1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, on April 10, according to the average comprehensive quotation of sample enterprises, at present, the mainstream reference quotation of domestic n-propanol containing packaging is around 9500-10200 yuan / ton, and the reference price of bulk water is around 8500-9000 yuan / ton, which is basically stable with the beginning of April.

2、 Market analysis

Products: since the beginning of April, the domestic market of n-propanol has remained weak and stable. Due to the impact of foreign public health events, the production of foreign n-propanol has been blocked. At present, domestic dealers are looking forward to the increase of the export of n-propanol. At present, Nanjing area: the manufacturer Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. currently, the unit is in normal operation, and the ex factory price of n-propanol is mainly stable. The price of the participating dealers is around 8500 yuan / ton. The quotation of some dealers in Nanjing area has been increased, with the increase range ranging from 100-500 yuan / ton. Shandong area: the price of n-propanol is stable temporarily, the bulk water is around 8500-9000 yuan / ton, and the barrel price is around 10000-10200 yuan / ton. Shanghai: the price of dealers in Shanghai is stable temporarily. The price of imported n-propanol is around 11000-12000 yuan / ton, and the price of low-end is around 10500 yuan / ton. In view of the dealer’s reservation on the price, the price is not easy to monitor, leading to specific negotiations or differences, and there are also differences in each region, with single negotiation as the main part.

Industrial chain: on April 9, the market price of propylene in Shandong Province rose steadily. Last month, the price of propylene in Shandong Province fell in shock. At the end of the month, it fell sharply again, with a monthly decline of more than 15%. On the first day, the price continued to decline by 100-200 yuan / ton. On the second day, it still declined by 50 yuan / ton. On the third day, the price of some enterprises increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. After the Qing Dynasty, the price of propylene increased steadily. On the seventh day, the price began to rise by 100 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction has risen to 5700-5800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 5700 yuan / ton. Affected by the international situation, the international crude oil market last month repeatedly reported new lows, but the market continued to rise after a sharp fluctuation on the 2nd. Now, many countries may introduce production reduction policies to improve the crude oil market and increase the propylene price. In addition, PP futures rose significantly, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good. It is expected that propylene prices will continue to rise in recent days.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of business agency, the supply and demand of n-propanol in the domestic market is relatively stable, and it is expected that the market will mainly operate stably in the short term.

OPEC + may increase the scale of production reduction, and gasoline demand in the United States falls to the level of the 1980s

Yesterday’s EIA data showed that US crude oil and gasoline had accumulated a large amount of inventory. After the report, crude oil fell. However, a dozen minutes before the closing of the market, Algeria’s energy minister said that the OPEC + emergency meeting would discuss “large-scale production reduction, which may reach 10 million barrels per day, and the WTI oil price rose nearly $2.50 in a straight line. EIA report shows that crude oil increased by 15.18 million barrels, gasoline increased by 10.5 million barrels, heating oil increased by 40000 barrels, and crude oil production in the United States decreased by 600000 barrels / day last week. Refinery operating rates fell to an all-time low of 76%, with gasoline demand at its lowest weekly rate since 1980. Be alert to the surging and falling market after OPEC + meeting. At present, the market has reduced the global production by 10-15 million barrels / day, which is good for price in. In the short term, it is possible to make a short-term upward breakthrough, but it is difficult to break through the resistance near wti30, so it is necessary to be alert to the upward trend in the short term. The macro market began to speculate that there was a turning point in the US epidemic, with US stocks up more than 3%.

Industry highlights: 1. The data released by EIA shows that the growth rate of commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves in the United States was higher than expected in the week ended April 3, refined oil storage basically met expectations, while gasoline inventory growth was higher than expected. For the week ended April 3, EIA crude oil inventory changes actually reported an increase of 15.177 million barrels, with an expected increase of 9.679 million barrels, and a previous increase of 13.833 million barrels. Gasoline inventory actually increased by 10.497 million barrels, expected to increase by 5.821 million barrels, with the previous value increasing by 7.524 million barrels; refined oil inventory actually increased by 476000 barrels, expected to increase by 788000 barrels, with the previous value decreasing by 2.194 million barrels. US domestic crude oil production fell by 600000 barrels a day to 12.4 million barrels a day last week. US crude oil exports fell 322000 B / D to 2.833 million B / d last week, while commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves imported 5.874 million B / d last week, down 173 thousand B / D from the previous week. Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 15.177 million barrels to 484.4 million barrels, an increase of 3.2%.

2. Saudi Aramco used oil tankers to store crude oil as production increased to a record 12 million barrels per day. India began to replenish strategic oil reserves, which also helped stabilize the crude oil market. According to officials familiar with the matter, after the oil price plummeted, the Indian government asked state-owned refineries to take advantage of the falling oil price to purchase 15 million barrels of crude oil as strategic reserves. The purchase also meets the goal of stabilizing the global oil market and supporting demand, two officials said. Officials also revealed that the Indian government may require state-owned refiners to purchase crude oil in advance from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, and that the Ministry of finance of India has approved the funding application of the Ministry of oil.

3. Tass reported that Russia said it was ready to cut production by 1.6 million barrels per day. Near the end of the day, it was reported that 48 members of the US House of Representatives (435 representatives) jointly wrote to the crown prince of Saudi Arabia before the OPEC + + meeting, saying that failure to resolve the energy crisis would jeopardize the economic and military cooperation between the US and Saudi Arabia. The news triggered a rapid $3 / barrel rally from intraday lows.

4. OPEC + held a video conference at 4 p.m. Vienna time on April 9; G20 energy ministers held a video conference at 3 p.m. Riyadh time on April 10.

1. Trade name: silicon metal (441#)

2. Latest price (April 7, 2020): 11241.67 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 10600-10800 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 11100-11200 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 11000-11100 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 11600-11800 yuan / ton, in Tianjin port is 11400-11600 yuan / ton, in Huangpu port is 11300-11400 yuan / ton 。

3. Analysis points:

On the domestic side, the supply side is still low, but it is expected to strengthen the resumption of production in Yunnan, and the domestic downstream organosilicon monomer and aluminum alloy are still not expected due to the end of the industrial chain.

4. Future forecast: it is expected that the short-term operation of silicon metal will be weak.

1、 Price trend

On April 3, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 3500 yuan / ton, down 3.67% from last Friday, according to the data of business agency.

On April 3, the price of large single can of ethylene glycol in East China was 3380 yuan / ton, up 490 yuan / ton or 16.96% from Monday.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of April 2, the glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 1.1206 million tons, an increase of 66100 tons or 6.27% compared with last Thursday, and an increase of 76800 tons or 7.36% compared with this Monday, continuing to accumulate.

In terms of shipment, this week, the main port of Zhangjiagang delivered about 5100 tons per day, while Taicang delivered about 3800 tons per day to the two warehouses, which remained depressed.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 66%, and that of polyester downstream is about 79%, which is lower than that of last week.

In terms of units, Yangmei group Pingding chemical glycol unit has been shut down for maintenance, with uncertain start-up time; Inner Mongolia Yigao coal glycol unit is expected to be shut down for maintenance for one month; Yongjin chemical glycol unit and shut down for maintenance at the end of March.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Glycol prices continued to fall in the first few days of this week due to poor downstream construction. Thursday’s sharp rebound in international oil prices drove chemicals up sharply in the day, and the cost of glycol was also supported, which also boosted market sentiment.

At present, the profit loss of coal to glycol is large, and the profit of naphtha is near the profit loss line. In the later stage, the price of glycol needs to focus on the trend of crude oil.

1、 Price trend

In early March, monoammonium phosphate rose continuously, with a maximum increase of 7.02%, and later prices began to fall. On March 1, the average ex factory price of domestic powdered monoammonium was 1993 yuan / ton, and on March 31, the average ex factory price of domestic powdered monoammonium was 2083 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 4.52%. On March 31, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 69.73, unchanged from yesterday, down 30.85% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 12.30% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: in the first ten days of March, the fertilizer market is in the peak season of sales. The prices of raw sulfur and liquid ammonia continue to rise, and the demand in the downstream is increasing. Multiple advantages lead to the price of monoammonium phosphate rising. In the last ten days of March, due to the large supply and reduced demand, the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises had sufficient stock and weakened demand. The price of monoammonium phosphate began to fall after the market rose in the early stage. At present, 55% of powdered ammonium in Hubei Province has a factory quotation of 1900-2100 yuan / ton, and 60% of mainstream powdered ammonium has a factory quotation of 2150-2250 yuan / ton. The market in Henan province maintains stable operation. The ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is 1900-2100 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 58% powdered ammonium is 2050-2150 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1900-2100 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is 1900-2100 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in March, the overall operation of domestic phosphorus ore market was basically restored, the recovery of Guizhou phosphorus ore market was relatively fast, and the operation rate in Yunnan was still low. At the beginning of the month, some phosphate ore enterprises in Guizhou raised their initial high-end phosphate ore market quotation by 20-30 yuan / ton. By the middle of March, foreign public events occurred, the market logistics and transportation were affected to a small extent, the export of downstream end products of phosphate rock was limited, new orders were reduced, and the overall price of phosphate rock market fluctuated down slightly, with a decrease range of 10-25 yuan / ton. In March, Hubei phosphate fertilizer manufacturers started one after another, and the supply of phosphate fertilizer increased. The spring ploughing of fertilizer improved the demand for raw sulfur and effectively boosted the overall confidence of the market. In addition to the price stabilization of individual refineries, refineries in other regions have increased their prices according to their own shipping conditions. In the later stage, the domestic sulfur market was stagnant, the downstream market entry enthusiasm was not high, the actual single information was limited, and most of the procurement was on demand and wait-and-see. In March, the trend of compound fertilizer stabilized first and rose in the middle, and in the later period, the favorable factors weakened and the market remained stable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 3 kinds of rising commodities, 2 kinds of falling commodities and 0 kinds of rising and falling commodities in the price list of phosphorus chemical industry in March 2020. The main commodities that rose were monoammonium phosphate (4.52%), diammonium phosphate (1.14%), phosphate rock (0.83%); the main commodities that fell were yellow phosphorus (- 6.78%), phosphoric acid (- 0.62%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 0.18%.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of monoammonium phosphate of business association, due to the strong demand for phosphate fertilizer in the peak season of spring ploughing in March, the raw material sulfur also increased significantly. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is large, and the price of monoammonium phosphate is high. With the weakening of favorable factors, the price was stable and down in the later period. It is expected that monoammonium phosphate market will remain stable in April.

According to the price trend chart of fluorite, it is clear that the price trend of fluorite has fallen. According to statistics, as of April 1, the average price of domestic fluorite is 3155.56 yuan / ton, and the price trend of domestic fluorite has fallen. According to statistics, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2900-3100 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 3000-3200 yuan / ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 3000-3200 yuan / ton, The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the price trend of fluorite in China has declined. First, with the promotion of resumption of construction and production by domestic policies, domestic fluorite enterprises have started to work gradually, the operation rate of fluorite has increased, and the operation of domestic mines and flotation units has increased, which has increased the spot supply of fluorite in the site, sufficient supply of goods in the site, and the price of fluorite in China has fallen. In addition, with the warming of the temperature, the northern fluorite manufacturers began to work gradually, the domestic supply of fluorite increased, and the price trend of fluorite in the field fell. Third, in the near future, the price of hydrofluoric acid and the market of refrigerants in the downstream are weak, which has a certain negative impact on the domestic fluorite market, and the price of fluorite in China has dropped. Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid Market and refrigerant industry has declined, and it is expected that fluorite prices will continue to decline in the later period.

Fluorite prices gradually fell, and hydrofluoric acid market prices fell.

As of the first day, the average price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 10900 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market has fallen back. The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in Fujian is 9500-10500 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 10000-11000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangxi is 9500-11000 yuan / ton, that in Inner Mongolia is 9500-10500 yuan / ton, and that in hydrofluoric acid market is well supplied, The market price fell sharply.

In the near future, the operation rate of hydrofluoric acid in China is about 60%. The enterprises report that the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the site is sufficient at present, but the downstream market is not good, and the demand for hydrofluoric acid market is weak. In the near future, due to the price drop in the downstream market, and the price of fluorite in the upstream, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has dropped sharply. In the near future, most of the manufacturers report that the loss of hydrofluoric acid is serious, Affected by the bad news, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market fell sharply. In the near future, the trading price of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has fallen. In the near future, the world has been seriously affected by health events. The import and export industry has been seriously impacted. The market of the refrigerant industry has declined. The domestic operating rate of R22 is relatively low. The domestic market price of R22 has fallen. The production unit of the manufacturer is still at a low level. The supply capacity of the market is normal. The downstream air conditioning manufacturers are not active in purchasing , the demand has decreased, and the price mainstream of domestic large enterprises has dropped to 15500-18000 yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market is temporarily stable, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the production of the automobile industry has declined, and the demand for R134a has weakened. At present, the supply of R134a in the market is normal, the price trend remains low, the downstream market has declined, and the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid has fallen sharply. In addition, the supply of fluorite in the north is gradually increasing. It is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the later period will be lower It will continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the market price of domestic isomeric xylene fell sharply this week. As of Friday, the average domestic price was about 3410 yuan / ton, down 10.97% on last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Products: The overseas epidemic continues to spread, worried about the shrinking demand for crude oil due to the economic recession, and Saudi Arabia and Russia have no sign of resuming production reduction negotiations. Affected by this, the international crude oil price continues to fall sharply this week, as well as the price of xylene in the South Korean market, the main source of imports. Although domestic enterprises have entered the resumption period, the market demand has gradually improved, but the price of domestic isomeric xylene still remains However, following the decline, the current mainstream price in East China is around 3800 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the international oil price remained wide and volatile after the sharp fall at the beginning of this week. As of Friday, Brent futures fell 7.21%, Brent futures fell 4.12%, WTI futures fell 0.77% and Dubai futures fell 10.45%.

Downstream, in PX market, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises this week is about 5000 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the outside market is about 473 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 491 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that PX market price will maintain a downward trend next week. In terms of PTA market, the domestic PTA spot market price is about 3300 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 439 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PTA price will remain weak next week. In the ox market, Sinopec’s offer of ortho benzene fell, with the price at 4300 yuan / ton. The external price of ortho benzene is about 485 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea. It is expected that the trend of ortho benzene’s decline will be maintained next week.

3、 Future forecast

According to xylene analyst of business and chemical branch, we will continue to focus on the news of OPEC + production reduction agreement next week, worries about global economic recession due to the continuous spread of overseas epidemic, international crude oil trend and the progress of downstream enterprises’ resumption of work. On the whole, it is expected that xylene prices in the international crude oil market and South Korean market will continue to fluctuate broadly next week, and xylene prices in the domestic market may follow the shocks next week.