1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 22, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1655 yuan/ton, which is 0.60% lower than the reference average price of 1665 yuan/ton on September 15.
2、 Market analysis
market situation
This week, the domestic urea market prices continued to weaken and decline. This week, the urea futures market price continued to decline, and the spot market followed the fluctuations of the futures market. As of September 22, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1610-1670 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1630-1660 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1620-1680 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1660 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1670 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic urea market is experiencing oversupply. In terms of supply, some early parking devices have resumed production, resulting in a further increase in daily output and an increase in market supply. In terms of demand, the current industrial and agricultural demand is relatively weak, downstream procurement is cautious, and the market trading atmosphere is not good.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the domestic urea market has continued to weaken and decline recently. At present, the urea market has sufficient supply but poor market demand. Approaching the National Day holiday, urea manufacturers are mainly reducing prices to attract orders. It is expected that domestic urea prices will continue to weaken and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on September 19th, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China was referenced at 7000 yuan/ton. Compared with September 1st, the price decreased by 87 yuan/ton, and compared with August 1st (cyclohexanone price reference 7262 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 262 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.61%.
From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early September, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province was mainly weak and consolidating, with relatively calm news on the market. Entering this week, the cyclohexanone market has been declining, with the focus of on-site negotiations shifting downwards, with a reduction of 50-100 yuan/ton. As of September 19th, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China is around 6900-7000 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the overall supply side of the cyclohexanone market has increased, and there is some pressure on supply. Factories are actively shipping, and downstream demand continues to be dominated by rigid procurement. The support provided by the demand side to the market is limited, and the transmission performance between cyclohexanone supply and demand is loose.
In terms of cost: Currently, the market for pure benzene on the cost side of cyclohexanone is fluctuating at a high level, and cost pressure still exists. The profit of cyclohexanone is under pressure. On September 18th, the reference price of pure benzene was 6048.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.23% compared to September 1st (5975.33 yuan/ton).
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is relatively weak, and the mentality of industry players is average. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the consolidation and operation of the domestic cyclohexanone market will dominate, and more attention should be paid to the stocking situation of downstream markets before the holiday, as well as changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market was mainly adjusted within the range this week (9.15-19), and the price did not change much compared to last week. After the market price rose during the week, it slightly fell back. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4680 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.43% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the ex factory prices of PVC manufacturers mostly remained at last week’s price level, with some slight adjustments controlled at 20-50 yuan/ton. Due to the lack of significant improvement in fundamentals, crude oil prices are hovering at mid to low levels, and the futures market is maintaining a range of volatile prices. After the PVC price rose at the beginning of the week, it stopped rising from mid week to the weekend and slightly fell back, with a weak price and a slight upward shift in the overall range. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the spot PVC market has shown loose supply and demand, and most manufacturers are operating stably. The supply pressure has not changed much, dealers’ offers are generally weak, downstream demand performance is insufficient, downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4730-4800 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the calcium carbide market has rebounded this week, and prices have risen this week. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the increase this week is 4.0%. As the weekend approaches, calcium carbide prices are rising, and due to the lag in transmission, it may provide support for PVC costs in the later stage.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the PVC spot market is lukewarm, mainly due to insufficient downstream operating rates, average demand, and difficulty in improving the supply-demand pattern in the short term. It is expected that PVC prices will continue to maintain a range adjustment pattern next week.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 11th to 18th, MTBE prices rose from 5105 yuan/ton to 5177 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.42% during the period, a month on month increase of 2.32%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.33%. The domestic MTBE market has fluctuated and risen. The demand side of the terminal has rebounded, and the activity of MTBE transactions has significantly increased. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream terminal enterprises are gradually carrying out moderate stocking, and the overall trading atmosphere in the MTBE market is good.
In terms of cost and crude oil: the main positive factors for the rise of international oil prices are: the Russia-Ukraine conflict caused the market to worry about potential supply risks, and the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to support oil prices. As of September 17th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the December contract was $67.46 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, international crude oil futures have fluctuated upwards, while gasoline and diesel prices have fluctuated downwards. Refinery shipments in the region are mainly driven by volume, but there is insufficient improvement in terminal demand. Social units have slow inventory digestion, and intermediate traders have few large order operations. Gas station merchants mainly have a small amount of fast-moving consumer goods, and the market trading atmosphere is flat. The MTBE demand side is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side: Resource supply may increase slightly. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on September 17th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $3.66/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $681.52-683.52/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $10.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $929.24-929.74/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $9.99/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $825.59-825.94/ton (233.11-233.21 cents/gallon).
The future forecast of raw material prices may be biased towards consolidation, and cost pressure still exists. Some large manufacturers still export to ports, and the overall fluctuation is not significant. The MTBE analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by sporadic fluctuations.

Price trend: (9.9-9.17)
The supply of dichloromethane in the Shandong market is loose but demand is weak. Market transactions are cautious and mainly wait-and-see. Enterprises continue to offer discounts and reduce inventory, leading to a continued downward trend and bottoming out of the market. According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 17th, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was 1845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.9% during the period and a year-on-year drop of 33.63%. The price has reached a new low in nine years. At present, the operating rate of the supply side has been reduced, enterprises have lowered their burdens and stabilized prices, exports continue to increase, market supply pressure has eased, and prices have bottomed out and stabilized.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: Supply contraction to reduce negative pressure and stabilize prices
The operating rate of the methane chloride plant in the industry has been reduced from a high of 85%, and the Dongying Huatai plant has been reduced to 50% operation. The inventory pressure of enterprises is high, and they have been continuously offering discounts on shipments in the early stage. Currently, they are easing the supply pressure by reducing the burden and increasing their willingness to stabilize prices.
Cost side: large stability with small fluctuations, overall stable cost support
In terms of raw material methanol, the market was supported by the peak season of “Golden September and Silver October”, and the price slightly increased. As of September 17th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2286.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% during the cycle. However, the supply of equipment from mainland China is still increasing, and imports to ports are currently at a high level. Downstream equipment maintenance has weakened demand, and overall inventory continues to rise. Port inventory has reached a historic high, suppressing upward space. The shipment of liquid chlorine is poor, and prices in Shandong have slightly decreased, resulting in stable and weak overall cost support.
Demand side: Weak domestic demand, bright external demand
In terms of domestic demand: the main downstream refrigerant industry is constrained by quotas, with rigid demand but no significant increase; The fields of pharmaceuticals, chemical synthesis, and others have experienced a mild recovery, while industries such as adhesives and coatings have been affected by the downturn in the real estate market and still rely mainly on small orders for essential needs.
In terms of exports, it continues to perform strongly, with increased exports to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and other regions. In September, export inquiries and ship arrangements remained active, effectively easing domestic supply pressure.
Market outlook: Short term or slight rebound, with limited rebound amplitude
With the reduction of enterprise maintenance burden and the maintenance of high exports, the marginal improvement of market supply and demand structure, there is a slight room for price exploration. However, due to the limited recovery of domestic demand, weak support on the cost side, and insufficient driving force for a significant increase in the market, it is expected to mainly operate with strong fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has shown a fluctuating downward trend recently. As of September 16th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 71683 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.07% compared to last week (September 9th), a month on month decrease of 11.94%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.33%; The benchmark price of industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 70016 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.57% compared to last week (September 9th), a month on month decrease of 11.56%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.63%.
Continuous release of supply side pressure
Oversupply is the core factor that suppresses prices. The second phase expansion project of Catherine Lithium Mine in Australia has reached full production capacity, with an annual production capacity jumping from 400000 tons to 650000 tons of lithium concentrate, and an additional supply of about 30000 tons of lithium carbonate raw materials per year; Domestically, after completing equipment maintenance, Jiangte Electric’s Yichun lithium mining base has stabilized its daily production of lithium carbonate at over 30 tons. Small and medium-sized lithium salt factories that were previously shut down in Sichuan, Jiangxi, and other places have also resumed work. The daily production of lithium carbonate in China has increased by 18% compared to the end of the second quarter. ​
Of particular importance is the strong expectation of resuming production in Ningde Times’ Jianxiawo mining area. Market news shows that the approval of its mining rights certificate and mining license is progressing smoothly, and it is expected to resume work and production soon.
The demand side shows structural differentiation
The performance on the demand side is mixed. The traditional main demand areas are under significant pressure, with sales of mid to low end new energy vehicles declining year-on-year. Power battery companies mainly focus on destocking. Although the production scheduling of top battery factories has increased month on month, their actual purchasing willingness is not strong. ​
At the same time, energy storage demand has become the only bright spot in the market, with the proportion of energy storage battery cell production rising to 38.5%, reaching a historical high and becoming an important force supporting demand. The low price has also stimulated some demand for replenishing inventory, and as the National Day stocking cycle approaches, downstream willingness to replenish inventory has increased. ​
Game between Policy and Cost Factors
At the policy level, the “Industry Self discipline Convention” signed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in July, which requires “sales at no lower than cost price” and guides leading companies to gradually reduce production and control output, has to some extent slowed down the speed of price decline.
The cost difference leads to significant market differentiation: Qinghai Salt Lake lithium extraction still maintains a high operating rate with a cash cost of 40000 yuan/ton,; The cost of extracting lithium from spodumene is 50000 yuan/ton, but there is still a marginal profit; However, the cost of extracting lithium from lithium mica in Jiangxi is as high as 80000 to 120000 yuan/ton, causing companies to suffer deep losses and forcing some production capacity to exit the market. Although the current price is close to the cash cost line of some enterprises (about 68000 yuan/ton), substantial capacity clearance has not yet occurred.
The lithium carbonate data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the lithium carbonate market is still in an adjustment cycle of “expansion price decline loss”, and the process of supply-demand rebalancing has not been completed. The pattern of low price fluctuations is difficult to fundamentally change in the short term, and it is expected that short-term prices will continue to fluctuate and seek a bottom.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the formic acid market has been fluctuating and weakening recently. As of September 15th, the benchmark price of industrial grade 85% formic acid in China was 3100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.73% compared to last week (September 8th), a month on month decrease of 6.63%, and a year-on-year increase of 15.89%.
The formic acid market has experienced a transition from expected support to actual weakness
From September 8th to September 10th, the market focused on the expected supply contraction brought about by the maintenance plan of Liaocheng factory. Although the insufficient downstream operating rate in China constrained domestic demand, the stable performance of the export side formed a certain support, and prices showed a temporary balance under the supply-demand game. At this stage, the market sentiment is cautious and optimistic, and traders are mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude waiting for the maintenance to be implemented. ​
On September 11th, the price of formic acid was lowered by 120 yuan/ton, and the operating rates of downstream major application fields such as agriculture, leather, and chemical industry continued to be low, resulting in weak demand for terminal procurement; Secondly, the maintenance plan for the Liaocheng factory was not executed as scheduled, and the market’s expectations of supply contraction were dashed, resulting in a loss of confidence among traders and a general wait-and-see attitude towards holding money, leading to a sluggish trading atmosphere in the market.
Among the main downstream industries of formic acid, the agricultural sector is currently experiencing a seasonal adjustment period, and the demand for feed additives is growing weakly; The leather and textile industries are affected by sluggish terminal consumption, and the operating rate remains below 60%; Although there is a rigid demand in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, the procurement pace has slowed down, and the overall trend is characterized by “on-demand procurement”. The combined effect of weak demand in multiple fields has significantly reduced the domestic market’s ability to digest. ​
The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the mentality of traders has undergone a rapid change from expectations for the peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” in early September to concerns about weak demand in mid September. The formic acid market is in a weak and volatile pattern, and in the short term, the market is likely to remain in its current stalemate. It is necessary to closely monitor the progress of maintenance plans and the opportunities for breaking through downstream demand changes.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 5th to 12th, the average price of BDO in China remained at 7542 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 8.97% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.75%. The BDO market is operating at a stalemate, and downstream industries are experiencing an overall increase in production, resulting in an increase in raw material digestion. The factory’s shipment pace is still acceptable, and the industry has been losing money for a long time. The suppliers are actively stabilizing the market. The supply and demand negotiation game continues, and the market remains deadlocked.
On the supply side and in terms of equipment, Wanhua Chemical’s equipment has experienced a decrease in load due to unforeseen circumstances. However, some of the previously maintained equipment has been restarted and is now operating stably. The overall production of the industry has slightly increased, but the supply side support is relatively average. The supply side of BDO is affected by negative factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market is on the rise, with smooth shipments from production enterprises and overall tight market supply. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market continues to be weak. As of 10:00 pm on September 11th, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2285 yuan/ton. The raw material calcium carbide has seen an upward trend, while methanol has been weakly consolidated, and the impact on BDO costs is mixed.
On the demand side, with the restart or load increase of some maintenance equipment, the downstream PTMEG, GBL-NMP, PBAT, and PU pulp industries have seen an increase in capacity utilization, resulting in a continuous increase in raw material digestion. Multi dimensional contract orders are being followed up, and the intention to purchase spot goods is weak under cost pressure. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
In the future, the BDO market is expected to experience a decrease in supply and an increase in demand, with ongoing negotiations and a stalemate in the market. Some devices are expected to undergo maintenance, resulting in a reduction in BDO supply; And the industry continues to suffer losses, with suppliers actively stabilizing the market. The overall downstream production has increased, leading to an increase in the digestion of raw materials, but resistance to high prices has suppressed the trend of raw materials. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly focus on consolidation and observation.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 11th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6710 yuan/ton, which is 0.15% higher than the reference average price of 6700 yuan/ton on September 5th.
2、 Market analysis
Market Aspects
This week, the domestic phosphoric acid market prices have slightly increased. As of September 11th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6450-6850 yuan/ton, in Yunnan region it is around 6500 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 6400-6800 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost
In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the market price of raw material yellow phosphorus remained stable and stable. At present, the supply of yellow phosphorus in the market is sufficient, and the number of new orders in the market is limited. The demand side is relatively weak, and many adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will remain stagnant and operate in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been stabilizing recently. The main focus is on the consolidation of raw material yellow phosphorus, and there is currently no significant fluctuation in cost. The phosphoric acid market has stable trading and downstream purchases are made on demand. It is expected that the domestic phosphoric acid market will remain stable in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 10th, the average market price of acetic acid was 2500 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton or 2.88% compared to the price of 2430 yuan/ton on September 1st. Since September, the domestic acetic acid market has been relatively strong, with low production rates in Henan province on the supply side and the main acetic acid production facilities still in a shutdown state. Industry players have a positive attitude, and factory prices have risen. Acetic acid prices in other regions of China have also increased, and downstream demand for purchasing has followed suit. There is not much pressure on enterprise sales, and under the influence of market mentality, acetic acid prices remained strong in early September.
The raw material methanol market was relatively strong in early September. As of the 10th, the average price in the domestic market was 2296 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.91% compared to the price of 2253 yuan/ton on September 1st. The rise in methanol futures market has driven the spot methanol market to improve, and enterprise quotations have risen sharply. However, some downstream companies have resistance to high prices, and the demand side has suppressed the increase in methanol prices to some extent, resulting in a slight increase in prices during the cycle.
The downstream acetic anhydride market has slightly increased, with the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride rising from 4092.50 yuan/ton to 4117.50 yuan/ton from September 1st to 10th, a decrease of 0.61%. The upstream acetic acid market is relatively strong, and the atmosphere of the acetic anhydride market is bullish. However, the downstream demand performance is average, and the shipment of enterprises is limited. The mentality of the market is game, and the price of acetic anhydride fluctuates slightly during the cycle.
In terms of future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that some of the domestic acetic acid maintenance facilities have not yet been restored, and the mentality remains strong. At the same time, the inventory pressure of enterprises is not high, and the supply side support is good. The downstream demand side follows up on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is good. It is expected that the acetic acid market will operate steadily and wait, and the market supply situation will be closely monitored in the future.