This week’s consolidation of soda ash market dominated (3.2-3.6)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, this week’s domestic soda consolidation market mainly operated. The average domestic market price at the beginning of the week in East China was about 1553.33 yuan / ton, while the average market price at the end of the week was about 1583.33 yuan / ton, with the price rising by 1.93%. On March 5, the commodity index of light soda ash was 81.20, flat with yesterday, down 31.10% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 28.58% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Product: this week, the domestic soda price is basically stable, and some manufacturers slightly adjust the factory price. The overall trend of soda ash in Central China is temporarily stable. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1300-1350 yuan / ton. The mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1400-1500 yuan / ton. Most of the downstream soda needs to be purchased. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more sorted and operated in the short term. The overall trend of soda ash in East China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1350-1550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1500-1700 yuan / ton. The downstream is mainly rigid and requires procurement. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more stable in the short term. In North China, the market price of soda ash in narrow range is about 1570-1600 yuan / ton for light soda ash and 1700-1800 yuan / ton for heavy soda ash. The actual transaction is relatively flexible. It is expected that the market price of soda ash in narrow range will be operated in the short term.

 

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On the demand side: the domestic soda ash market as a whole keeps stable operation, but as the downstream transportation becomes more and more smooth, the demand side gradually recovers, and the enterprise inventory pressure gradually shifts. But the whole enterprise still faces inventory pressure. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the eighth week of 2020 (2.24-2.28), there are one rising commodity, two falling commodities and two rising and falling commodities. The main commodities that rose were light soda ash (0.21%); the main commodities that fell were PVC (- 3.80%) and calcium carbide (- 0.58%). This week’s average was – 0.83%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the soda ash analyst of business association, the domestic soda ash manufacturers have improved in recent years due to the improvement of transportation compared with the previous period, and the enterprise inventory has eased, but the overall pressure is still large. The downstream demand is relatively weak, and the soda ash market may remain weak and stable next week.

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