1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market adjusted mainly within the range this week (10.20-24), and the price did not change much compared to last week, with a slight increase in market prices during the week. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4542 yuan/ton, with a 0.13% increase in PVC prices this week.
2、 Market analysis
The ex factory price of PVC manufacturers has not changed much this week, with some minor adjustments controlled within 50 yuan/ton. The main reason is that the fundamentals have not improved significantly, and crude oil prices have rebounded. However, the PVC futures market has not yet shaken off the weak pattern and maintained a range bound volatile market this week. The price of PVC remains weak, and the overall range of volatility continues to narrow. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the spot PVC market has shown loose supply and demand, and most manufacturers are operating stably. There is not much pressure on supply and demand, and dealer offers are generally weak. Downstream demand performance is insufficient, and downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices. The enthusiasm for inquiry procurement is not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. Overall, it is still mainly based on basic needs. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4600-4700 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, as we enter October, the price of calcium carbide continues to decline. This week, the calcium carbide market still shows weakness, and prices continue to decline. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the decline this week was 0.31%. The weak prices of upstream raw materials have brought certain negative effects to PVC.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in terms of cost, upstream calcium carbide continues to be weak, and there is no signal of a rebound in the market, which will continue to suppress PVC prices in the later stage. From the perspective of supply and demand, the PVC spot market is lukewarm, mainly due to insufficient downstream operating rates and average demand. The supply-demand pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and it is expected that PVC prices will continue to maintain a range adjustment pattern next week.

The domestic market for anhydrous hydrogen fluoride rose in October. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 23, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 12666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.47% compared to September.
Raw material side: The domestic fluorite market operated at a high level in October. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 23rd, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3637.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76% compared to the beginning of this month (3610.00 yuan/ton). The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is still tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department needs to reform fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operating rate of fluorite enterprises. The operating rate of some mines in the south is relatively low, and the supply of fluorite enterprises in the field is tight, leading to obvious intentions of holders to raise prices. As the temperature in the north drops, the winter shutdown period for mines and beneficiation plants in the northern region is approaching, further tightening market supply and maintaining a high level of fluorite market. The cost of hydrofluoric acid still has some support.
Demand side: The overall operating rate of the downstream refrigerant industry was relatively low in October. Affected by the load reduction or shutdown of R125 East China plant, the market supply has decreased, but the price increase is limited. The market price of R22 continues to decline, with the East China market price dropping from 33500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 16000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.52%. Overall, downstream refrigerant terminal demand is weak and has not improved, making it difficult to form effective support for anhydrous hydrogen fluoride.
Market forecast: The raw material fluorite market is supported at a high level, but downstream willingness to accept high priced raw materials is weak. Procurement is mainly based on essential needs, and the market trading atmosphere is cold. It is expected that the anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market will mainly consolidate in the later stage. More attention should be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, multiple negative factors continue to exist after the National Day holiday, and the domestic adipic acid market continues to decline. On October 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 7200 yuan/ton. On October 22nd, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 7000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.78%.
Negative pressure on domestic adipic acid market continues to decline
Since the National Day holiday, the prices of cyclohexanone and pure benzene raw materials for adipic acid have been weak and declining. Due to weak demand for terminal rigidity, the transaction volume of adipic acid market has declined, and manufacturers have lowered their ex factory prices. The adipic acid market continues to decline. As of October 22, the mainstream market price in Shandong is around 7000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market price in Jiangsu is 6800 yuan/ton. The average price in the domestic market has dropped to 7000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton, and the decline is approaching 3%.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that by the end of October, the rigid demand in the terminal industry was poor, and the rise in raw material prices was weak. The market for adipic acid will continue to weaken in the future.

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 848 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 7.12%. On October 16th, the Business Society Chlor Alkali Index was 785 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.11% from the highest point of 2128 points during the cycle (2021-10-24), and an increase of 10.25% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda remained stable over the weekend this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 760-890 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 890-1000 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 2700-2800 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). From the perspective of the Shandong region, inventory pressure is not high, and there is an increase in maintenance and a decrease in supply. There are still companies with maintenance expectations next week. Downstream alumina has a purchasing intention in the near future, but distributors still have pessimistic sentiment, and the overall trend is expected to be weak. They will purchase caustic soda as needed.
Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has remained stable, and downstream consumers in China have been purchasing on demand. There is not much inventory pressure on caustic soda companies, and the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Since October, the domestic PTA spot market prices have continued to explore low levels. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 17th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4381 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.65% from the beginning of the month. Due to insufficient cost support, the commissioning of new facilities, and weak demand, coupled with negative factors, PTA prices are running weakly.
The price trend of the crude oil market has declined. As of the 16th, the settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $56.99 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $61.06 per barrel. The crude oil market is affected by negative factors. On the one hand, OPEC+has launched a new round of production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day, but the market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply, and the crude oil market continues to decline; On the other hand, the easing of the situation between Israel and Palestine, coupled with weakened demand from the United States, has dragged down global economic and demand expectations due to US tariffs. In addition, the increase in US crude oil inventories has led to the end of the peak oil season in the United States, and the global economic outlook and oil demand are not optimistic, resulting in a rapid decline in international oil prices.
In terms of its own equipment, Yisheng Ningbo’s 2 # 2.2 million ton PTA plant reduced its load to around 80% on October 17th due to unforeseen circumstances. Hengli Petrochemical’s 1 # 2.2 million ton unit will shut down on October 9th. Yisheng New Materials’ 2 # 3.6 million ton PTA plant experienced a load reduction on October 7th due to unforeseen circumstances and resumed operations on October 14th. Hailun Petrochemical’s 3.2 million ton new unit will be tested and discharged at the end of July, with a continuous increase in load to 80% -90%. The overall operating rate of the industry is currently around 75%.
In terms of demand, downstream polyester industry equipment has experienced load increase and long shutdown equipment restart phenomena, but the progress of load increase is slow and maintained at around 87%. As the e-commerce shopping festival approaches, the consumer atmosphere in the terminal clothing and home textile industry is gradually becoming stronger. However, weaving enterprises still have limited new and supplementary orders, and their performance is lukewarm. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is around 64%.
Business analysts believe that there are still many uncertain factors such as tariffs, and the sentiment in the commodity market is suppressed. The loose supply and poor demand in the crude oil market have put pressure on the oil market. In addition, downstream confidence in the market is insufficient, procurement enthusiasm is average, and the PTA market lacks further driving force, with prices still mainly fluctuating weakly.

After the holiday, the domestic epoxy propane market surged and then stabilized. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of October 16th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8066.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.86% compared to October 1st.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: The market price of raw material propylene has slightly increased, and there is still support for the epoxy propane market on the raw material side. As of October 16th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6400.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.18% compared to the beginning of this month (6543.25 yuan/ton). The rise in raw material propylene prices has provided some support to the epoxy propane market.
Supply side: The epoxy propane supply side will tighten after the holiday. Multiple companies have announced parking or load reduction plans, resulting in a reduction in market supply scale. However, downstream enterprises have weak demand and are mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach, with cautious procurement. Expected stable operation of epoxy propane in the later stage.
Demand side: Downstream polyether enterprises are holding onto their essential procurement needs in multiple dimensions after the holiday, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The load adjustment of the polyether end is limited, while the propylene glycol enterprise is increasing its load, and the overall demand performance is flat. The demand side has limited support for the epoxy propane market.
Market forecast:
Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the positive support for the domestic epoxy propane market is relatively limited, with a slight rebound in the raw material side propylene market and acceptable support. However, downstream demand is weak, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will remain stable in the later stage, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 15th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 12500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.46% compared to the beginning of this month (12200.00 yuan/ton).
Price influencing factors:
Raw material end: High level support of glycerol propylene. The combination of high external prices and tight supply has led to increased cost pressure on the glycerol based epichlorohydrin factory, significantly squeezing profit margins and forming rigid support for epichlorohydrin prices. The current supply-demand imbalance in the glycerol market is prominent, and it is expected that cost pressures will continue to be transmitted to the downstream epichlorohydrin industry chain in the short term. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 15th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6380.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.48% compared to the beginning of this month (6543.25 yuan/ton).
Demand side: The pressure of epoxy chloropropane price increase is being transmitted downwards along the industry chain. Although coating companies are facing significant cost pressures, downstream stocking demand still provides rigid support for prices. In the short term, the market presents a dual feature of cost push and demand bottoming out. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain weak and stable in the later stage.
Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the prices of glycerol and propylene on the cost side still provide support for epichlorohydrin, and downstream demand is limited due to urgent purchases. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain weak and stable in the later stage, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, after the National Day holiday, negative factors still exist, and the domestic adipic acid market continues to decline. On October 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 7200 yuan/ton. On October 14th, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 7033 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.31%.
The bearish sentiment is still steadily declining in the domestic adipic acid market
Since the National Day holiday, the prices of cyclohexanone and pure benzene raw materials for adipic acid have been weak and declining. The demand for terminal rigidity is sluggish, and the transaction volume in the adipic acid market is average. Manufacturers have lowered their ex factory prices one after another, and the adipic acid market continues to decline. As of October 14th, the price has fallen to 7033 yuan/ton, with a price drop of nearly 3%. The combination of negative factors has led to a continuous bottoming out of the adipic acid market.
An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in mid October, the rigid demand in the terminal industry declined, and the raw material market was sluggish. The market for adipic acid continued to fluctuate weakly in the future.

Yesterday, Sinopec’s listing price was lowered, and the market continued to decline. The listing price of Sinopec East China has been lowered by 100, with a price of 4400 yuan/ton, and the listing price of Sinopec North China acetone has been lowered by 200, with a price of 4300 yuan/ton. The factory’s profits have once again fallen, and it is difficult to change the loss situation in the short term.
The supply is sufficient, and the port inventory increased to a high of 31000 tons at the beginning of the week. The operating rate of domestic phenol ketone enterprises is nearly 80%, and the spot circulation in the market is high. Traders are under great pressure to ship, and low-priced goods are frequently available. At this time, Sinopec has lowered its listing prices, intensifying the market’s wait-and-see sentiment. In terms of demand, the participation of intermediate traders is limited, and downstream factories urgently need to follow up, resulting in fewer actual transactions. However, the market is currently at a low level for the year, and downstream companies are purchasing in moderation according to demand.
The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on October 14th are as follows:
Region. Quotation on October 14th /Daily increase and decrease
East China region / 4250-4300./ -100
Shandong region / 4350./ -100
Yanshan region / 4350./ -100
South China region / 4450./ -50
From the perspective of Business Society, the acetone market is difficult to change in the short term, and today the market is still running weakly, making it difficult for trading to improve.

After the holiday, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rebounded
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 11th, the price of isooctanol was 6533.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.00% compared to the price of 6666.67 yuan/ton on October 1st; The price of isooctanol has increased by 0.77% from 6483.33 yuan/ton on October 10th. Partial maintenance of isooctanol equipment in some enterprises resulted in a slight decrease in operating load and supply of isooctanol after the holiday; The profit margin of isooctanol is on the edge of the cost line, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices. After the holiday, the supply of isooctanol decreased, and companies replenished their inventory, resulting in a rebound in the price of isooctanol.
Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and fall
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 11th, the DOP price was 7309.16 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.79% compared to the DOP price of 7367.50 yuan/ton on October 1st. After the holiday, DOP prices fluctuated and fell, with less than 60% of DOP enterprises operating at capacity and a slight decrease in operating rates. The demand for isooctanol was weak, and downward pressure on isooctanol prices still exists.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, on the supply side, the profit of isooctanol has decreased, and isooctanol enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. The equipment operating load of isooctanol enterprises has slightly decreased, and the supply of isooctanol has decreased. In addition, post holiday inventory replenishment has increased the support for the rise of isooctanol. In terms of demand, DOP prices have fluctuated and fallen, while DOP companies have seen a slight decrease in production, and the support for isooctanol demand has weakened. In the future, the demand for isooctanol remains weak, and there is significant downward pressure on isooctanol; However, due to the decrease in supply and the need to replenish inventory after the holiday, there is a strong desire for an increase in the price of isooctanol, and it is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and consolidate in the future market.