1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 12th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China is 6680 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average price of 6680 yuan/ton on February 5th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 12th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 7116 yuan/ton, which is 0.23% higher than the reference average of 7110 yuan/ton on February 5th.

2、 Market analysis

Market aspect

This week, domestic phosphoric acid prices fluctuated slightly, with thermal phosphoric acid prices fluctuating and wet process phosphoric acid prices rising slightly. As of February 12th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-7000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6600-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6700-7450 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The market price of yellow phosphorus has slightly increased this week. Yellow phosphorus manufacturers mainly raise prices, and downstream procurement is cautious. At present, the market supply is tightening, the market demand is stable, and there is support on the supply and demand side. It is expected that in the short term, domestic yellow phosphorus prices will mainly rise.

Supply and demand side

This week, the supply and demand of the phosphoric acid market are balanced, and the market is mainly running steadily. After the holiday, the inventory of phosphoric acid in the market remained stable, and downstream replenishment was made as needed. It is expected that there will be no significant fluctuations in the short-term supply and demand side.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the recent trend of the phosphate market has fluctuated narrowly. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has slightly increased, and cost support has increased. The supply and demand sides are relatively balanced, and market trading is light. It is expected that the short-term acid market will mainly experience consolidation and operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on February 11th was 916 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.17% compared to the average price of 880 yuan/ton on February 5th.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has risen this week. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, and the operating rate of their own equipment has increased. Ammonium sulfate manufacturers mainly offer high prices, while distributors actively operate. After the holiday, market demand increased and downstream pellet factories actively restocked, leading to a rise in market trading. Recently, urea prices have started to rise, which is favorable for the domestic ammonium sulfate market. As of February 11th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 900 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory price in Shandong region is around 950-980 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market trend of ammonium sulfate has been improving recently, and the market price continues to rise. At present, downstream demand is increasing, and the market has a strong bullish atmosphere, dominated by favorable factors. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will continue to rise strongly in the short term.

After the holiday, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 10th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7312.50 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and increased by 0.17% compared to the price of 7300 yuan/ton on February 6th. The production of phthalic anhydride equipment is stable at a low level, and the inventory of phthalic anhydride is low; The downstream demand for phthalic anhydride remains stable. The price of ortho benzene has risen, the cost of raw materials has increased, and the driving force for the price increase of phthalic anhydride has increased.

Supply side: tight supply of goods

Domestic phthalic anhydride plants operate at low loads, with approximately 60% of phthalic anhydride manufacturers operating at capacity. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers have low inventory levels, resulting in tight supply of phthalic anhydride.

The cost of raw materials such as benzene has increased after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 10th, the price of ortho xylene was 7300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.39% from the price of ortho xylene on February 6th, which was 7200 yuan/ton. The price of ortho benzene has fluctuated and risen, and the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has increased. The upward momentum of ortho phthalic anhydride has increased. The price of industrial naphthalene is consolidating strongly, and the cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is stabilizing strongly. The overall cost support for phthalic anhydride raw materials is increasing.

Demand side: DOP market fluctuates and rises after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 10th, the DOP price was 8601.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.44% compared to the DOP price of 8563.75 yuan/ton on February 6th. After the Spring Festival, downstream customers replenished their inventory, and downstream production was at a high level. The demand for raw material phthalic anhydride urgently needed to be purchased, and the demand for phthalic anhydride briefly rebounded. With the end of the replenishment of plasticizer manufacturers after the holiday, the support for phthalic anhydride demand weakened.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has increased, the price of industrial naphthalene has increased, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has increased. There is a strong driving force for the cost increase of phthalic anhydride; In terms of demand, DOP manufacturers have high operating loads, coupled with post holiday inventory replenishment, which provides significant support for phthalic anhydride demand. In the future, with the end of inventory replenishment, demand will fall, industrial naphthalene prices will rise, cost expectations will increase, neighboring benzene prices will rise, phthalic anhydride costs will rise, and phthalic anhydride prices will slightly increase in the future.

On the first day after the holiday, major mainstream phenol markets in China rose, but then the market fell back, and overall prices remained unchanged compared to before the holiday. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7770 yuan/ton on February 4th, but fell back to 7750 yuan/ton on February 7th, with a weekly fluctuation of 0.9% or 90 yuan/ton.

On the eve of the Spring Festival holiday, the trend of pure benzene is relatively strong, supported by favorable cost factors, and phenol traders are tentatively reporting high prices. There is not much pressure on the spot supply of phenol. On the first day after the holiday, traders generally raised prices, but the pace of factory entry into the market is relatively slow. Some factories have postponed production, and downstream end users have made many inquiries and actual orders for replenishment, resulting in low trading volume.

On the supply side, the operating rate of phenol ketone enterprises after the holiday is 83%. In terms of imports, as of February 7th, the shipment volume of phenol in East China was 16200 tons, with 6000 tons already reached and 10000 tons still in transit.

On February 7th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country were as follows:

Region/ Quotation on February 7th/ Zhou’s ups and downs

East China region/ 7700./ -20

Shandong region/ 7750./ -20

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 7750./ -20

South China region/ 7800./ -50

From the perspective of Business Society, the domestic phenol market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations next week. In the short term, there is not much pressure on spot supply, and downstream factories will resume work one after another next week. The inquiry volume may increase, but most of it will be for urgent needs replenishment. In addition, considering factors such as cost and average price, traders are cautious in raising prices and will focus on the development of the demand side in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on February 6th, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market in Shandong was 9037 yuan/ton. Compared with January 27th, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 9000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 37 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.42%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that after the Spring Festival holiday, the overall market situation of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China, is stable with a slight strong trend. Some cyclohexanone factories and suppliers in Shandong region have raised the price of cyclohexanone narrowly after the holiday, with an increase of about 50 yuan/ton. As of February 6th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price in Shandong region is around 8850-9100 yuan/ton.

Market factor analysis:

Firstly, in terms of demand, downstream demand for cyclohexanone gradually recovered after the holiday, and the demand side urgently needed procurement, with overall performance still acceptable. In terms of supply, after the holiday, the cyclohexanone supply side showed stable performance, and the supply side had sufficient supply. In terms of cost, the high volatility of the pure benzene market on the raw material cost side provides certain support for the cyclohexanone market.

Market price situation of cyclohexanone

Region/ Product/ February 6th

Shandong region/ Cyclohexanone/ Around 8950-9100 yuan/ton

South China region/ Cyclohexanone/ Around 9300-9400 yuan/ton

East China region/ Cyclohexanone/ Around 9200-9300 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is mild, the supply and demand transmission is weak, and the cost side provides market support. The mentality of cyclohexanone operators is still acceptable. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly focus on consolidation and operation, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be paid more attention to.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of around the 6th of February, 85% formic acid in China was priced at 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the year.

From the price detection chart of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the formic acid market has been stable for 2 months, and the mainstream quotation range of enterprises is between 3200-2980 yuan/ton.

From a cost perspective: Due to the approaching Spring Festival and limited transportation vehicles, the transportation cost of raw material methanol is high. Methanol factories offer discounts for shipments, and downstream enterprises have poor procurement, resulting in a decline in the mainland market; The increase in port inventory and the expected decrease in imports have been realized, leading to a decline in the market.

On the demand side, the terminal factory’s entry into the market is driven by strong demand, and the demand follow-up is relatively stable. The overall shipment of formic acid in the market is still acceptable.

The data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and the cost fluctuations are not significant. It is expected that the formic acid market will remain stable with small movements in the short term, and the specific market situation still needs to be monitored based on downstream demand.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market has been weak recently. As of January 27th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6620 yuan/ton, stable compared to January 22nd.

Supply side: Recently, Yantai Wanhua has resumed bidding, leading to a recovery in market supply and a decline in bidding prices. Factory execution prices have also fallen, and downstream unsaturated resin manufacturers of maleic anhydride have entered a shutdown period, with on-demand procurement being the main focus, while maleic anhydride traders remain stable. As of January 27th, the factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6400 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6000 yuan/ton.

Upstream: In late January, the overall price of n-butane rose, and as of January 27th, the price in Shandong was around 5100-5150 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect: As the Spring Festival approaches, unsaturated resin enterprises have entered a parking cycle, and the downstream demand for unsaturated resin is urgent. The support for unsaturated resin is limited, and currently the procurement of maleic anhydride for unsaturated resin is limited.

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that downstream unsaturated resins have entered a shutdown cycle, maintaining a focus on essential demand and providing limited support for the maleic anhydride market; At present, the main factories producing maleic anhydride are mainly implementing stable prices. After the holiday, downstream suppliers may need to stock up urgently, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will rise slightly after the holiday.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 24th, the price of 0 # zinc was 23730 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 2.31% from the zinc price of 24290 yuan/ton on January 20th.

This week’s market analysis

This week, zinc prices have significantly fallen. Recently, due to the frequent specific comments on Trump’s tariff policies, the US dollar index has been hovering at a high level before finally closing higher, causing widespread pressure on the non-ferrous metal market.

Supply side

According to customs data, the import volume of domestic zinc concentrate increased slightly in December. At the same time, a large mine in Hebei has resumed production, further easing the situation of domestic raw material shortage. At present, smelters generally provide feedback that their inventory is relatively sufficient, and the processing fee for zinc concentrate may maintain a slight upward trend in the short term. However, with the depletion of inventory in smelters, it is still necessary to closely monitor the arrival of imported minerals at ports to assess their impact on raw material supply.

Demand side

As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream enterprises are gradually entering the holiday stage, and the weakening of consumer demand in the zinc market has become inevitable. This trend will exert some downward pressure on zinc prices.

Despite the weakening of demand, domestic social inventory remains low in the short term. In addition, with the anticipation of the upcoming two sessions and the expectation of improved domestic demand, there is still some support for zinc prices. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the post holiday accumulation range to evaluate its impact on the trend of zinc prices. According to statistics, as of this week, the domestic social inventory has reached the lowest historical level of accumulated inventory before the Spring Festival.

comprehensive analysis

The effect bias caused by the uncertainty disturbance of macro factors, while the fundamentals of the zinc market are in the process of easing supply contradictions and weakening support. Therefore, it is expected that the zinc price will show a fluctuating and weak trend in the near future.

Recently, the prices of mainstream polyester staple fiber factories in China have remained stable. As of January 23, the average ex factory price of 1.4D * 38mm in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 7318 yuan/ton. Mainly due to the weakening of support for polyester staple fiber caused by cost decline, the prices of traders have slightly decreased, and downstream textile enterprises are basically on holiday near the Spring Festival, resulting in sluggish transactions.

After taking office, Trump’s previous sanctions may be overturned, and his policies such as increasing US crude oil production, imposing tariffs, and trade risks tend to be bearish on oil prices, leading to a short-term pullback in crude oil prices. On January 22nd, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.44 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $79.00 per barrel.

PTA followed the decline in crude oil prices, and as of January 23, the average PTA market price in East China was 5048 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.63% from the beginning of the week. At present, the PTA plant has limited changes, and the short-term supply of goods is still sufficient. Downstream polyester demand is off-season, with slow decline in production and weakened PTA demand.

The atmosphere of the Spring Festival is gradually intensifying, and the terminal stocking phase is coming to an end. Downstream production is gradually being suspended for holidays, and most customers have already stocked up in the early stage. The demand for pre holiday purchases is becoming increasingly light. The weaving industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has seen a decline in production to below 25%, and there is still room for further reduction.

Business analysts believe that the production of polyester staple fiber industry may continue to decline, and the supply of goods will gradually decrease. The cost has weakened, downstream factories have successively shut down for holidays, and the festive atmosphere is becoming stronger. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will remain stable and decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market was mainly sorted out before the Spring Festival, with some brand products experiencing narrow price reductions. As of January 22nd, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7558.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.16% compared to the price level at the beginning of January.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

Recently, international crude oil prices have fluctuated and risen. Due to the extension of the OPEC+production reduction agreement until the end of the first quarter and the obstruction of some shipments, concerns about crude oil supply have risen. In addition, the recent low temperature weather in Europe and America has boosted demand, and various factors have stimulated the rise of the oil market. Overall, the upstream support of PP is strengthening. However, the purchasing power of propylene has been poor recently, and it has risen to a high level in the early stage due to the boost of external markets and raw materials, resulting in a significant decline in propylene in late January. It will take some time for propane to receive favorable transmission from raw materials, and it is still in a weak consolidation market at present. Overall, the PP raw material market fluctuated before the Spring Festival in January, and the cost value maintained positive guidance.

Supply side:

Domestic PP enterprises have resumed work and production, resulting in an increase in pre holiday load levels. In the early stage, the load of enterprises such as Sino Korean Petrochemical and Qilu Petrochemical gradually returned, and overall, the industry’s overall load increased by about 4% to 83%. The domestic weekly average production is over 730000 tons, and the PP shipment volume is flat. At the same time, newly put into operation devices are being produced one after another, and the market supply is abundant. Overall, the supply side provides moderate support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

Before the holiday, the demand for PP tends to be weak and rigid. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice has decreased, and the consumption level of plastic weaving has also declined. Terminal enterprises have basically completed pre holiday stocking, with a low willingness to continue purchasing and a tendency towards short-term buy as you go. Enterprises are gradually entering the holiday season, resulting in a decrease in workload. In addition, with the trend of year-end fund withdrawal in the market, overall, the demand side has shown weak performance.

Future forecast

The domestic PP market price consolidation was weak before the Spring Festival in January. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is still acceptable. The industry supply has increased. According to consumer feedback, as the Spring Festival approaches, businesses are gradually withdrawing from the market, and pre holiday stocking is gradually being completed. However, there is a lack of purchasing power in the market. In the short term, it is expected that PP prices will return to a calm pre holiday market with a relatively stable trend.