Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the figure above that the domestic urea market price was temporarily stable this week, and the urea price was 2506.00 yuan/ton, down 6.56% year on year. On November 6, the urea commodity index was 116.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.48% from the highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15) in the cycle, and up 109.64% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Weak cost support, general downstream demand, weak urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in China is temporarily stable this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream market of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG fell slightly, from 5564.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5344.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 3.95%, 29.99% lower than the same period last year; The price of anthracite dropped slightly. Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) dropped from 1850 yuan/ton at the weekend to 1630 yuan/ton at the weekend, down 220 yuan/ton. Upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the price support for urea was average. This week, the price of melamine at the downstream of urea was consolidated at a high level, which was 8266.67 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand, agricultural demand is small and industrial demand is weak. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is declining, and the demand for urea is weakening. The price of melamine was consolidated at a high level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was general. In terms of supply, Shanxi has limited production for environmental protection, and the daily output of urea is below 150000 tons.

Urea price may fall slightly

In the middle and late November, the domestic urea market may slightly fluctuate. The urea analysts of the business association believed that the price of anthracite in the upstream of urea fell slightly, and the urea cost support weakened. The downstream agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is weak, and the daily urea production has a downward trend. In the future, urea may decline in a narrow range.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 4, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products this week was 16075.00 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of the same period last week. The overall market price fluctuation range of PMMA is small. At present, the mainstream manufacturers’ quotation range is about 16100 yuan/ton, and the focus of negotiation is stable. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the procurement atmosphere is general.

This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent superior products was 16075.00 yuan/ton. The overall market was stable, with limited price fluctuation. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers was about 16100 yuan/ton. The price of PMMA was stable. At present, the overall market is in balance of supply and demand, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The supply side is normal.

Rubber and plastic index: On November 3, the rubber and plastic index was 670 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 36.79% from the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and up 26.89% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the analysts of PMMA from China Business Association, PMMA will operate stably in the short term.

In October, the market of nitrile rubber weakened and the price fell. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of nitrile rubber was 16925 yuan/ton at the beginning of October, and 15650 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 7.53% from the beginning of the month. In October, the demand side of nitrile rubber was sluggish, the supply side was loose, and the market performance was weak. Since October, the factory price of Lanhua NBR has been lowered twice, and by the end of the month, the factory price of Lanhua NBR N42 was 14200 yuan/ton; The offer from the merchants gradually goes down with the factory price. As of October 31, the mainstream offer of Shunze nitrile 3355 market in East China was 15200~15500 yuan/ton, the mainstream offer of Lanhua nitrile 3305 market was 14500~14700 yuan/ton, and the mainstream offer of Nandi nitrile 1052 market was 17800~18300 yuan/ton.

In October, the domestic nitrile rubber plant basically operated normally, the enterprise inventory accumulated, and the pressure on the supply side of nitrile rubber increased.

In October, the raw material butadiene fell sharply, the price of acrylonitrile rose, and the cost of butadiene acrylonitrile rubber weakened. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 30, the price of butadiene was 7603 yuan/ton, down 8.43% from 8303 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of October 30, the price of acrylonitrile was 10890 yuan/ton, up 10.33% from 9870 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Taking the ex factory price of Lanhua nitrile rubber 3305 as an example, as of October 30, the ex factory price of Lanhua nitrile rubber 3305 was 14800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 9448 yuan/ton; At the beginning of the month, the ex factory price of Lanhua Nitrile 3305 was 16200 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 9650 yuan/ton; Relatively speaking, the change of raw material price in this month has little impact on the cost of nitrile rubber, but the profit of nitrile rubber is reduced due to the lower price.

In October, the downstream rubber products industry started at a low level, and the purchase of nitrile rubber was sluggish. The market transaction was light, and the demand was not supported by nitrile rubber.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the business community believe that the current demand for NBR is sluggish, and the supply side is loose. It is expected that the NBR market will continue to be weak in the future.

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, as of October 28, the average price quoted by formic acid enterprises was 2533.33 yuan/ton, down 27.62% compared with the price on October 1, down 35.04% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, and down 68.53% compared with the same period last year.

In October, the market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid fell sharply. From the supply and demand side, the enterprise started normally, the new installation line has been opened, and the market supply has increased significantly. On the demand side, domestic downstream pharmaceutical, rubber, leather, pesticide and other industries have followed up on demand, and export orders have performed fairly well. However, the market pressure is highlighted due to the increased supply of goods. The inventory is gradually under pressure. The enterprise is actively shipping, and the price has fallen.

In terms of cost, the reference price of upstream caustic soda was 1174.00 on October 27, a decrease of 5.17% compared with October 1 (1238.00); The upstream liquid ammonia market in Shandong stopped falling and stabilized on October 27; For upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price was temporarily stable on October 27. On October 27, the reference price of sulfuric acid was 422.00, up 42.57% compared with October 1 (296.00); The upstream methanol market continued to decline on October 27. On October 27, the reference price of methanol was 2808.00, a decrease of 6.79% compared with October 1 (3012.50). The price of upstream products rose and fell this month, with limited support for formic acid.

According to the formic acid analysts of the business community, at present, the main raw material methanol is mainly weak, the cost support is weak, the supply support is insufficient, and the demand performance is fair. The market transaction is mainly on demand. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will be weak, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price index of the domestic rare earth market declined slightly in October, and the domestic rare earth market declined slightly. On October 31, the rare earth index was 650 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 35.45% from the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 139.85% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The prices of domestic metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have declined by different degrees in Chengdu. As of the end of the month, the price of praseodymium and neodymium metal was 795000 yuan/ton, down 2.45% in October; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 652500 yuan/ton, down 2.97%; The price of neodymium oxide was 745000 yuan/ton, down 1.32%; The price of neodymium metal was 920000 yuan/ton, which was flat in October; The price of praseodymium metal was 945000 yuan/ton, down 5.03%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 725000 yuan/ton, down 2.68%.

The circulation of light rare earths in China has decreased, but the enterprises have overstocked inventories, coupled with poor downstream procurement after the festival, and the market price of light rare earths has declined. The supply of light rare earths is mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia. Due to the blockade of Baotou and other regions, the manufacturer’s shipment is limited. At present, there is no notice on the exact release date. The production of enterprises is relatively normal, but the shipment is difficult, and the spot supply has decreased. In the near future, downstream businesses have been well stocked before the National Day holiday, and some manufacturers have mainly digested the inventory after the holiday. The purchasing mood is not good, resulting in few orders, difficulty for dealers to ship, and low transaction prices.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium oxide in China has dropped. As of the end of the month, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.29 million yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.43%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.29 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.66%; The price of dysprosium metal was 2.975 million yuan/ton, down 0.67%; The price trend of domestic terbium series is declining. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 13.3 million yuan/ton, and the price of metal terbium is 16.55 million yuan/ton. The price of heavy rare earths fluctuated mainly. The raw material inventory of the separation enterprises in the regions where rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places decreased. The production enterprises began to work gradually. The rare earth market atmosphere improved. In addition, the export of Myanmar was limited, and the global supply of rare earths was relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price of heavy rare earth on the market has little change.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is guaranteed. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will be 2.672 million and 2.61 million respectively in September 2022, up 28.1% and 25.7% year on year respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 700000, a record high. The production and sales of automobiles rose significantly, the demand in the new energy field was still supported, and the domestic light rare earth market declined slightly.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earths have achieved sustainable development. Due to repeated epidemics in some regions and limited downstream procurement, the orders of magnetic material enterprises have been poor recently. Downstream businesses mainly digest inventory. However, with the start of the rare earth peak season, Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, expects that the decline of rare earth market is limited, and there is still a trend of recovery in the later period.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the PC market fell in October, and the spot prices of various brands stabilized after falling. As of October 31, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of the business community was about 18366.67 yuan/ton, up or down by – 2.99% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the bisphenol A market fell sharply due to the overall decline of the industrial chain after the festival and the negative effects of supply and demand as well as the decline of two consecutive auctions. In addition, the industrial load has increased, the upstream and downstream are weak and resonant, and the decline of the entire industrial chain has intensified. In the middle of the month, the price has dropped to near the cost. In addition, the low price supply has stimulated downstream replenishment. The market momentum has warmed up, and the price rebounded in the second half of the month.

In the first half of October, the bisphenol A market declined significantly, and the PC cost side support collapsed. In terms of industry load, Shandong PC enterprises had a certain scale of maintenance this month, and the operating rate of domestic PC enterprises declined gradually from 55% to more than 40%. The supply of goods in the market was generally abundant in the month. In the second half of the month, the supply was tightened by a narrow margin, and the pressure on the supply side improved slightly. The downstream actual demand does not match the traditional peak season of “Yinshi”, and the actual demand is less than that of previous years. The terminal enterprises just need to maintain production, and the on-site PC digestion speed lags behind. The merchants gave up their profits to encourage buyers to enter the market, and the market offer warmed up to an average price of more than 18000 yuan/ton in the last ten days, but the PC real order delivery is still not much.

Future market forecast

Analysts from the business community believed that the domestic PC market stabilized after the fall in October, the upstream bisphenol A market fell back to a warmer level, and the cost side did not support PC well. On the supply side, the supply side’s supply of goods on the market tightened slightly due to the expansion of capacity loss in the month, and the pressure on the supply side eased slightly. The demand is weak. In the second half of the month, some businesses followed up to make concessions, most of which were scattered small orders. The market is full and empty, and it is expected that the PC spot price will be adjusted to operate in a narrow range in the near future.

Acetic anhydride price rose first and then fell in October

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of acetic anhydride rose first and then fell in October, but the rise of acetic anhydride was not lasting, and the price of acetic anhydride fell quickly after a short rise. As of October 28, the price of acetic anhydride was 5750 yuan/ton, down 6.25% from 6133.33 yuan/ton on October 13, and up 1.47% from 5666.67 yuan/ton on October 1; Affected by the post holiday replenishment, the price of raw material acetic acid soared, the price of methanol soared, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the price of acetic anhydride rose; At the end of the replenishment, the price of methanol plummeted, the price of acetic acid fell, the rise of acetic anhydride was not supported enough, and the price of acetic anhydride fell.

Acetic acid price rose first and then fell in October

It can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price of the business community that the price of acetic acid rose first and then fell in October, and the price of acetic acid rose briefly and then fell rapidly. As of October 28, the price of acetic acid was 3442.50 yuan/ton, down 8.75% from the monthly highest price of 3772.50 yuan/ton on October 13; The price of acetic acid increased by 3.92% from 3312.50 yuan/ton on October 1. The post holiday replenishment and the maintenance of acetic acid enterprises had a double impact. The price of acetic acid rose sharply, up to nearly 14%. With the completion of the replenishment and the resumption of the construction of acetic acid enterprises in the middle of the year, the price of acetic acid fell sharply. As the price of acetic acid approached the cost line, the downward space for the price of acetic acid decreased, and the price of acetic acid in the future was weak and stable.

Methanol prices fell sharply after a brief rise in October

It can be seen from the trend chart of methanol price of the business community that methanol fell sharply after a short rise in October. As of October 28, the price of methanol was 2790 yuan/ton, down 14.07% from 3246.67 yuan/ton on October 8. In October, the price of natural gas, the raw material of methanol, fell sharply, the cost of methanol fell, the price of methanol fell with it, the cost of acetic acid and acetic anhydride downstream of methanol fell, and the downward pressure of acetic acid and acetic anhydride downstream increased.

Future outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analysts of the business community, the price of acetic anhydride rose briefly in October and then fell rapidly. The high price of acetic anhydride was difficult to last for two reasons: the prices of upstream raw materials methanol and acetic acid rose first and then fell, and the cost of acetic anhydride was not supported enough; Downstream acetic anhydride demand remains weak, and downstream support is insufficient. In general, the demand for cost reduction is weak, and the support for acetic anhydride growth is insufficient. It is expected that acetic anhydride prices will fall in a weak and volatile way in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of domestic LNG on October 1 was 6834 yuan/ton, and the average price of domestic LNG on October 27 was 5710 yuan/ton. Domestic LNG prices fell 16.45% this month.

2、 Market analysis

It can be seen from the weekly rise and fall from August 1, 2022 to October 23, 2022 that the domestic LNG industry has seen a lot of ups and downs during the cycle. The maximum increase in the cycle was 10.25% in the week of September 12, and the maximum decrease was -7.43% in the week of August 22. There was a large drop in October, with the largest drop of -6.19% in the week of October 10.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the average price of domestic LNG on October 27 was 5710 yuan/ton, 1124 yuan/ton lower than 6834 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 16.45% lower, 18.85% lower than the same period last year.

The domestic LNG market price fell sharply in October, with a decline of 16.45% in the month. During the National Day, the price of liquefied natural gas was lowered due to transportation obstacles. After the National Day holiday, the transportation of dangerous chemicals returned to normal, and downstream replenishment increased. The price of LNG continued to rise under the favorable situation of demand follow-up. In the middle of October, the domestic LNG price began to fall, and the demand for downstream replenishment decreased. The epidemic situation has a great impact on upstream shipment, and the market has fallen back. As the impact of the domestic epidemic weakened, the traffic began to recover smoothly, and LNG stopped falling and stabilized. In late October, due to the strengthening of epidemic control, poor traffic, sufficient on-site supply and insufficient downstream demand, liquid plants reduced prices one after another, resulting in a strong bearish sentiment in the market. As of October 27, 5700-6200 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia, 5890-6200 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 6000-6550 yuan/ton in Shanxi, 6000 yuan/ton in Ningxia, 6200-7100 yuan/ton in Hebei and 6550-6900 yuan/ton in Henan.

3、 Future market forecast

LNG analysts from the business community believe that the domestic LNG market fell sharply in October, and the market continued to decline. At present, the market trading and investment are flat, the traffic is blocked under the control of the epidemic situation, and the market supply exceeds the demand. It is expected that domestic LNG prices will continue to fall mainly in the short term under the negative factors.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of nitrile rubber was 15850 yuan/ton on the 26th, down 0.47% from the previous day. Domestic nitrile rubber started at a high load, with relatively sufficient supply. Downstream insulation foam, rubber hose and other industries started at a low level, purchasing was not active, market transactions were light, and some nitrile rubber merchants’ offers were adjusted downward by 200~300 yuan/ton. Since October, the price of butadiene as raw material has declined in a weak way. Although the price of acrylonitrile has risen significantly, it is still at a low level within two years, and the support for the cost of butadiene rubber is not obvious.

Future market forecast: due to weak downstream demand and loose supply, the nitrile rubber market is expected to continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business associations, the price of toluene weakened this week. The price was 7790 yuan/ton on October 14 and 7690 yuan/ton on Friday (October 21), down 1.28% from last week; It was up 11.77% year on year.

2、 Analysis and review

In the early stage, the supply of toluene increased due to the inflow of toluene from Yatong Petrochemical, Qirun Petrochemical and Xinhai Petrochemical into the market. Since the beginning of October, the demand for downstream chemical products has remained just in demand, the terminal gasoline has continued to fall, the demand is weak, the pressure on supply and demand has increased, and the pressure on toluene has declined.

In terms of external markets, the price of toluene in Asia fell in shock this week. On Thursday (October 20), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was $959/ton, a year-on-year drop of $20/ton, or 2.04%.

In terms of crude oil, international oil prices fell into a deadlock this week. Under the expectation of multi country interest rate increase, economic recession worries continue to depress the crude oil market; However, supported by the sharp decline of US crude oil inventory and OPEC+production reduction in the week, oil prices rose and fell. As of October 21, Brent price this week rose by 1.87 dollars/barrel, or 2.04%, compared with last week; WTI fell 0.56 USD/barrel, down 0.65%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China continued to rise this week. On October 14, the price was 25033 yuan/ton, and on October 21, the price was 26833 yuan/ton, up 7.19% from last week and 79.49% from the same period last year.

In terms of PX, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On October 14, the price was 9300 yuan/ton, and on October 21, the price was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and up 27.4% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline rebounded after falling this week. On October 14, the price was 8420 yuan/ton, and on October 21, the price was 8303 yuan/ton, down 1.39% from last week and 5.19% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, the crude oil market continued the long short game. Positive, OPEC+production reduction, European winter energy supply shortage. Bad news: European and American interest rate hikes are expected, and the market’s worries about economic recession continue to weigh on the crude oil market. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Most of September is the peak demand season, while the downstream demand of toluene is poor at present. In the short term, toluene continues its weak trend and the price rebound is blocked. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.