer discounts to promote spot sales.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is currently insufficient support on the upstream cost side and weak downstream demand, and it is expected that the short-term upward momentum of the cyclohexane market will be insufficient.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, this month the PVC spot market will rise first, and the price will continue the previous decline in the first half of the year. After the Mid Autumn Festival, the market will start and the price will rebound at the bottom. But it did not exceed the high point at the beginning of the month. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of the end of the month, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 5254 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 1.68%.

2、 Market analysis

Supply side: In the first half of the year, the spot market performed poorly, and the linkage between futures and spot prices declined. The main reason is the loose supply performance, increased market shipment pressure, and repeated low points in dealer offers. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. In the latter half of the year, the PVC spot market performed strongly, reversing the previous decline, especially driven by the futures market, which saw the spot market climb steadily. The market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand, and the PVC operating rate has remained stable. In the early stage, companies that had reduced their operating costs have taken actions to increase their costs, resulting in a slight increase in operating rates. This is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.

In terms of inventory, PVC inventory remained relatively high in September, and the process of de stocking was slow. As the end of the month approaches, there is a phase of high transaction volume in the market, and social inventory has slightly decreased. However, considering the previously large basic inventory, the current spot supply side remains abundant.

On the cost side, the market price of calcium carbide also rebounded in September, with a monthly increase of 2.53% according to monitoring by Business Society. The increase in downstream procurement volume in the latter half of the year has a certain stimulating effect, and the upstream and downstream linkage has led to a rebound trend in PVC prices. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 5300-5450 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that PVC supply is still sufficient in the short term, and the operating rate of manufacturers is gradually decreasing. Although the inventory of enterprises has been reduced, the process is slow. The rebound of short-term futures market is mainly due to the emotional improvement brought by the introduction of stimulus measures, and the lack of sustained improvement momentum in PVC fundamentals. With the downstream facing the weakening impact of holiday construction, the positive support effect is not obvious. We should be cautious about the magnitude of the increase.

The phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell in September

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by the ortho phthalic method was 7225 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.78% compared to the price of 7587.50 yuan/ton on September 1st. The price of ortho benzene has dropped significantly, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the phthalic anhydride market has declined. At the end of September, the domestic price for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7000-7200 yuan/ton, and the domestic price for nano phthalic anhydride was 6900-7100 yuan/ton.

Supply side: tight supply of goods

In the first and middle of September, domestic phthalic anhydride plants were operating at low load, with many shutdowns of the naphthalene phthalic anhydride equipment and low load operation of the neighboring phthalic anhydride equipment. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers are experiencing tight supply and queuing for shipments, resulting in a tight supply of phthalic anhydride. The slow recovery of phthalic anhydride production in the latter half of the year has led to significant downward pressure and weakened upward pressure.

The cost of raw material ortho benzene has decreased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the price of ortho benzene was 7100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.13% from the price of ortho benzene on September 1st, which was 7900 yuan/ton. The price of ortho benzene has fallen, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has decreased, and there is significant downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride.

Demand side: DOP market trend “W” – shaped rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8851.25 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 1.26% compared to the DOP price of 8963.75 yuan/ton on September 23rd; Compared to the DOP price of 8463.75 yuan/ton on September 9th, it has increased by 4.58%; Compared to September 1st, the DOP price of 8726.25 yuan/ton fluctuated and rose by 1.43%. In September, the DOP price first rose and then fell, with a “W” – shaped oscillating rise in DOP prices. The expected increase in operating rate of plasticizer enterprises leads to an increase in demand for plasticizers; In addition, due to stocking up before the National Day holiday, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and rose, but the gold nine color was insufficient, and the demand for plasticizers did not recover enough. The price of isooctanol first rose and then fell, and the price of plasticizers rose in a “W” shape.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has fallen, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased; In terms of supply, phthalic anhydride manufacturers are operating at low loads, resulting in a tight supply of phthalic anhydride; In terms of demand, DOP manufacturers have been slow to increase production, while downstream DOP prices have fluctuated and risen. Demand for phthalic anhydride has rebounded, and it is expected that the neighboring phthalic anhydride market will experience a slight fluctuation and decline in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 23rd to 27th, the domestic ethanol price remained at 5802 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 18.42%. The price of raw corn continues to decline, with a slight loosening in costs. As the National Day approaches, holders are actively shipping, but demand has not substantially improved, resulting in a clear situation of oversupply in the market. The domestic ethanol market continues to be weak.

In terms of cost, the increase in corn production in the new season in the production area has led to a seasonal decline in corn. New grains are being launched one after another, but downstream demand is difficult to increase, leading to a strong bearish sentiment in the market and a synchronous decline in corn prices. The cost of ethanol lacks favorable support.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; The main large factories are not operating at a high rate. There have been no significant changes to the equipment in other factories. The ethanol supply is expected to be supported by favorable factors.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption is generally supported; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; Ethyl acetate has heard that the Jinmao Source plant is planning to restart recently, and the operating rate has rebounded. Short term ethanol demand is expected to be supported by favorable factors.

In the future, with light demand and subsequent decline in corn prices, ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic ethanol market will remain weak in the short term.

Product Name: Styrene

Latest price: 9006 yuan/ton on September 26th.

Analysis: According to data from Business Society, the styrene market is weak today. The overall trading atmosphere is poor, with limited downstream demand in the market, cautious procurement, and insufficient market confidence. As a result, the domestic styrene market prices have been lowered. It is expected that the styrene spot market will operate weakly in the short term.

Market Overview

This week, the domestic melamine market experienced a weak downward trend, and the fundamentals showed weakness. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 24th, the reference price of melamine was 6762.50, a decrease of 0.18% compared to September 1st (6775.00). Mainly supported by low-priced orders in the early stage. Overall, the fundamentals are weak, and the trading atmosphere in the melamine market is average.

Supply side

This week, with the recovery of previous maintenance equipment and the gradual production of new capacity, the national urea market is expected to continue to increase in daily output and future market. Enterprise inventory is also accumulating, and the supply side continues to be loose, leading to increasing pressure.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 25th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s urea was 2145.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.29% compared to the beginning of this month (2173.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of demand

The melamine market has recently cooled down, and from the perspective of demand and raw materials, the market has weak positive news and insufficient demand follow-up. It is reported that some sheet metal factories have recently reduced their operating load, and considering that the supply of melamine will increase in the later maintenance and restoration of multiple factories, downstream manufacturers and traders have reduced their demand for melamine procurement.

Overall, the decrease in local production capacity utilization rate of melamine has provided support for the market, but there is insufficient demand and raw material benefits, and the overall market atmosphere is average. It is expected that the short-term market situation will be mainly stable and fluctuating, and in the long run, the market will lack guiding factors and may mainly follow the market trend.

Product Name: Styrene

Latest price: 9180 yuan/ton on September 24th.

Analysis: According to data from Business Society, the styrene market is weak today. The overall trading atmosphere is still not optimistic, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and downstream factories purchasing according to demand. At present, crude oil futures have fallen, affecting market confidence, and the domestic styrene market price has been lowered. It is expected that the styrene spot market will experience slight fluctuations within the range in the short term.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall domestic maleic anhydride market has slightly declined this week. As of September 22, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% from 6650 yuan/ton on September 16.

Supply side: Yantai Wanhua plans to resume production in the near future; This week, the prices of the main factories producing maleic anhydride have fallen, and the quotes from distributors have followed suit. New orders are mainly driven by urgent needs, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. As of September 22nd, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5700 yuan/ton.

Upstream: Recently, the international crude oil market has fluctuated and risen, and the price of n-butane has slightly increased. As of September 22, the price in Shandong is around 5250 yuan/ton.

Downstream: The recent weak consolidation of the unsaturated resin market is the main reason, and downstream production continues to be sluggish, with limited procurement of essential needs and limited support for unsaturated resins.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that the recent decline in the maleic anhydride market, coupled with the expected resumption of production by Yantai Wanhua, has led to a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market and cautious operations; The downstream unsaturated resin market is mainly consolidating weakly, with limited procurement of maleic anhydride; It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will experience a narrow consolidation in the near future.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the average price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market was 15750 yuan/ton on Monday and 15700 yuan/ton on Friday, with a price reduction of 0.32%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market has experienced a slight decline this week. The price of titanium concentrate on raw materials remains weak and stable, while the price of sulfuric acid has declined. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the domestic titanium dioxide market, with light terminal demand and cautious actual orders. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 15000-16300 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14200-14500 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the titanium concentrate market in the Panxi region is operating weakly and steadily. At present, the spot market is generally cold. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a weak market and weak market conditions, with few inquiries for titanium ore, maintaining demand. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1570-1620 yuan/ton, 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2210-2300 yuan/ton, and 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate is mainly stable, and the specific transaction price will be discussed on a case by case basis.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s titanium dioxide analyst believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market has slightly declined this week, with average trading on the market. The downstream market demand is poor, so we should mainly observe and wait. It is expected that the market will operate weakly and steadily in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated one by one.

The market price of epichlorohydrin has slightly increased this week. At present, there is a shortage of spot goods in the market, and supply remains tight. After the price increase, low-priced spot goods are difficult to find, and there has been a decrease in trading orders in the market, with a focus on purchasing small orders for essential needs. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 8350 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.54% compared to the beginning of this month (7987.50 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Raw material side: The market price of raw material propylene has decreased. Although the manufacturer has sufficient inventory, downstream demand is weak, and the company reduces profits by selling at low prices, resulting in a decrease in actual trading volume. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6750.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.12% compared to the beginning of this month (6968.25 yuan/ton).

Equipment situation: According to the overall operating rate of the epoxy chloropropane industry within the week, it was 50-60%.

Downstream demand side: Follow up on small orders for downstream epoxy resin demand, with firm quotes from manufacturers and average actual transaction volume.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the impact of cost fluctuations is not significant, and downstream demand buying is the main trend. There is insufficient follow-up on new orders, and raw material procurement is cautious. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market price changes.