1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of calcium carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on May 8 was 5680 yuan / ton, up 4.32% from the beginning of the month, down 19.49% from the same period last year. On May 7, the PVC commodity index was 71.28, up 1.81 points from yesterday, down 28.72% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 22.33% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: after the May Day holiday, the decline of domestic PVC market has come to an end. We are pleased to welcome the rise. In the three days after the holiday, we realized three consecutive rises, with an increase of more than 200 yuan, or 4.32%. In May, with the improvement of foreign economy and the gradual recovery of demand, the rebound of international oil price has driven the raw material market and the rise of PVC futures, the spot price of PVC has risen continuously. After the May 1st Labor Day holiday, the restrictions on high-speed transportation of dangerous chemicals were lifted, short-term stock replenishment occurred in the downstream, PVC enterprises generally increased, the focus of transactions continued to move up, the overall trading atmosphere of the market improved, and the confidence of the operators increased. At present, some enterprises have entered the stage of maintenance, with tight supply, favorable supply side, and higher downstream demand. With multiple favorable supports, PVC market is gradually recovering with good expectations. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of May 8, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is around 5450-5750 yuan / ton.

Futures: pvcv2009 contract opened at a high volatility on July 7, closing at 5665 yuan / ton, compared with – 15 yuan on the previous trading day; trading volume was 152303, + 396; positions were 190288, + 3803, base difference was 35 yuan, + 165 yuan; 9-1 price difference was 80 yuan, + 35 yuan.

Import and export: in March, the import volume of domestic PVC was 57800 tons, an increase of 97.95% month on month compared with February, and a decrease of 13.69% year on year. In March, the export volume of domestic PVC was 84700 tons, a sharp increase of 185.19% on February and a year-on-year increase of 21.87%.

Industry chain: on May 5, WTI crude oil futures market price in the United States rose sharply, and the settlement price of main contracts was 24.56 yuan / barrel, up 4.17 US dollars or 20.5%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of major contracts at $30.97/barrel, up $3.77 or 13.87%. Before and after the May Day holiday, the international crude oil futures market went out of the market of “five linked suns”. According to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI rose by 60% from April 29 to May 5. The rebound of crude oil is mainly due to the market expectation of restarting economy in many countries in Europe and the United States, as well as the positive production reduction of oil producing countries. As for calcium carbide, the ex factory price of Northwest calcium carbide rose slightly on May 8. The ex factory price in Shaanxi is about 2200-2350 yuan / ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable; the ex factory price in Qinghai is about 2300 yuan / ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable; the ex factory price in Inner Mongolia is about 2300 yuan / ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agencies, on May 7, 2020, there are five commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in rubber and plastic plate, including one commodity with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 5.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the plate; the top three commodities are PA6 (5.47%), PVC (2.60%) and natural rubber (0.54%). There are two kinds of commodities with a month on month decline. The first two products with a month on month decline are PP (fiber) (- 1.18%) and PA66 (- 1.01%). The average price of this day is 0.43%.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that: at present, the supply of PVC spot market is tight, the terminal demand is gradually restored, the market transaction atmosphere is good, the trading center is constantly moving up, coupled with the rebound of international oil price, the rise of PVC futures and other multiple interest, the spot price is rising continuously, and it is expected that PVC will continue to rise in the short term.