1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method rutile type titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market has been downward this week. The average price of titanium dioxide on Monday was 16366.67 yuan/ton yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 16116.67 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 1.53%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market is weak and downward. Overall, the international export situation is still good, while the domestic terminal market is weak, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market. Especially with the reduction of factory prices by Longqi, market confidence is even more lacking. Overall, the market’s order acceptance situation is still weak, and procurement is cautious, with a focus on just in need purchases. As of now, most domestic sulfuric acid based rutile titanium dioxide quotations range from 15400 to 16900 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15300 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region continues to decline. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a weak market situation, with poor market demand. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the trading of titanium concentrate, and market procurement is cautious. As of now, the tax-free quotation for 38-42 grade titanium ore is around 1520-1550 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2200-2260 yuan/ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2500-2630 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate may continue to operate weakly and steadily, and the specific actual transaction price will be negotiated separately.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has remained stable this week. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of sulfuric acid is 247.5 yuan/ton. The downstream demand for sulfuric acid is weak, and the market situation is light. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Titanium Dioxide Analyst believes that currently, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region has fallen, sulfuric acid prices are temporarily stable, raw material support is weak, and downstream market demand continues to be weak. It is expected that in the short term, the focus of the titanium dioxide market will be downward, and the actual transaction price will remain unchanged.

In May, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market continued to decline, with an exacerbation of the decline. The bargaining power of major manufacturers has decreased, resulting in a significant reduction in prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the monthly decline of single crystal dense materials is 16.67%. The main reason is the oversupply of silicon materials and the weak follow-up of downstream demand for photovoltaics. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 31000 to 36000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the operating rate of polycrystalline silicon remained relatively high in May, at around 80% or more. All the equipment in the large factory has started operating, and the supply is showing some pressure. Due to the high inventory of enterprises and the weakened bargaining power of large factories, there has been an irrational decline in silicon materials. On the one hand, the stable production of mainstream large factories, coupled with the addition of new production capacity, has brought incremental growth to the market, and the problem of oversupply performance is becoming increasingly prominent. However, due to the lower operating rate of downstream silicon wafers and the increasing inventory pressure on silicon wafer manufacturers, the performance of silicon material shipments has become increasingly difficult. Silicon material manufacturers have continued to accumulate inventory this month. Until the last week of May, silicon material prices slightly stabilized. The main reason is that most silicon material companies have equipment maintenance, resulting in a slight contraction in production at the end of the month and a relief in supply pressure. But inventory levels are still at a high level.

From the demand side, the downstream demand for photovoltaics in the market was weak in May, with a slight looseness in the production of silicon wafers. This was mainly due to the rising inventory level of silicon wafers. The main reason was the decrease in downstream battery cell procurement, and battery cell manufacturers generally maintained low production to cope with the downturn in terminal installation procurement. It was difficult to digest more silicon wafer inventory, resulting in greater pressure on silicon wafer manufacturers to ship. Therefore, the price of silicon wafers has dropped significantly this month. Generally exceeding 10%. As of the end of May 31st, the mainstream transaction price of single crystal M10 silicon wafers has fallen by 0.4 yuan, with a transaction price of approximately 1.20 yuan per wafer; The mainstream transaction price of G12 has dropped by 0.30 yuan, and is currently reported at 1.80 yuan per piece.

Market forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that the photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing upstream surplus, causing profit compression. Upstream silicon materials and silicon wafer companies are both in a high inventory stage. Currently, silicon material prices have fallen to the bottom, and the market has shown signs of temporary cessation of decline. However, considering supply expectations and high inventory levels, there is no momentum for prices to rebound in the near future, and it is expected that the bottom will mainly fluctuate.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of tetrachloroethylene on May 31st was 5025 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the average market price of tetrachloroethylene was 5050 yuan/ton. The average high point price during the month was 5212 yuan/ton, and the average low point price during the month was 5012 yuan/ton. In May, the market price of tetrachloroethylene decreased by 0.5%.

2、 Analysis and Review

In early May, the price of tetrachloroethylene slightly decreased. According to customs data, the import volume of tetrachloroethylene in April was about 25 times that of last year. The import volume of tetrachloroethylene in the first four months of this year was 16338.322 tons, an increase of about 119% compared to last year, and the export volume was 5870.04 tons, a decrease of about 8.75%. Downstream enterprises actively purchased from abroad, and domestic market demand weakened. Enterprises have started construction at a high level, with stable supply. The market for tetrachloroethylene has slightly increased in the middle of the month, and some enterprises have undergone equipment maintenance, resulting in a weakening of market supply. At the end of the month, the demand side showed weak performance, downstream market weakened, equipment maintenance and procurement declined, leading to a decline in the tetrachloroethylene market.

In early May, the downstream refrigerant R125 market continued to operate steadily at a high level. With the arrival of summer, the demand for downstream industries such as air conditioning, commercial refrigeration, and chillers increased, and the optimistic atmosphere in the industry continued. Driven by the “trade in” campaign in various regions on May Day, retail enterprises such as automobiles and household appliances saw year-on-year growth of 4.8% and 7.9%, respectively. Provide incremental demand space for refrigerants. In mid May, the R125 market fell, with prices ranging from 40000 to 40500 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 4000 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. It is understood that the quota for R125 in the first four months of this year has been over utilized overall. Recently, shipping costs have increased, cabin shortages have occurred, and exports may be delayed. Domestic market demand is limited, and market prices have fallen slightly, still operating at a relatively high level.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s tetrachloroethylene analyst believes that the downstream refrigerant market has fallen but remains relatively high and strong, and it is expected that the price of tetrachloroethylene will remain stable in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the price of acetic acid fluctuated weakly in May. As of May 31st, the price was 3150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month’s acetic acid price of 3250 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 3.08%.

As of the end of the month, the price details of acetic acid market in various regions of China in May are as follows:

Region/ May 6th/ May 16th/ May 31st

South China region/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton

North China region/ 3110 yuan/ton/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 3200 yuan/ton/ 3350 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton

Jiangsu region/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 3200 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton

Zhejiang region/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton

The acetic acid market fluctuated in May. In the first half of the year, the price of acetic acid showed a strong upward trend. With the return of the May Day holiday, downstream demand for on-demand replenishment increased, and the trading atmosphere on the market improved. In addition, due to the failure of the Tianjin Alkali Plant equipment to reduce losses, enterprises had a strong intention to raise prices, and market trading continued to rise; In late May, the price of acetic acid weakened and declined, mainly due to downstream resistance to high priced sources, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere in the market. At the same time, as the acetic acid plant resumed its initial load, manufacturers showed an increased willingness to ship. In order to promote transactions, the focus of acetic acid trading has shifted downwards; At the end of the month, some facilities in East China were shut down, and the company’s quotation slightly increased.

The methanol market on the raw material side first rose and then fell. As of May 31st, the average price in the domestic market was 2761 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 4.15% compared to the price of 2651 yuan/ton on May 1st. In the first half of the year, some methanol plants in the main production areas were repaired as scheduled, and some plants unexpectedly shut down, resulting in a tight overall supply, driving the domestic market to rise and operate. At the same time, the unstable situation abroad has affected the arrival volume of methanol at ports, resulting in relatively low inventory levels in ports and the mainland. In the face of tight supply, the methanol market has risen significantly; In the latter half of the month, port supply gradually resumed, and the equipment in the northwest production area gradually resumed. The overall gas buying in the methanol market was average, and the domestic methanol market fell from a high level; As the end of the month approaches, the market supply increases, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak, resulting in a continued weak consolidation of the methanol market.

The downstream acetic anhydride market fluctuated and declined in May, with a price of 5437.50 yuan/ton as of May 31st, a decrease of 3.33% compared to the price of 5625.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In mid to early May, the upstream acetic acid price increased slightly, and the cost support for acetic anhydride was positive. The demand for acetic anhydride remained stable, and the price of acetic anhydride rose accordingly; In the latter half of the year, the price of acetic anhydride declined weakly, with upstream acetic acid falling and cost support weakened. The acetic anhydride market was clearly bearish, and the price trend declined.

According to analysts from Business Society, the current operation of acetic acid enterprises is stable, with sufficient market supply and no pressure on inventory. Shipping is the main focus, and downstream buyers are not very enthusiastic about purchasing goods. They follow up on demand when entering the market, and market trading is limited. In the short term, the acetic acid market is observing and consolidating, with narrow price fluctuations. In the future, specific attention will be paid to downstream restocking situations.

The domestic titanium tetrachloride market operated weakly and steadily in May. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the benchmark price of titanium tetrachloride in Shengyishe was 10675.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.39% compared to the beginning of this month (10825.00 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: In May, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region decreased. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of May 31, the benchmark price of Shengyishe titanium concentrate was 2253.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.03% compared to the beginning of this month (2300.00 yuan/ton).

The downstream titanium dioxide market prices are weak and weak, and the current market trading situation is average.

Business Society’s titanium tetrachloride analyst believes that the high cost side of titanium tetrachloride is under pressure, and downstream titanium dioxide market prices are weak and weak. Currently, the market trading situation is average. Recently, market prices have remained weak and stable.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data from Business Society, after the decline in the domestic PC market in May, spot prices of various brands fluctuated and fell. As of May 30th, the benchmark price for the mixed PC of Shengyishe was around 16450 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.50% compared to May 1st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the domestic bisphenol A market operated weakly in May. The upstream phenol market is volatile, with low demand and a weak atmosphere in the acetone market. The raw material of bisphenol A did not provide good support, with the decline concentrated in the middle of the month. At the end of the month, there was a narrow rebound, but the strength was insufficient, making it difficult to form effective cost support for PC.

In terms of supply: In May, the overall operating rate of domestic PCs remained stable with slight fluctuations, and the industry average operating rate decreased by about 4% to 72% compared to the previous month. The on-site supply of goods is relatively abundant, and the mentality of enterprises has weakened. The factory price has fluctuated and decreased to find a market equilibrium point. During the month, some companies had arrangements for maintenance of production lines, but Hengli Petrochemical’s new production capacity continued to be released, basically smoothing out the trend of supply and demand reduction. In the short term, the level of market supply pressure may remain, which will generally drag down PC prices.

In terms of demand: In May, PC consumption will continue to follow the previous weak pattern, with the main logic leaning towards maintaining production and digesting inventory for just in need. Downstream enterprises have seen a decline in load, reduced stocking enthusiasm, and a decrease in consumption. Buyers have some resistance to high priced sources, and the demand side has poor support for spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

After the decline in the PC market in May, it was sorted out. The upstream bisphenol A market is relatively weak, Poor support on the PC cost side. The domestic polymerization plant has experienced a narrow decline in load and limited changes in supply. On the demand side, there is a downward trend in consumption, with weak trading on the market, and the market is about to enter the off-season. It is expected that the PC market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the average price of isobutanol for enterprises was 8175.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.83% compared to May 1st (the reference price of isobutanol was 7950 yuan/ton).

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that the isobutanol market trend in May was upward. After the holiday, the price center of raw material propylene shifted upwards, with the main increase in raw material isobutyraldehyde fluctuating. The cost support was still acceptable, and the market spot supply was tight. In addition, the related product n-butanol continued to rise after the holiday. With multiple supports, the market price of isobutyraldehyde steadily increased in the first half of the month. In the second half of the month, factories did not push up prices, but their demand performance was average. They were slightly cautious about high priced raw materials, and small orders followed closely. The market transactions were stable and orderly. As the end of the month approached, supply side inventory was low, and the strong operation of related products such as n-butanol boosted the market, causing the isobutanol market to rise again.

Cost side:

Isobutyraldehyde: According to the monitoring chart of Business Society data, the price of raw material isobutyraldehyde increased significantly in May, providing stronger support for the isobutanol market.

Propylene: In May, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and stabilized. On May 28th, the reference price of propylene was 6824.60, an increase of 0.35% compared to May 1st (6800.60), providing moderate support for the isobutanol market.

Related product n-butanol:

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that the overall trend of n-butanol market in Shandong, China in May was upward. The price changes of n-butanol had a significant impact on the isobutanol market, and May provided strong support for the rise of isobutanol market.

Future prospects:

The isobutanol analyst from Business Society believes that the current prices of raw materials propylene and isobutyraldehyde are relatively strong, and short-term cost support may still exist. Supply side inventory is currently operating without pressure, and downstream inquiries and purchases are mainly in demand. It is expected that the isobutanol market will remain strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to changes in the prices of related products, n-butanol.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of ammonium sulfate in China was 813 yuan/ton on May 1st, and 848 yuan/ton on May 28th. The price of ammonium sulfate increased by 4.30% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate has steadily increased this month. After the May Day holiday, the demand for downstream compound fertilizer market increased, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement increased. The trading atmosphere in the ammonium sulfate market was good, and prices continued to rise. This month, urea prices have shown a positive trend, indirectly benefiting the ammonium sulfate market. The export market has not improved yet, and the focus of transactions is relatively weak. As of May 28th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 820 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 850-880 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from March 4, 2024 to May 20, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle has seen mixed ups and downs. Ammonium sulfate rose significantly in May, with the largest increase of 1.61% in the week of May 20th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe Ammonium Sulfate, the demand for downstream compound fertilizers is gradually weakening, and new orders in the market are limited. However, with the support of essential demand, the price of ammonium sulfate remains strong, and international demand needs to be released. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will mainly experience high level consolidation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 20th to 27th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province dropped from 3632 yuan/ton to 3593 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.06%, a month on month decrease of 2.37%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.70%. The weak operation of international crude oil has led to significant competition for refinery resources, putting pressure on the asphalt market. Some high priced resources still have expectations of making up for losses. In the short term, the downstream procurement intensity of terminal demand is generally limited, and the domestic asphalt market will maintain a weak adjustment in the short term.

On the supply side, in terms of major production enterprises, Qilu Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil from May 19th to 21st, while Shandong Shengxing maintained its conversion status. However, Dongming Petrochemical resumed asphalt production on May 17th, and the production in Shandong region slightly decreased. The increase in daily production of Jinling Petrochemical has significantly increased production, and the resumption of asphalt production in Xinhai, Jiangsu at the end of the month has led to a slight increase in the operating rate in the Jiangsu region. Cangzhou Xingaoyuan Plant has stopped producing asphalt, resulting in a slight decrease in supply in Hebei region. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month. In April 2024, the import volume of asphalt was 365000 tons, which was+23.6% compared to the previous month and+10.8% year-on-year. The import volume has increased, and there is a negative impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have overall declined, with the main bearish factors being the delayed expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, ongoing market concerns about the economic and demand outlook, and an increase in US commercial crude oil inventories. As of May 24th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $81.84 per barrel.

On the demand side, some provinces have seen a decrease in actual demand due to environmental inspections. Currently, the lack of terminal demand is the main factor restricting the price decline.

As of the close of May 27th, the petroleum asphalt futures market closed down. The main asphalt contract 2409 opened at 3671 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3695 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3667 yuan/ton. It closed at 3671 yuan/ton at the end of the day, a decrease of 1% from the previous trading day’s settlement, a decrease of 0.03%. The trading volume was 161889 lots, and the position was 220869 lots, with a daily increase of 807.

In the future market forecast, international crude oil is expected to operate weakly, with weakened support for asphalt costs and increased market wait-and-see expectations. Some refineries and traders are more proactive in shipping, and market prices are stable but declining. On the demand side, rainy weather has a slight obstacle to hard demand, but actual demand remains relatively flat. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will remain weak in the short term.

Stable operation of ethylene oxide prices in May 2024

The price of ethylene oxide remained stable this week. According to data from Business Society, as of May 24th, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China was 6900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43% compared to the average price of 7000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; Compared to the beginning of the year, the average market price was 6400 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.81%.

Loose prices of some downstream products

At present, the industrial chain is in a state of poor cost oriented transmission. After the upstream raw material ethylene price rose, it remained at a relatively high level, but some downstream product prices slightly fell. Coupled with the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer prices remaining stable, the demand for ethylene oxide is generally supported.

Fallback logic

The early maintenance equipment has started to resume production, and there has been a slight increase in supply pressure. Coupled with the unsatisfactory transmission of downstream product prices, the price of ethylene oxide has begun to decline. However, the cost support brought by the raw material side remains, and it is expected that there is not much room for price decline in the short term, with short-term fluctuations being mainly weak.