In March, the price of rare earth in the domestic market was significantly polarized. The price of medium and heavy rare earth continued to rise, but the price of light rare earth fell. According to the rare earth sector index of business association, on March 12, the rare earth index was 342 points, which was the same as yesterday, 65.80% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 26.20% higher than the lowest point, 271 point, on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

As of March 13, the average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals in China was 377500 yuan / ton, with the price trend rising 1.34% in March, down 0.66% year on year; the average price of dysprosium was 2325000 yuan / ton, with the price trend stable, up 38.39% year on year; the average price of praseodymium was 645000 yuan / ton, with the price trend stable, down 2.27% year on year. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 270000 yuan / ton, down 3.91% since March, down 7.69% year on year; the price of dysprosium oxide is 1885000 yuan / ton, up 2.72% since March, up 41.73% year on year; the average price of praseodymium oxide is 320000 yuan / ton, stable in March, down 19.5% year on year; the average price of neodymium oxide is 293500 yuan / ton, up 0.34% in March, down 1.34% year on year. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy is 342500 yuan / ton, down 3.93%, down 9.27% year on year; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.85 million yuan / ton, up 2.21% since March, up 39.1% year on year.

In recent years, the price of heavy rare earth in China continues to rise, and dysprosium terbium leads the rare earth market. Myanmar’s unilateral ban on the export of rare earths has led to a sharp decline in the import of domestic heavy rare earths. In addition, some rare earth enterprises in the South have not yet resumed their work in an all-round way, the domestic supply of heavy rare earths has been reduced, the contradiction between the supply and demand of domestic heavy rare earths is sharp, and the market price of heavy rare earths has risen sharply. Due to the gradual resumption of the downstream magnetic material enterprises, the market demand has picked up, the inquiry is relatively positive, the actual transaction situation is acceptable, the quotation of the upstream large factories has been gradually increased, and the market price of medium heavy rare earth is rising.

The quantity of light rare earth in the first batch of rare earth mining indicators in 2020 has increased compared with that in 2019, the market trend of PR nd series products has declined slightly, the on-site supply is normal, the recent demand for light rare earth is general, and the market price has slightly dropped. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. In recent years, transportation has been limited to some extent, and the price trend of some rare earth products remains stable.

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high. Recently, the Ministry of natural resources and the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the issuance of the total amount control index (the first batch) for the exploitation of rare earth ores and tungsten ores in 2020, which specified that the total amount control index for the exploitation of the first batch of rare earth ores (rare earth oxide REO) in China is 66000 tons, and the total amount control index for the exploitation of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) is 52500 tons. The supply and demand pattern of domestic rare earth industry is expected to further improve, China’s domestic demand has improved, and the domestic market price of heavy rare earth is rising.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced, the supply of medium and heavy rare earth market will be tight, and the supply and demand pattern will change. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market will continue to rise, and the price trend of light rare earth market will be sluggish.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, as of March 12, the average price of n-butanol was 5283.33 yuan / ton (including tax). Compared with the beginning of this month (March 1), the current reference average price dropped 183 yuan / ton, or 3.44%.

2、 Market analysis

Products: from the beginning of March to the end of the week, the weak and stable operation of domestic n-butanol market is the main trend. On the 9th and 10th, affected by the collapse of crude oil market, the market mentality was bearish and the atmosphere of on-site wait-and-see was strong. In addition, the price of raw material propylene was weak. Since the middle of the week, the mainstream price of n-butanol has been weak and the price has declined slightly. At present, the market supply is relatively sufficient, and downstream customers just need to purchase Mainly, the manufacturer takes the initiative in shipping, but the downstream demand side is not improved much, the digestion of raw material inventory is mainly, the market new single negotiation is not much, and the overall transaction is limited. At present, South China’s n-butanol market is in consolidation operation. The market offers 5400-5450 yuan / ton, with small orders and some large orders at slightly lower prices. Shandong’s n-butanol market offers 5250-5400 yuan / ton, with poor high-end transactions. Some factories issued early orders, and there was not much negotiation on new orders; CNPC northeast n-butanol offered stable prices, with 5300 yuan / ton implemented. The Jilin chemical plant has been put into operation for 60% and Daqing plant is in normal operation; Qilu Petrochemical’s n-butanol products have been offered stably and executed at 5400 yuan / ton. Normal production and moderate inventory of n-butanol unit; the ex factory quotation of n-butanol of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. in North China is 5400 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last week; the ex factory price of n-butanol of Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 5300 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

Industrial chain: on March 11, the market price of propylene in Shandong Province fluctuated slightly. In March, the price of propylene in Shandong began to decline. On the first day, the price of some enterprises picked up slightly. On the second day, the price of the whole line rose slightly. On the third day and the fourth day, the price of most enterprises generally rose. On the fifth day, the price of some enterprises increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton. On the sixth day, the price of enterprises fluctuated up and down, but the range was small. On the tenth day, the price generally fell by 50-100 yuan / ton. Today, the price fluctuated slightly. The mainstream price About 50 yuan / ton will be reduced. At present, the market transaction is still 6500 ~ 6800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 6500 yuan / ton. Influenced by the OPEC meeting in the past few days, the international crude oil has plummeted continuously. Today, influenced by the economic stimulus plan and the US manufacturers’ spending cuts, the US crude oil jumped another 8%. Moreover, due to the low production and inventory of propylene plants, the market supply is not rich, so the previous propylene market fell less. Today, it is expected that the price of propylene will remain stable for a short time, and the future market will be affected by crude oil It has a great impact.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, at present, the n-butanol market is affected by the sharp drop in crude oil, the downstream demand is general, and the wait-and-see of the industry is gradually concentrated. The market is expected to be weak and stable for the time being.

1、 Market price trend of POM

Price curve of POM

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong this week is 4600 yuan / ton, which is stable.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4600 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4500 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4700 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. The quotation of POM continued to maintain stable operation, with general market demand.

Industry chain: upstream methanol situation, downstream recovery slow, methanol market slightly lower, domestic methanol market this week narrow range lower. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2002 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, it was 1980 yuan / ton, down 1.12% in the week.

3、 Future forecast

Polyoxymethylene analysts believe that: the upstream methanol market is weak, polyoxymethylene may be weak adjustment.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market fell by about 2.72% this week before the continuation of the previous trend, and the current quotation in Henan is about 2150 yuan / ton; the quotation in Shandong is about 2250-2400 yuan / ton; the quotation in Hebei is about 2400-2450 yuan / ton; the quotation in Shaanxi is about 2050 yuan / ton; the quotation in Jiangsu is about 2300-2350 yuan / ton; the quotation in Zhejiang is about 2450-25 yuan / ton About 50 yuan / ton; about 2450-2500 yuan / ton for delivery in South China.

2、 Cause analysis

Product: this week, domestic acetic acid still continued its weak operation in the early stage. Due to the high level of inventory in the industry, some enterprises bid for shipment, resulting in the continuous decline of acetic acid price, and the market is in a bad mood. However, with the acetic acid production enterprises successively entering the maintenance state, this situation is expected to turn around.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the trend of domestic methanol market is narrow and low, and some enterprises have adjusted their prices for many times, but the reduction is not large. At present, about 1980 yuan / ton; domestic acetate, vinyl acetate, acetic anhydride and other industries are in a weak and stable operation, with high shipping intention, slow recovery of demand in the terminal market, and short mentality; PTA market demand is gradually rising, and the supply and demand will be improved in the later stage, Short term PTA is improved or continues to rebound due to cost and demand.

International: the price of acetic acid in the North American market fell this week, currently at about $765 / T; the demand in the Asian acetic acid market was weak, with the price at about $275-340 / T; the supply and demand in the European acetic acid market was stable, and the current quotation was about 600 euro / T.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acetic acid analyst of business association, at present, the acetic acid production enterprises have successively issued maintenance plans or have entered the maintenance period, among which Jiangsu Thorpe 800000 T / a plant was overhauled on March 6, Yankuang 1.1 million T / a plant and Celanese 1.2 million T / a plant were overhauled around mid March, Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. reduced 50% of the load, Huayi Group overhauled in mid April, Henan Longyu short-term shutdown was recovering, and the enterprise was in overall operation The working rate will drop sharply, and the market speculation atmosphere is strong, but the current market inventory is still high, most of the enterprises are long-term and consumption inventory, the downstream demand recovers slowly, and the actual demand is still weak. It is expected that the acetic acid market will operate stably in a short time. In the long run, after the downstream production resumes in April, the acetic acid price will recover.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, this week’s domestic soda consolidation market mainly operated. The average domestic market price at the beginning of the week in East China was about 1553.33 yuan / ton, while the average market price at the end of the week was about 1583.33 yuan / ton, with the price rising by 1.93%. On March 5, the commodity index of light soda ash was 81.20, flat with yesterday, down 31.10% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 28.58% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic soda price is basically stable, and some manufacturers slightly adjust the factory price. The overall trend of soda ash in Central China is temporarily stable. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1300-1350 yuan / ton. The mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1400-1500 yuan / ton. Most of the downstream soda needs to be purchased. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more sorted and operated in the short term. The overall trend of soda ash in East China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1350-1550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1500-1700 yuan / ton. The downstream is mainly rigid and requires procurement. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more stable in the short term. In North China, the market price of soda ash in narrow range is about 1570-1600 yuan / ton for light soda ash and 1700-1800 yuan / ton for heavy soda ash. The actual transaction is relatively flexible. It is expected that the market price of soda ash in narrow range will be operated in the short term.

On the demand side: the domestic soda ash market as a whole keeps stable operation, but as the downstream transportation becomes more and more smooth, the demand side gradually recovers, and the enterprise inventory pressure gradually shifts. But the whole enterprise still faces inventory pressure. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the eighth week of 2020 (2.24-2.28), there are one rising commodity, two falling commodities and two rising and falling commodities. The main commodities that rose were light soda ash (0.21%); the main commodities that fell were PVC (- 3.80%) and calcium carbide (- 0.58%). This week’s average was – 0.83%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of business association, the domestic soda ash manufacturers have improved in recent years due to the improvement of transportation compared with the previous period, and the enterprise inventory has eased, but the overall pressure is still large. The downstream demand is relatively weak, and the soda ash market may remain weak and stable next week.

1、 Price trend

On March 4, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 4433 yuan / ton, down slightly from the same period last week, according to the data of business agency.

On March 4, GSE glycol futures ended down, with the main 2005 contract closing at 4354 yuan / ton, down 33 yuan / ton compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day.

On March 3, the price of large-scale single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 4295 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton from last weekend.

On March 3, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Asian market was US $510 / ton (CFR China), which was 7 US dollars / ton lower than the previous trading day.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of March 2, the glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 761900 tons, an increase of 76400 tons or 11.15% compared with last Thursday, and 1300300 tons or 20.63% compared with last Monday.

In terms of shipment, the recent shipment in the mainstream reservoir area of East China has been poor. On March 3, the shipment volume of glycol in a mainstream reservoir area of Zhangjiagang was 5400 tons; that in a mainstream reservoir area of Taicang was 15000 tons..

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 62%, and that of polyester downstream is about 66%, both of which are at a relatively low level.

In terms of units, the 300000 t / a ethylene glycol unit of new Hangzhou Energy Co., Ltd. was temporarily shut down for maintenance on March 2, and it is expected to be shut down for 4 to 5 days; the load of Xinjiang Dushanzi ethylene glycol unit is about 70%; the load of Guizhou Qianxi coal chemical Co., Ltd. is about 80%.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Early this morning, affected by the news of a fire in the naphtha cracking unit of Korea’s Lotte chemical Dashan plant, the price of glycol futures briefly surged higher, but due to the limited impact, it quickly fell back.

Recently, ethylene glycol inventory in East China’s main port has increased, and polyester production in the lower reaches has remained at a relatively low level, and delivery has been significantly lower than that in the same period last year. Although the spot and futures prices of ethylene glycol briefly recovered on Monday due to the rise of crude oil price, due to many adverse factors, it is expected that the market expectation will not be greatly improved in the near future.

Price trend

In February, the domestic propane market fell mainly, with a large range. At the beginning of the month, the average price of propane market was 4732.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 3737.5 yuan / ton, with a drop of 21.02% in the month, 8.11% lower than the same period last year.

Analysis of influencing factors

Propane prices fell this month, with a flat trading atmosphere. As of February 28, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Co., Ltd. have no propane in stock, so they will not offer. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 3650 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Company is 3770 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3700 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 3650 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3800 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of February, with the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the propane Market, which was supposed to go up, has fallen sharply this year (2020). The average ex factory price of propane Market (Shandong) before the festival (January 23) was about 4732.5 yuan / ton, and fell to about 3775 yuan / ton after the festival (February 3). The main reason is that affected by social public events, the Spring Festival holiday is extended, the downstream market is slow to return to work, the terminal demand is reduced, and the transportation is blocked, resulting in the overall transaction atmosphere of propane market is light. In order to stimulate the downstream market, the manufacturers kept making profits, but there was no obvious effect. The manufacturer’s inventory is gradually increasing, and the inventory pressure is increasing. Some manufacturers have to cut production or stop production to adapt to the market due to poor delivery.

The market remained depressed until a rebound in the propane Market occurred in the middle of the month. During this period, the broad rise of international crude oil has brought a certain boost to the market, and the rebound of civil gas has brought good results. At this time, with the gradual recovery of local transportation, the demand for inventory and replenishment in the downstream, the overall market transaction atmosphere has improved. The manufacturer’s shipment was relatively smooth, the inventory pressure was relieved, and the price continued to push up. On February 10, the average ex factory price of propane Market (Shandong) was about 3700 yuan / ton, and on February 21, it was about 4087.5 yuan / ton, with an increase of 10.47%.

Subsequently, the social public events are heating up. On February 26, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States continued the previous two trading days. The price continued to fall, with a large decline. The main contract was 48.73 yuan / barrel, down $1.17 (- 2.34%). Brent crude oil futures market price also continued to fall sharply, the main contract at 52.81 US dollars / barrel, down 1.45 US dollars (- 2.77%), especially WTI crude oil has fallen to a new one-year low. The sharp decline of international crude oil has depressed the mentality of the industry. The downstream market is mostly delisted, consuming inventory, and watching carefully. In addition, in March, CP expected to fall, the downstream market has not yet fully recovered, the terminal demand is limited, the overall atmosphere of the market turns to light again, and the price is weak.

Latest CP price

Saudi Aramco announced in March that the price of propane and butane were lowered. Propane fell to $430 / T, down $75 / T from last month, and butane to $480 / T, down $65 / T from last month. It is estimated that the c.i.f. cost of long-term propane is about 3810 yuan / ton, and butane is about 4196 yuan / ton.

Forecast for future market

The propane market fluctuated a lot in the whole February, but the market that was supposed to rise in seasonal demand fell. Affected by social public events, the Spring Festival holiday is extended, traffic and logistics are blocked, and the downstream return to work is slow, resulting in poor market demand for the whole month. And the international crude oil continued to fall sharply at the end of the month, and the CP fell in March, which continuously depressed the mentality of the industry, and the downstream delisted mainly. At present, the price is constantly reduced to cost price, and there is limited space for later decline. With the slow resumption of work, there is still a demand for replenishment in the downstream, and it is expected that propane will stop falling in the later period.

1、 Price trend

Pure benzene continued to fall this month, down 6.76% in the month, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list. On February 1, the listing price of pure benzene was 5650-5800 yuan / ton, and on February 28, the listing price of pure benzene was 5100-5500 yuan / ton. This month, the highest price of pure benzene appeared on February 1, and the highest price was 5650-5800 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Crude oil: in February, the overall international oil price fell sharply. As of February 28, WTI oil price was 13.04% lower than last month, Brent oil price was 10.91% lower than last month.

2. Product: affected by social and public events, crude oil and benzene in outer plate decreased significantly. Domestic: the downstream of pure benzene has low starting load and limited demand; the transportation is relatively limited and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is not active.

3. Downstream: styrene fell in shock this month, with the highest price of 7233.33 yuan / ton, the lowest price of 6566.67 yuan / ton, and the maximum price difference of 666.66 yuan / ton, a monthly drop of 7.37%.

In February, the aniline plant had a lot of parking and maintenance, and the supply was tight. Overall, it rose by 2.56% compared with the end of last month.

3、 Future forecast

1. Crude oil: in the later stage, the oil price mainly focuses on the progress of social public event control and OPEC’s promotion of production reduction.

2. Domestic and foreign markets: the Northeast large-scale refineries have been restarted, the later load will gradually increase, the supply pressure will further increase, and the short-term market is difficult to improve significantly.

Overall, the short-term pure benzene operation is still weak. Market concern downstream resumption.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell in February. As of February 29, the average price of acetic anhydride enterprises was 4725.00 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton, or 1.05% compared with 4775.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 25.79% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product analysis:

In February, acetic anhydride enterprises started to work successively, Yankuang acetic anhydride equipment started to work normally, Hualu Hengsheng acetic anhydride equipment started to work normally, Guangxi Jinyuan acetic anhydride equipment resumed production, Henan ronghua chemical acetic anhydride equipment started to work, but the logistics and transportation were still limited, and it was difficult to get out of the warehouse; downstream enterprises had general purchasing enthusiasm, and orders were sporadically traded. The factory quotation in North China was about 4600-4800 yuan / ton, which was actually successful The price is about 4500 yuan / ton. Acetic anhydride manufacturers have inventory sales, overall acetic anhydride market is bad, acetic anhydride drop pressure.

Industry chain factor analysis:

In February, the price of acetic acid fell sharply, the start-up of acetic acid enterprises gradually recovered, the demand for acetic acid was low, the acetic acid market was cold running, the stock of acetic acid was overstocked, the price of acetic acid fell under great pressure, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, which was bad for the market of acetic anhydride in the future.

In February, the price of methanol fell sharply, the delivery of methanol enterprises gradually recovered, the number of transport vehicles gradually increased, and the methanol market gradually recovered. However, the downstream construction of methanol was generally started, the overall demand for methanol was general, and the market for acetic anhydride was less negative, while the market for acetic anhydride was more negative.

3、 Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data of the business association, in February, acetic anhydride enterprises began to work one after another, and their production gradually recovered. The operating rate of acetic anhydride enterprises increased, the downstream demand was general, the inventory of acetic anhydride enterprises was overstocked, and the price of acetic anhydride was under great pressure. In terms of cost, the price of acetic acid fell sharply, which was bad for acetic anhydride market, while the price of methanol fell in shock. The cost of acetic anhydride fell sharply, and the market of acetic anhydride was bad. Due to the serious transportation constraints, there are few transactions in the acetic anhydride market, and the enthusiasm of enterprises for quotation is not high. The main reason is to maintain the stability of the quotation. The actual transaction price has declined significantly, and the overall acetic anhydride market is weak. As for the future market, the stock backlog of acetic anhydride enterprises has increased, the demand for acetic anhydride has not increased significantly, and the pressure of acetic anhydride decline is greater, and it is expected that acetic anhydride will fall in the future market.