1、 Price trend
On March 4, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 4433 yuan / ton, down slightly from the same period last week, according to the data of business agency.
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On March 4, GSE glycol futures ended down, with the main 2005 contract closing at 4354 yuan / ton, down 33 yuan / ton compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day.
On March 3, the price of large-scale single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 4295 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton from last weekend.
On March 3, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Asian market was US $510 / ton (CFR China), which was 7 US dollars / ton lower than the previous trading day.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
As of March 2, the glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 761900 tons, an increase of 76400 tons or 11.15% compared with last Thursday, and 1300300 tons or 20.63% compared with last Monday.
In terms of shipment, the recent shipment in the mainstream reservoir area of East China has been poor. On March 3, the shipment volume of glycol in a mainstream reservoir area of Zhangjiagang was 5400 tons; that in a mainstream reservoir area of Taicang was 15000 tons..
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At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 62%, and that of polyester downstream is about 66%, both of which are at a relatively low level.
In terms of units, the 300000 t / a ethylene glycol unit of new Hangzhou Energy Co., Ltd. was temporarily shut down for maintenance on March 2, and it is expected to be shut down for 4 to 5 days; the load of Xinjiang Dushanzi ethylene glycol unit is about 70%; the load of Guizhou Qianxi coal chemical Co., Ltd. is about 80%.
3、 Analysis and prediction
Early this morning, affected by the news of a fire in the naphtha cracking unit of Korea’s Lotte chemical Dashan plant, the price of glycol futures briefly surged higher, but due to the limited impact, it quickly fell back.
Recently, ethylene glycol inventory in East China’s main port has increased, and polyester production in the lower reaches has remained at a relatively low level, and delivery has been significantly lower than that in the same period last year. Although the spot and futures prices of ethylene glycol briefly recovered on Monday due to the rise of crude oil price, due to many adverse factors, it is expected that the market expectation will not be greatly improved in the near future.
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