1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of business agency, the average price of n-butanol as of May 15 was 5483 yuan / ton (including tax), up 316 yuan / ton or 6.4% compared with the reference price of 5100 yuan / ton on May 8 last Friday.

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Product: this week, the mainstream price of domestic n-butanol market continued to rise. At present, the market inventory is low, the downstream purchasing atmosphere is good, the replenishment is active, the inventory of n-butanol factory is generally low, and the price continues to rise driven by the cost. As of May 15, the ex factory quotation of Shandong lihuayi n-butanol is 5450 yuan / ton, which is increased by 250 yuan / ton in a week. At present, Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is under normal operation with tight n-butanol inventory. The ex factory quotation is 5500 yuan / ton, up 400 yuan / ton in a week; Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. in North China is 5500 yuan / ton, up 400 yuan / ton in a week; and in East China is 5750 yuan / ton.

 

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Industrial chain: on May 15, the market price of propylene in Shandong Province kept rising. Last month, the price of propylene in Shandong Province rose sharply and fell sharply, and then it held steady again, and the market was stable. During the May 1st period, the price of propylene slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. On the 6th, the price went up by 100 yuan / ton again. On the 7th, 8th and 9th, the price went up by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 10th, some enterprises went up by 50 yuan / ton continuously. On the 11th, they went up by 50 yuan / ton again. On the 12th, they went up by 100-200 yuan / ton obviously. On the 13th, they went up by 100-200 yuan / ton continuously. On the 14th, they went up by 50-100 yuan / ton again. Today, they are still up by 50-100 yuan / ton. Now, the market The turnover is between 6600-6800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is around 6600 yuan / ton.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to analysts of n-butanol, the purchasing atmosphere in the downstream of n-butanol is warming up, and it is expected that the market of n-butanol will be stable and strong in the short term.

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1、 Price trend:

 

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic ABS market rose in the first half of May, and the spot market price rose. As of Thursday, May 14, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was eleven thousand one hundred and fifty About yuan / ton, compared with the average price at the beginning of the month 4.69% Increase.

 

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2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

 

Industry chain: in all upstream aspects of ABS, styrene rose last month driven by the rising market of crude oil and chemical industry. However, public health events led to increased panic in Europe and the United States, and the market fell. On the whole, the market support point is not stable. Since May, styrene has continued its positive trend, but in the near future, there is a surplus of spot circulation, and businesses have begun to let profits go. Downstream demand remained at a general level, and it is expected that styrene will be mainly treated by shock finishing;

 

Recently, the market trend of acrylonitrile rebounded. At the end of last month, the price of acrylonitrile stabilized, and some enterprises in the site also planned to reduce production to ease the supply pressure. At present, acrylonitrile manufacturers are not willing to ship at a low price, and there is a strong market in the field. However, at present, the mentality of the buyer and the seller is still wait-and-see;

 

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Domestic butadiene market was slightly sorted out, short-term domestic supplier information guidance was limited, and some businesses focused on external market information guidance. I heard that it is difficult to find the low price of the near ocean cargo, which will give some support to the mentality of domestic merchants. The northern middlemen mainly offer stable prices. Downstream inventory is relatively abundant and market trading is limited. Some merchants in East China wait and see the trend of the external market, and the market offer is relatively strong. The short-term domestic butadiene market is mainly on the waiting list;

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

Business analysts think: the ABS market rose in early May, and some brand prices rose. The recent trend of the three upstream materials in terms of cost side is acceptable, with general support for cost side. At present, the spot supply of ABS has shrunk compared with the previous one, and there is resistance to high price goods in the downstream. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue to be adjusted in a narrow range in the near future.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of business association, as of May 12, based on the quotation of several sample enterprises, at present, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market is around 6200 yuan / ton, which is up by 400 yuan / ton or 7.4% compared with the average market price of 5800 yuan / ton before Labor Day (April 30).

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Products: in May, due to the stock up of some downstream products before labor day, the delivery of butanone manufacturers before labor day is relatively smooth, and the overall warehouse is running at a lower level. After labor day, affected by the low stock and the skyrocketing market of related substitutes acetone, some domestic downstream companies purchase butanone as their substitutes, and some downstream companies have the demand for replenishment, which is driven by multiple advantages, so the delivery of manufacturers is smooth and the transaction is successful As a result, the demand for butanone rose after the festival. The market showed the most significant increase in the 6-7 days. According to the data monitoring on the 7-7 day, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market has increased to around 6233 yuan / ton, which is about 300-400 yuan / ton higher than that before the festival. However, the end product market has not improved significantly and the news of international crude oil falling over the weekend has not supported the market well enough. Since the 8th, the butanone market has not gained enough momentum and trading volume has been significantly reduced. Although the factory’s inventory pressure is not large, small and medium-sized traders said that the inquiry atmosphere at the end of the week has obviously cooled down and the factory continues to raise prices. Up to the 12th, South China Area: the factory reference of butanone water purification is around 6300 yuan / ton; East China: the factory reference of butanone water purification is around 6100-6200 yuan / ton; North China: the factory reference of butanone water purification is around 5800-5900 yuan / ton; currently, the overall domestic butanone market is based on the temporary stable consolidation trend.

 

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Industry chain: after Labor Day in May, crude oil is the main player, and there is a demand for replenishment in the downstream of liquefied gas civil market after the festival. The market entry is more active, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the inventory is free of pressure, and the overall price is wide upward. The terminal market recovered in an all-round way, with general demand and stable price last weekend. On Monday (May 11), after the downward trend of the market, the overall market is stable. As of the 12th, the price of liquefied gas market in Shandong Province is stable. The mainstream price is about 2900-3100 yuan / ton, the market transaction is normal, and the actual transaction price is the main price; the market price of liquefied gas in East China is reduced. The mainstream price is about 2900 yuan / ton, and the market turnover is normal; the market price of liquefied gas in North China is stable. The mainstream price is around 2800-2850 yuan / ton, and the market transaction is normal.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business agency, the inquiry atmosphere in the domestic butanone market has basically returned to calm, and the market volume may be reduced. The export volume of foreign public events to butanone may continue to decrease, and the demand of domestic downstream is difficult to provide strong support for butanone. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic butanone market will operate weakly and stably in recent days, and small drop may not be ruled out.

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1、 Trend analysis

 

On May 11, spot copper offered 44176.67 yuan / ton, up 1.26% from the previous trading day, down 9.9% from the beginning of the year, and down 7.89% year on year. LME copper rose 0.48% to $5243.5 in three-month contract volatility. Shanghai copper main contract hit 43950 yuan in the morning and then fell back to 43500 yuan, down 0.02%.

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

In the near future, spot copper continues to rebound, and the impact of the epidemic on Chile is mainly concentrated in the second quarter. Although Peru’s mining industry will start to resume operation, it is still difficult for these major copper producing countries to restore production capacity on a large scale, while the consumer market is gradually recovering, refined copper goes to storage, wires and cables start to maintain a high level, and infrastructure driven consumption peak season effect is obvious Prices continue to rise.

 

3、 Future prospects

 

Based on the above situation, the copper analyst of non ferrous branch of business agency thinks that: copper supply is affected, the recovery of downstream demand is good for copper price, and more attention is paid to overseas resumption of work. It is expected that copper price is still subject to strong shocks.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the price of pure benzene on May 3 was 2750-3400 yuan / ton (average price: 2960 yuan / ton); on Saturday (May 9), the price of pure benzene was 3100-3550 yuan / ton (average price: 3270 yuan / ton), up 10.47% from last week.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

1. Product: the focus of domestic pure benzene market is stronger this week, boosted by the rise of crude oil and external market. Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene twice this week, with a total increase of 350 yuan / ton to 3100 yuan / ton. The listing price of pure benzene on Wednesday was 2750-3400 yuan / ton (average price 2960 yuan / ton); the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene on Wednesday (6th) was increased by 200 yuan / ton, and the listing price of domestic pure benzene was increased by 2950-3500 yuan / ton (average price 3120 yuan / ton); the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene on Saturday (9th) was increased by 150 yuan / ton, and the listing price of domestic pure benzene was increased by 3100-3500 yuan / ton (average price 3270 yuan / ton).

 

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3. Outside market: in the first week after the festival, the price of the outside market rose, boosted by crude oil. Singapore’s Vesak festival was held on the 7th, and pure benzene in Asia was closed for the first time. This Friday (May 8), South Korea imported 365 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 41.33 US dollars / ton, up 12.77% from April 30; East China imported 385 US dollars / ton of pure benzene, up 44 US dollars / ton, up 12.9% from April 30.

 

3. Crude oil: in May, countries implemented production reduction agreements to push forward production reduction and achieved certain results. In addition, with the relaxation of blockade measures in many countries, the demand for refined oil has recovered. In the first week after the festival, international crude oil futures rose sharply. However, the market is still affected by the increase of crude oil inventory and the shortage of inventory. Brent rose $5.735, or 29.62%, this week from May 1, while WTI rose $3.88, or 17.41%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 62.41% and WTI by 56.94%.

 

4. Downstream industry: styrene rose and fell this week. In the early stage, driven by crude oil and futures, spot prices rose; in the later stage, due to limited support, prices fell. The price of styrene in Shandong on Saturday was 5300 yuan / ton, up 3.92% from last week. The highest price this week is on Thursday, May 7, at 5450 yuan / ton.

 

During the festival, the price of aniline enterprises decreased. On Friday, the price in Shandong was 4600-4690 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 4600-4820 yuan / ton, down 4.17% per week.

 

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3、 Future forecast

 

1. Crude oil: Good: continuous production reduction, crude oil inventory or slow decline; easing blockade measures to boost crude oil demand. Negative: public health events still affect demand and significantly restrict oil prices.

 

2. In terms of market: downstream enterprises are in a profit-making state as a whole, the plant operation rate is improved, and the demand for pure benzene is increased to a certain extent. At present, crude oil and outer plate have a good prospect, providing support for pure benzene.

 

It is expected that the pure benzene deposit will continue to rise next week.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of calcium carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on May 8 was 5680 yuan / ton, up 4.32% from the beginning of the month, down 19.49% from the same period last year. On May 7, the PVC commodity index was 71.28, up 1.81 points from yesterday, down 28.72% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 22.33% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

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Products: after the May Day holiday, the decline of domestic PVC market has come to an end. We are pleased to welcome the rise. In the three days after the holiday, we realized three consecutive rises, with an increase of more than 200 yuan, or 4.32%. In May, with the improvement of foreign economy and the gradual recovery of demand, the rebound of international oil price has driven the raw material market and the rise of PVC futures, the spot price of PVC has risen continuously. After the May 1st Labor Day holiday, the restrictions on high-speed transportation of dangerous chemicals were lifted, short-term stock replenishment occurred in the downstream, PVC enterprises generally increased, the focus of transactions continued to move up, the overall trading atmosphere of the market improved, and the confidence of the operators increased. At present, some enterprises have entered the stage of maintenance, with tight supply, favorable supply side, and higher downstream demand. With multiple favorable supports, PVC market is gradually recovering with good expectations. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of May 8, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is around 5450-5750 yuan / ton.

 

Futures: pvcv2009 contract opened at a high volatility on July 7, closing at 5665 yuan / ton, compared with – 15 yuan on the previous trading day; trading volume was 152303, + 396; positions were 190288, + 3803, base difference was 35 yuan, + 165 yuan; 9-1 price difference was 80 yuan, + 35 yuan.

 

Import and export: in March, the import volume of domestic PVC was 57800 tons, an increase of 97.95% month on month compared with February, and a decrease of 13.69% year on year. In March, the export volume of domestic PVC was 84700 tons, a sharp increase of 185.19% on February and a year-on-year increase of 21.87%.

 

Industry chain: on May 5, WTI crude oil futures market price in the United States rose sharply, and the settlement price of main contracts was 24.56 yuan / barrel, up 4.17 US dollars or 20.5%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of major contracts at $30.97/barrel, up $3.77 or 13.87%. Before and after the May Day holiday, the international crude oil futures market went out of the market of “five linked suns”. According to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI rose by 60% from April 29 to May 5. The rebound of crude oil is mainly due to the market expectation of restarting economy in many countries in Europe and the United States, as well as the positive production reduction of oil producing countries. As for calcium carbide, the ex factory price of Northwest calcium carbide rose slightly on May 8. The ex factory price in Shaanxi is about 2200-2350 yuan / ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable; the ex factory price in Qinghai is about 2300 yuan / ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable; the ex factory price in Inner Mongolia is about 2300 yuan / ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agencies, on May 7, 2020, there are five commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in rubber and plastic plate, including one commodity with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 5.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities are PA6 (5.47%), PVC (2.60%) and natural rubber (0.54%). There are two kinds of commodities with a month on month decline. The first two products with a month on month decline are PP (fiber) (- 1.18%) and PA66 (- 1.01%). The average price of this day is 0.43%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

PVC analysts of the business club believe that: at present, the supply of PVC spot market is tight, the terminal demand is gradually restored, the market transaction atmosphere is good, the trading center is constantly moving up, coupled with the rebound of international oil price, the rise of PVC futures and other multiple interest, the spot price is rising continuously, and it is expected that PVC will continue to rise in the short term.

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1、 Price trend

 

In April 2020, the coke market fell slightly. The main market price in Shanxi Province was 1563.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 1513.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 3.20%.

 

On April 30, the coke commodity index was 79.44, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.17% from 135.04 (2018-09-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 129.26% from 34.65, the lowest point on March 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

 

2、 Trend analysis

 

Price: according to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic coke market is stable this week. As of Friday, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shanghai is 1680 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1740 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Xuzhou is 1650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1720 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Weifang, Shandong is 1640 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1700 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 154 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1700 yuan / ton The mainstream price of primary metallurgical coke is 1590 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province is 1580 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1640 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shenyang, Liaoning Province is 1610 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1670 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Pingdingshan, Henan Province is 1700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1800 yuan / ton; Hebei Province The mainstream price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke is 1630 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1680 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of Tianjin secondary metallurgical coke is 1650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1750 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market in Sichuan is 1780 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Liupanshui coke market in Guizhou is 1920 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of Ordos coke market The mainstream price of grade two metallurgical coke is 1300 yuan / ton. About 1900 yuan / ton of primary metallurgical coke, 1800 yuan / ton of quasi primary metallurgical coke and 1700 yuan / ton of secondary metallurgical coke are traded in port trade.

 

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Output: in March 2020, the national coke output was 38.03 million tons, down 2.4% year on year. From January to March 2020, the national coke output is 109.5 million tons, down 4.1% year on year, 1.4 percentage points lower than that from January to February..

 

Import and export: in March 2020, China exported 32 tons of coke and semi coke, a decrease of 40000 tons on a month on month basis, down 11.11%; a year-on-year decrease of 45.9%. From January to March 2020, 69 tons of coke and semi coke were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 65.7%.

 

Product: the coke market has entered the consolidation period since the reduction of 50 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month. As of 31, the main transaction price of quasi first-class wet quenching coke in Shanxi is about 1500-1600 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton from last month. At the beginning of the month, affected by the overseas situation, the steel plant operated in a weak position, the coke output was stable, and the steel plant transferred to the pressure coke market went down slightly. After that, the coke entered the consolidation channel and remained stable until the end of the month. Up to now, the operation rate of the downstream steel plant has picked up, and the coke demand is acceptable. On May 29, the high-speed charging was resumed from May 6, which has a certain impact on the coke cost. In terms of inventory: at present, the inventory of coking enterprises is relatively low, the environmental protection pressure is relatively small in the near future, the operating rate is slightly higher than that in the early stage, the coke output is stable, the downstream demand is relatively stable, and most of them are purchased on demand.

 

Upstream and downstream: steel market supported by raw material prices, although there is a downward trend due to high inventory and bearish mentality, the upward momentum brought by policy and economic stimulus is expected to be sufficient. According to the data, as of April 24, the profit margin of 247 steel mills in China was 84.21%, a two-month high, and basically returned to the pre epidemic level. But on the whole, in the first quarter of 2020, the benefits of steel enterprises are only slightly increased, and the industry leverage ratio is still high.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are four commodities in the list of price rise and fall of bulk commodities in April 2020, among which the top three commodities are liquefied gas (4.99%), MTBE (4.92%) and methanol (3.59%). There are 12 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 6 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 37.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 25.05%), asphalt (- 23.39%) and naphtha (- 18.96%). This month’s average price was – 6.46%..

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The recovery of Expressway charging will support the cost of coke market to some extent, but the whole industrial chain is in a relatively balanced state at present, so we should pay attention to the stock situation of steel mills in the future.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitoring of business agency, zinc market recovered in April, and zinc price rose in shock. As of April 30, the spot price of zinc was 16646.67 yuan / ton, up 7.24% from 15523.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. In April, the number of domestic enterprises resumed construction increased, the zinc market was good, and the overall zinc market rose.

 

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2、 Market trend analysis

 

LME Market

 

It can be seen from the LME price chart that in April, the price of zinc ingot in LME market rose in shock, the supply and demand in the international market both fell, and the overall international zinc market rose in shock, which is good for the domestic zinc market.

 

Zinc stock in Shanghai market

 

Time: this week’s inventory increase / decrease available inventory capacity

Subtotal futures subtotal futures increase / decrease of last week and this week

4.27-4.30 120881 56305 -12468 -7251 446444 453695 7251

4.20-4.24 133349 63556 -13617 -16112 430332 446444 16112

4.13-4.17 146966 79668 -6352 -4315 426017 430332 4315

4.6-4.10 153318 83983 -4821 -2680 423337 426017 2680

3.30-4.3 158139 86663 -1867 -2339 420998 423337 2339

3.23-3.27 160006 89002 -8319 -5008 415990 420998 5008

3.16-3.20 168325 94010 -1586 7125 423115 415990 -7125

3.9-3.13 169911 86885 7509 -1202 421913 423115 1202

3.2-3.6 162402 88087 2391 1999 423912 421913 -1999

 
It can be seen from the table that last week, the stock of zinc ingot in Shanghai futures market fell sharply in April, the stock of futures fell sharply, the supply of domestic zinc market fell sharply, and the demand continued to pick up. Generally, the domestic zinc market is more favorable, and the zinc market is gradually picking up.

 

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Domestic zinc production

 

Date: monthly output (10000 tons) cumulative output (10000 tons) year on year growth (%) cumulative growth (%)

March 2020 48.9 149.5 4.7 11

February 2020 — 104 — 12.9

December 2019 60.7 623.6 19.5 9.2

November 2019 59.4 569.2 13.1 9

October 2019 54.8 512.3 8.3 9.4

September 2019 54.8 458.3 18.9 9.5

August 2019 52.8 403.4 18.9 8.2

July 2019 51.2 343.8 17.4 6.1

June 2019 51.3 281.5 10.3 2.3

May 2019 48 226.9 7.4 – 0.6

April 2019 46.5 176.5-0.4-4.4

March 2019 45.3 130.6 0.4 – 5.1

February 2019 – 85.1 – 8.2

It can be seen from the table that in the first quarter, the domestic zinc ingot production maintained a substantial growth, and the epidemic had little impact on the production of zinc ingots. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee is still at a high level, the production enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises is still on the rise, the output of zinc ingots continues to increase, the zinc market is still in oversupply, and the downward pressure of zinc market is still on.

 

China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index

 

 

China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.8% in April, down 1.2 percentage points from last month, according to the National Bureau of statistics. In April, the production and operation of the manufacturing industry continued to improve compared with last month, but the expansion strength was weakened. In April, the resumption of work and production of enterprises continued to advance, and large, medium and small enterprises maintained a recovery trend, but the overall demand recovery was weaker than that of production, and affected by the sharp contraction of global economic activities, the uncertainty of import and export market increased. The overall domestic economic recovery is good for the zinc market; the risk of the international market is large, and the space for the zinc market to rise is limited.

 

3、 Future prospects

 

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business club, thinks that: in April, the domestic zinc market was generally good, the domestic economic production continued to improve in April, the zinc market slowly recovered, the domestic zinc ingot output grew steadily, the supply and demand of the zinc market were still serious, and the domestic zinc Market was lack of momentum. In terms of international zinc market, the international zinc market is fluctuating and contracting, the rising power of the international zinc market is insufficient and the falling pressure is large. Affected by the epidemic situation, the production of zinc ore is cut down a lot, and the downstream automobile industry is basically stagnant. The overall international zinc Market is in double decline of supply and demand, and the global transportation is limited at this stage, the import and export of international zinc ingots is blocked greatly, and the impact of international zinc price on domestic zinc price is weakened. Generally speaking, with the resumption of production of domestic enterprises, the demand of domestic zinc market is gradually increasing, and the zinc market has a certain momentum of growth. It is expected that the price of zinc will rise slowly in the future. However, due to the serious oversupply of zinc market, there is no room for a large increase in zinc market, and it is expected that the price of zinc will rise slightly in the future.

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