1、 Price trend
In April 2020, the coke market fell slightly. The main market price in Shanxi Province was 1563.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 1513.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 3.20%.
On April 30, the coke commodity index was 79.44, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.17% from 135.04 (2018-09-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 129.26% from 34.65, the lowest point on March 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).
2、 Trend analysis
Price: according to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic coke market is stable this week. As of Friday, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shanghai is 1680 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1740 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Xuzhou is 1650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1720 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Weifang, Shandong is 1640 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1700 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 154 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1700 yuan / ton The mainstream price of primary metallurgical coke is 1590 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province is 1580 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1640 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shenyang, Liaoning Province is 1610 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1670 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Pingdingshan, Henan Province is 1700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1800 yuan / ton; Hebei Province The mainstream price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke is 1630 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1680 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of Tianjin secondary metallurgical coke is 1650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1750 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market in Sichuan is 1780 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Liupanshui coke market in Guizhou is 1920 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of Ordos coke market The mainstream price of grade two metallurgical coke is 1300 yuan / ton. About 1900 yuan / ton of primary metallurgical coke, 1800 yuan / ton of quasi primary metallurgical coke and 1700 yuan / ton of secondary metallurgical coke are traded in port trade.
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Output: in March 2020, the national coke output was 38.03 million tons, down 2.4% year on year. From January to March 2020, the national coke output is 109.5 million tons, down 4.1% year on year, 1.4 percentage points lower than that from January to February..
Import and export: in March 2020, China exported 32 tons of coke and semi coke, a decrease of 40000 tons on a month on month basis, down 11.11%; a year-on-year decrease of 45.9%. From January to March 2020, 69 tons of coke and semi coke were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 65.7%.
Product: the coke market has entered the consolidation period since the reduction of 50 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month. As of 31, the main transaction price of quasi first-class wet quenching coke in Shanxi is about 1500-1600 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton from last month. At the beginning of the month, affected by the overseas situation, the steel plant operated in a weak position, the coke output was stable, and the steel plant transferred to the pressure coke market went down slightly. After that, the coke entered the consolidation channel and remained stable until the end of the month. Up to now, the operation rate of the downstream steel plant has picked up, and the coke demand is acceptable. On May 29, the high-speed charging was resumed from May 6, which has a certain impact on the coke cost. In terms of inventory: at present, the inventory of coking enterprises is relatively low, the environmental protection pressure is relatively small in the near future, the operating rate is slightly higher than that in the early stage, the coke output is stable, the downstream demand is relatively stable, and most of them are purchased on demand.
Upstream and downstream: steel market supported by raw material prices, although there is a downward trend due to high inventory and bearish mentality, the upward momentum brought by policy and economic stimulus is expected to be sufficient. According to the data, as of April 24, the profit margin of 247 steel mills in China was 84.21%, a two-month high, and basically returned to the pre epidemic level. But on the whole, in the first quarter of 2020, the benefits of steel enterprises are only slightly increased, and the industry leverage ratio is still high.
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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are four commodities in the list of price rise and fall of bulk commodities in April 2020, among which the top three commodities are liquefied gas (4.99%), MTBE (4.92%) and methanol (3.59%). There are 12 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 6 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 37.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 25.05%), asphalt (- 23.39%) and naphtha (- 18.96%). This month’s average price was – 6.46%..
3、 Future forecast
The recovery of Expressway charging will support the cost of coke market to some extent, but the whole industrial chain is in a relatively balanced state at present, so we should pay attention to the stock situation of steel mills in the future.
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