Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (August 16): 775.00 yuan / ton

On August 16, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong was temporarily stable, which was the same as the quotation on August 13. From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market has been rising step by step recently, and the cost support is good. Moreover, the downstream formic acid market is also rising steadily, which has a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid.

Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong may rise slightly, and the average quotation price is about 800 yuan / ton.

Aluminum prices fluctuated upward in August, rising 0.65% this week The average price of aluminum ingot spot market fluctuated at a high level in the middle and early August, with an operating range of 19700-20100 yuan / ton, with an increase of 1.02% in the month. According to the data of business agency, on August 13, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 20060 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.65% compared with the average market price of 19930 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. During the week, it fell first and then rose, and the overall operation was volatile. Taking the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) as the benchmark price, it has increased by 27.55%. Main melody of supply side: increase in the proportion of power and production restriction The proportion of limited production in Yunnan has increased, and Guangxi, Guizhou and Inner Mongolia have also entered the ranks of limited production. The investment expectation of new production capacity during the year has been reduced to less than 1.3 million tons. At the end of July, Yunnan Shenhuo announced that the production limit was upgraded from 25% to 30%, and 35 units were forced to stop the tank again, with a total of 145 units stopped, and the operating capacity decreased to 550000 tons. In early August, Yunnan Aluminum was not spared. The shutdown situation was similar to that of Shenhuo. The shutdown ratio of aluminum plant reached 30%, and the operating capacity decreased to 1.87 million tons. Expected factors: it is difficult to resume production in Guangxi and Yunnan in September. In the second half of 2021, the supply and demand of electricity in flood season is expected to be basically balanced, the supply may be insufficient in some periods, and there is still a gap in electricity and electricity from November to December. At the end of the year, Yunnan entered the dry season again, and the restart cost of electrolytic aluminum cell is high. In order to avoid frequent switching, it is expected that it will be difficult for Yunnan electrolytic aluminum plant to resume production on a large scale from September to October. Downstream processing enterprises are also affected In early August, some aluminum processing enterprises in Zhengzhou and Luoyang, Henan Province received a notice from the Power Bureau under their jurisdiction. Large industrial enterprises limited power by 50% according to the situation, and all industrial enterprises below 10kV stopped production, which is expected to last for three weeks or more. The weekly operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises fell by 0.6% to 67.8%. The peak load shifting and power rationing in Henan again led to the weakening of the operating rate. According to the category of aluminum materials, the production of aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises is reduced due to insufficient power supply. At the same time, due to the epidemic situation in Zhengzhou, the transportation is blocked, and the willingness of foreign vehicles to go to the epidemic area is very low. From the perspective of social inventory of aluminum ingots, the downstream is relatively unaffected and the overall supply is tight. Future forecast August is in the off-season, and domestic demand is expected to slow down, which poses a certain downward risk to aluminum price. However, the production capacity is reduced due to the cost and power restriction. At present, the market inventory is small, which supports the aluminum price. Ye Jianjun, an analyst of business society, believes that the current price range of 19500-20500 yuan / ton is a steady-state shock range formed by the market game. It is expected that the aluminum ingot price will still operate around 199000 yuan / ton in the near future. On the whole, the short-term downward risk will be weakened and the high shock operation will still be maintained.

1、 Market price trend chart of nitric acid

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of concentrated nitric acid in China this week was 3096 yuan / ton, and the quotation was stable.

2、 Market analysis

On August 9, Anhui Jinhe offered 3200 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the last time; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 2890 yuan / ton for concentrated nitric acid and 1180 yuan / ton for dilute nitric acid, which is flat compared with the last time; The quotation of Shandong helitai concentrated nitric acid is 3200 yuan / ton, which is flat compared with the last time; The ex factory quotation of Shaanxi Xinghua Chemical concentrated nitric acid is 2650 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of the last time; Hongze Yinzhu chemical industry in Jiangsu Province is affected by the epidemic situation and will not make an offer for the time being. The nitric acid market has different transactions, and the manufacturer’s quotation is stable.

The average production price of upstream liquid ammonia in Shandong this week (8.9-8.12) is 4800 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable. The average price of downstream aniline in the domestic market this week (8.9-8.12) is 10466 yuan / ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable. Downstream TDI this week (8.9-8.12) on August 9, the average price of East China market was 14575 yuan / ton, and on August 12, the average price of East China market was 14425 yuan / ton, down 1.03%.

3、 Future forecast

In the early stage, nitric acid was boosted by the raw material liquid ammonia, and the shipment of nitric acid was well supported, with a large increase. Nitric acid analysts of business society predicted that nitric acid might be mainly consolidated.

After the continuous rise in the first two days of August, according to the monitoring data of business society, since the market offer of bisphenol A was 27320 yuan / ton on August 3 and 26960 yuan / ton on August 10, it has fallen by 1.32% in the past week. Although the trading atmosphere was obviously light, the bisphenol a market did not show a sharp decline trend, and the market atmosphere eased on August 10, and the market offer became more stable, On the 10th, the domestic market negotiation reference was 26800-27000 yuan / ton. The owner intended to offer firm at 27000 yuan / ton. Although the low price news came out, the market mentality was stable as a whole, and the owner’s mentality was good. With the long-term decline in the bisphenol a market, it gradually appeared that the downstream market just needed replenishment, and the small order transaction was at a high level.

In terms of factories, Sinopec Mitsubishi, Lihua yiweiyuan and Nantong Xingchen started construction in 80%, and Changchun chemical and other bisphenol A units are operating at full capacity. At present, the main factors affecting the price are the low circulation in the trade link, the positive attitude of cargo holders, strong reluctance to sell, and dare to offer high prices. In addition, the logistics in East China has been significantly blocked recently, and the downstream supports high price transactions under just needed orders, Strong support for bisphenol A.

From the raw material side, the phenol market fluctuates in a narrow range and operates weakly, and the market negotiation is in a stalemate state. The negotiation is 8700-8800 yuan / ton, and the Hong Kong stock has increased. There are many low-cost active shippers under the stable price of the shippers. However, in view of the high cost, the shippers have an obvious feeling of supporting the price, the downstream offer mood is poor, which continues to depress the market, and the transportation is rarely blocked in the near future, The overall atmosphere is tepid and the trading surface is not optimistic. It is expected to maintain narrow fluctuations in the short term.

On the other hand, the raw material acetone market increased significantly and continued to rise in August. Especially with the help of the factory, the overall increase in August was about 500 yuan / ton, an increase of 10%. However, on the 10th, the wind turned sharply, the negotiation atmosphere obviously weakened, and the mainstream negotiation range was 5600-5700 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere was general, the downstream replenishment mood cooled, and the quotation of traders kept falling, The focus of the negotiations was to stop the rise and fall.

The downstream liquid epoxy resin is mainly operated horizontally. Under the recent narrow decline of bisphenol A, the high-end offer of epoxy resin has dropped slightly. The monitoring of business society shows that the negotiation of liquid epoxy resin is 33000-34000 yuan / ton and that of solid epoxy resin is 28300-28800 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the rise of raw materials is slightly weak, the beneficial support is reduced, and on the other hand, the logistics transportation is blocked, Access to the main East China area is limited, and major enterprises offer according to the market and make steady progress. It is expected that the epoxy resin market is easy to fall but difficult to rise in the short term.

According to the business society, there are still few spot resources in the circulation link, traders are reluctant to sell, and the bisphenol a market is difficult to fall. However, on the whole, bisphenol A is at a historical high, the downstream cost is under pressure, and the upstream and downstream resistance continues to be obvious. Today, the East China factory is bidding, paying attention to the trend of bidding price, and the health society expects that the bisphenol a market will be strong in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, on the 10th, the nickel price fell slightly. The spot nickel quotation was 140100 yuan / ton, down 1.18% from the previous trading day, up 9.34% from the beginning of the year and up 24.42% year-on-year.

Nickel prices continued to fall slightly today. Non farm data strongly boosted the US dollar, and Lun Ni closed down 3.23% overnight. Low inventory is still an effective support for nickel price, but the domestic policy of ensuring price and stable supply suppresses the short correction of nickel price. In terms of stainless steel, affected by the correction of sports “carbon reduction”, the futures price fell, and the trend of nickel price was dragged down. New energy consumption remains strong. Jinrui futures pointed out that the strong demand for new energy is the biggest support for nickel, the tight pattern of nickel sulfate crystal is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the sulfur nickel premium primary nickel (nickel bean nickel powder) and nickel bean water nickel plate new energy profit chain will continue.

Forecast: it is expected that spot nickel will maintain a narrow shock trend in the short term.

The decline of crude oil was superimposed on the expectation that the downstream polyester plant would increase production reduction, and the current price of PTA fell. As of August 9, the average price of PTA in the domestic spot market was 5315 yuan / ton, down 0.26% from the previous trading day and up 45.04% year-on-year. PTA futures 2201 closed at 5260, down 46, or 0.87%.

In terms of supply, Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million T / a PTA plant began to heat up on August 4 and discharged on August 6. At present, the operating rate of the industry has rebounded to more than 73%. The 3.3 million T / a PTA unit of Yisheng new material started to restart on August 5, and the material has not been discharged on August 9. In addition, PTA’s main suppliers reduced their supply in August or delayed delivery to September, resulting in a small supply of spot goods in the market, which formed a certain support for the market.

However, crude oil fell. As of August 6, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $68.28/barrel, down US $0.81 or 1.20%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $70.70/barrel, down US $0.59 or 0.83%. The main reason is that the market is worried about the negative impact of delta mutation virus on economic recovery, and the negative worries on the demand side are aggravated. At the same time, the polyester Market in the downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has been on the sidelines recently, with weak demand and stable price. Poor production and sales, some polyester factories have the intention to reduce production, and the demand for PTA is expected to decline.

Business analysts believe that the cost and demand side support are weakened, but there are not many PTA circulating spot goods, which may inhibit the price decline. It is expected that the short-term PTA market will mainly decline in a narrow range. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the restart of crude oil and its own devices.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market was under pressure this week, and the price continued to decline. At the beginning of the week, the market was 7485 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7727 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.51%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the price chart of business society, the downward range of propylene price this week has become larger. As of Friday, the mainstream price of propylene in Shandong is 7700-7750 yuan / ton and the low-end price is 7600 yuan / ton. Due to the significant decline of crude oil price, propylene price is under pressure, the market bearish mentality is strong, and the downstream demand is OK, but the negative impact of cost is strong, and the demand support is weak.

Crude oil prices fell sharply this week, as concerns about the slowdown in demand caused by the delta virus were further amplified, as well as concerns about oversupply caused by increased production in oil producing countries. Crude oil fell 6.57% this week.

PP prices fell weakly this week, the operating rate of downstream enterprises was not high, and there was a lack of demand. Weak purchasing follow-up and poor response to high price supply, with a decrease of 1.77% during the week.

Acrylic acid continued to rise this week, with low industrial inventory. In addition, some enterprises stopped their units for maintenance, the market supply was tight, and the just need support was obvious. The market had a strong upward atmosphere, with a weekly increase of 4.72%. It plays a supporting role in the propylene market.

Isopropanol made a firm and upward offer this week, with raw materials rising and strong market adjustment intention, with an increase of 7.29% during the week.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts of business community chemical branch believe that the cost side is dominant, and crude oil is bearish in the future. It is expected that the propylene market will maintain a weak downward trend.

Trade name: isopropanol

Latest price August 4: 6500 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on August 4, the domestic isopropanol market price rebounded slightly. Upstream acetone is rising steadily, which has certain support for isopropanol. The factory quotation is relatively strong, the trader’s mentality is good, the isopropanol market has strong intention to increase, and the quotation is firm and upward. Up to now, the quotation range of Shandong isopropanol is about 6300-6500 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu isopropanol is about 6500-6600 yuan / ton. The quotation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is around 6500-6600 yuan / ton.

Prediction: isopropanol will be dominant in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the market situation of ammonium chloride rose sharply in July. The price at the beginning of the month was around 830 yuan / ton and the price at the end of the month was around 1075 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 29.52%.

In July, the overall operating rate of ammonium chloride enterprises was around 60%, which was significantly lower than that in June. The manufacturer’s inventory was low, there was no pressure on shipment, and the offer was gradually increased; In July, the overall operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer continued to maintain around 30 ~ 40%, and the support for ammonium chloride was weak. According to the business agency, as of July 31, 2021, the 3.3 million ton agricultural ammonium chloride plant in Jinshan, Henan Province, Jindadi plant was in normal operation, and the construction of Jinshan and Jintian plants was 40-50%. At present, the factory price of agricultural ammonium chloride in dry ammonium province is 1150 yuan / ton, and the factory price of wet ammonium province is 1100 yuan / ton.

The sharp rise of raw liquid ammonia and the high consolidation of urea market have formed strong support for ammonium chloride. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of July 31, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 4883 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 10.15% over the price of 4433 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; As of July 31, the domestic urea price was 2830 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 1.07% over the price of 2800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: the ammonium chloride analyst of business society believes that although the operation of combined alkali is low, the cost support of ammonium chloride is strong, and it is expected that ammonium chloride will remain strong in the short term; However, in the medium term, with the end of the peak season of agricultural demand, the price of agricultural materials will fall to a certain extent, and the price of ammonium chloride may fall to a certain extent in the later stage.

According to the commodity index system of business society, the natural rubber commodity index on July 29 was 38.22, the same as yesterday, down 61.78% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 40.10% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in July 2021

According to the data monitoring of business society, in July 2021, the domestic all latex Market of natural rubber continued to fluctuate widely after a sharp rise at the beginning of this month, showing a “W” shape: the mainstream reported 12370 yuan / ton on the 1st and 13107.5 yuan / ton on the 31st, with a monthly increase of 5.96%; It is worth noting that the highest price of this month was 13212 yuan / ton on the 16th, the lowest was 12370 yuan / ton on the 1st, and the maximum amplitude was 6.81%. This month, the domestic output of new rubber gradually increased, the operating rate of tire enterprises picked up, and the output of outer tire increased; Affected by the epidemic and rainfall in Southeast Asia, the output of new rubber is limited, the export is limited, the sea freight is high, the container is short, and the import of raw rubber is restricted, which makes the natural rubber market fluctuate upward this month.

From the perspective of new rubber output, the main natural rubber production areas in China are normally opened and cut, and the inventory of new rubber is increasing. In Southeast Asia, according to Thailand on July 20, affected by the spread of delta mutant strain, the three major rubber producing countries in the world, namely Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, reduced rubber production by 4-5% due to curfew and city closure measures. In addition to the fact that the epidemic situation in Thailand has not improved, it has also been affected by heavy rainfall in the south. In addition, the shortage of rubber shipping containers cannot be solved, resulting in high transportation costs, including lack of labor and decline in rubber production. The latest news from the international tripartite Council of rubber (ITRC) pointed out that there is almost no rubber production, which is quite scarce. The two countries with insufficient supply and demand have an annual output of 3.22 million tons in Indonesia and 560000 tons in Malaysia. As the blockade measures are implemented during the epidemic and cannot be exported, the total output of the above two countries is expected to decline by 4-5% during the same period. And the impact of heavy rainfall on Southeast Asia is increasing. According to Thai media reports on the 28th, the Thai Meteorological Bureau released a 24-hour weather forecast. 29 provinces in Thailand will usher in heavy rainfall, especially in eastern and northern Thailand, Bangkok and its surrounding areas.

From the downstream demand and the situation of China’s tire manufacturers, the operating rate picked up in July. Data statistics show that as of July 22, the domestic operating rate of all steel tires was 62.75% (+ 3.8%), and the domestic operating rate of semi steel tires was 58.65% (+ 2.8%). According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of rubber tire casing in China in June was 75.389 million, a year-on-year increase of 12%. From January to June, the output of rubber tire casing increased by 32.1% over the same period of last year to 449055 million. From the automobile data, the national automobile output was 2.04 million in June 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%. According to the ten day report data of 11 key automobile enterprises in the industry, China Automobile Industry Association shows that in the first and middle of July 2021, the automobile production of 11 key enterprises completed 806000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 33%. Among them, the production of passenger cars decreased by 31.2% year-on-year; Commercial vehicle production decreased by 41.3% year-on-year. According to the analysis of China Automobile Association, the decline in production and sales of passenger cars is mainly affected by the insufficient supply of chips, while commercial vehicles are related to the switching of emission standards. With regard to the development trend of the automobile industry in the future, the China Automobile Association said that China’s economic operation will continue to maintain a stable recovery, which plays a good supporting role in the stability of automobile consumption. However, there are still unstable and uncertain factors in the global economic recovery and epidemic prevention and control, there are also differences in the development of different domestic industries, and the foundation for sustained economic recovery still needs to be consolidated, In particular, the impact of chip supply on enterprise production is still prominent, and the sharp rise in raw material prices will further increase the cost pressure of enterprises. These problems will also affect the automotive industry. Therefore, the association is still cautious and optimistic about the development trend of the industry.

In terms of inventory, the total inventory of the exchange in the previous period was 193886 tons (+ 3271 tons) as of July 23, and the quantity of futures warehouse receipts was 177270 tons (- 880 tons). The data showed that the slight recovery of downstream procurement and the slowdown of import volume led to the continued downward trend of port inventory.

In terms of import and export, China: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 13, China imported 462000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in June 2021, down 13.5% from 534000 tons in the same period in 2020. From January to June 2021, China imported a total of 3.294 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 5.2% over 3.132 million tons in the same period in 2020. Thailand: according to Thai media reports on July 18, the Ministry of Commerce of Thailand said that in the first five months of 2021, Thailand’s rubber exports increased by more than 50% year-on-year. The export volume was 70.34 billion baht, an increase of 50.8% over 46.65 billion baht in the same period last year. The export volume increased to 1.39 million tons from 1.17 million tons in the same period last year.

Hot spots in the industry: the rubber authority of Thailand promotes the plan of planting durian instead of rubber – according to the report of Thai media on July 26, as a valuable crop, the market demand for durian is growing. Therefore, cherun Chai, Minister of agriculture and cooperatives of Thailand, put forward the idea of planting durian instead of rubber. According to the 20-year rubber strategy, it is planned to reduce the rubber planting area to about 18.4 million Lai“ The rubber cutting plan of planting new crops to replace old rubber will only be aimed at rubber trees over 25 years old. The rubber cutting surface of these rubber trees has been used up, and farmers will cut them faster because the price of rubber wood is high. Planting other crops to replace rubber will be part of the rubber price stabilization plan to solve the problem of continuous low price from the past. ”

As for the future market, the analysis of business society believes that from the macro perspective, international crude oil has experienced a sharp decline and rebound of more than 10 points this month, and bulk commodities with strong financial attributes have also experienced the same market. From the output situation, the output of natural rubber supply end in China is normal, and the pressure of increasing production is intensified; The epidemic situation in Southeast Asian production areas is still severe, coupled with the impact of weather factors, the local rubber export volume has decreased. In terms of demand, the operating rate of downstream tire enterprises continued to rise this month, but due to the impact of macro demand and insufficient chip supply, the production and sales of passenger cars still declined. In terms of import and export, affected by the high shipping costs and the lack of ships, China’s market is still expected to have a low import volume. The typhoon “fireworks” transit this month, and the arrival time of some imported ships has been delayed to a certain extent. In terms of inventory, the recovery of downstream start-up has accelerated the consumption of existing inventory and delayed the arrival time, resulting in the continuous inventory reduction stage of domestic port inventory. As for the future market, the “golden nine and silver ten” will be soon after August, with strong upward support; Long term rubber price trend, focusing on foreign anti epidemic situation and downstream demand recovery.