Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol in the Shandong region decreased slightly this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market of Shandong region dropped from 9550.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9483.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.70%. Weekend prices increased by 9.42% year-on-year. On July 10th, the isooctanol commodity index was 69.98, an increase of 0.25 points from yesterday, a decrease of 49.11% from the highest point of 137.50 points in the cycle (2021-08-08), and a rise of 99.09% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 6683.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6563.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.80%. Weekend prices fell by 12.03% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP market price has slightly decreased this week. The price of DOP decreased by 0.09% from 9776.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9767.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week. Weekend prices increased by 4.19% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly declined, and downstream customers are less proactive in purchasing isooctanol.

Future prospects

In mid to late July, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream DOP market has slightly declined, and downstream demand is weak. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience minor fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China increased from 2850.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2866.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.58%. Weekend prices fell by 25.54% year-on-year. On July 9th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 75.11, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 64.61% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 35.36% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand is average

From the supply side perspective, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased this week, and the inventory of manufacturers is average.

The upstream blue charcoal market has stabilized at a low level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly fluctuated and increased. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is around 1020 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable. This week, the PVC market price dropped from 5505.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5493.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.21%. Weekend prices fell by 19.81% year-on-year. The PVC market price fluctuated slightly and fell, with downstream customers having average enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

In mid to late July, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The price of raw material blue charcoal has stabilized at a low level, with good cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. In mid to late July, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market slightly declined this week. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 6683 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6645 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.56% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.03%.

As of July 7th, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ July 7th

Shandong region/ 6450-6500 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 6050-6100 yuan/ton

East China/ 6300-6350 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and Review

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the propylene market in Shandong rose this week and then slightly declined, with the market initially rising and then declining. Due to the maintenance of some units in the Shandong propylene market during the weekend, supply was tightened, and the quotation was actively pushed up. Subsequently, the downstream showed a resistance towards the high prices after the rise, and the continued upward momentum was insufficient. On the contrary, it stimulated the buying of goods, causing prices to shift from rising to falling, and the focus of transactions to shift downwards.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that overall, the cost side of crude oil is mainly weak, while the demand side is still weak. It is expected that the propylene market will remain weak in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has been fluctuating and consolidating recently. This week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1103.33 yuan/ton, and the current price has decreased by 14.55% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has been relatively stable. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly, and the market has continued to remain stable this week. As of July 6th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1020-1150 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol has shown an upward trend, but downstream sheet metal factories have poor demand, and market trading sentiment is average. Formaldehyde manufacturers are shipping normally, and the market is consolidating.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market situation has been sorted out. The ex factory price of methanol in the southern region of Shandong is referenced to be around 2100 yuan/ton for cash exchange, while the delivery price in Linyi is referenced to be around 2160 yuan/ton for cash exchange. The local methanol factory in central Shandong offers a price of 2250-2250 yuan/ton for self delivery from the factory. The negotiated price range for methanol in the Dongying region of Shandong is 2070-2090 yuan/ton.

Recently, there has been an upward trend in the methanol market, with good cost support. Downstream sheet metal factories are experiencing poor operating rates due to high temperatures, causing a tug of war between supply and demand. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that formaldehyde prices in Shandong will mainly fluctuate and rise in the near future.

From January to June 2023, the average price of 1 # lead ingot market in East China will be 15745 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 15225 yuan/ton at the middle of the year, down 3.3% in half a year. The highest point in the first half of the year was 15745 yuan/ton on January 1st, and the lowest point was 14950 yuan/ton on June 2nd, with a maximum amplitude of 5.05%. After a broad decline at the beginning of the year, the trend was mostly volatile.

On July 3rd, the lead commodity index was 93.69, an increase of 1.03 points from yesterday, a decrease of 30.09% from the cycle’s highest point of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 25.54% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

From 2019 to 2023, it can be seen from the lead price trend chart that the price trend of lead ingots has not fluctuated much, and the overall trend has maintained a wide range of fluctuations. The distinction between low and peak seasons is not so obvious, and most of them follow the overall market fluctuations. The main reason for this trend is that lead is a recyclable metal, and in China, the development of recycled lead has been very rapid in the past two years. The annual production has increased from 2.2 million tons in 2018 to 5.54 million tons in 2022. Therefore, the overall supply of lead ingots in China is relatively sufficient, and the price fluctuation range is limited.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. Since July 2022, the lead ingot market has maintained a narrow and volatile trend as a whole, with only an increase of 3.02% in November 2022 and a decrease of 3.84% in January 2023. Other monthly fluctuations are within 2%. Overall, the fluctuation range throughout the year was relatively small, and the overall trend remained broad and volatile.

The main fluctuation range of lead prices in the first half of 2023 is between 14900 and 15900 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the year, due to the comprehensive influence of downstream market factors such as the Spring Festival holiday and seasonal off-season, the market price showed a significant downward trend. In February, with the end of the holiday and the downstream off-season, lead prices returned to the fluctuation trend. Lead is a commodity with relatively low price fluctuations in the non-ferrous sector, and is less affected by its own supply and demand during the off-season, mainly following the overall market fluctuations.

Entering February, with the end of the 15th holiday of the first lunar month, the metal market gradually resumed normal production. The operating rate steadily increased throughout February, and by the end of the month, the operating rate had basically returned to normal. The supply of lead ingots was tight first and then loose. As the weather warmed, downstream storage companies began to operate, and the demand for lead ingots remained stable and improving. During the same period, the international macro performance was poor, with the overseas banking crisis fermenting in March, and the market’s risk aversion sentiment becoming increasingly strong. Due to the low inventory of lead in Lunlun and the support of the industry peak season, the lead’s resilience to decline is strong, so the price remains volatile. After April, as the weather warmed up, the battery industry gradually entered a seasonal off-season, with lead ingot prices fluctuating between 14900 and 15400 yuan/ton. The off-season trend from April to May was obvious, and the overall performance was a weak supply and demand pattern, with an increase of 0.3% in April, a decrease of 0.69% in May, and an increase of 1.33% in June.

Other factors affecting lead price:

Lead downstream applications mainly include Lead–acid battery, lead oxide, lead alloys, lead salts and cables, among which Lead–acid battery are the most important areas of lead consumption, accounting for more than 80%. China is a major producer, consumer and exporter of Lead–acid battery, so it is easy to understand the downstream demand of lead by focusing on the production of lead-acid batteries and other data. From 2015 to 2022, the output of Lead–acid battery in China increased year by year, and fell to the lowest level in 2018. Since then, it has continued to rise with a rapid growth rate, which has a good demand support for domestic lead ingots.

From 2012 to 2022, China’s lead production has significantly increased in the past 10 years, especially since 2015, where lead production has been increasing year by year. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative lead production from January to December 2022 was 7.811 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%. From January to May 2023, the national lead production was 3.269 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%. In the first half of 2023, the overall supply of lead ingots was relatively sufficient.

According to a report from the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS), the global refined lead production in April 2023 was 1.165322 million tons, with a consumption of 1.223342 million tons and a supply shortage of 580200 tons. The global lead ore production in April 2023 was 3666.82 million tons.

Future prospects:

As of the end of June, the maintenance of primary lead and recycled lead enterprises in terms of supply and demand has basically ended in mid June. Currently, manufacturers are actively operating, and with the rise of lead ingot prices and the recovery of manufacturers’ profits, there are expectations of an increase in lead ingot supply due to active operation. In terms of demand, the downstream market is still in the off-season, and the sales situation of batteries is still not significantly improving. Battery companies maintain the demand for replenishment and mainly support the demand for lead ingots. In the short term, the recent improvement in the export situation of lead ingots has boosted the market to a certain extent. However, under the influence of the off-season in the domestic market, it is difficult for the lead ingot market to have significant fluctuations. In the short term, it still maintains a small fluctuation trend, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the impact of macro level news on the market in the future. In the long run, as the weather turns hot, the battery industry will enter a seasonal peak season in August and September. The peak season usually lasts until the end of November when the weather turns cold. At that time, downstream demand for lead ingots will improve, and there will be some room for market prices to rise.

1、 Price Trend of Mixed Xylene for Half Year 2023

According to data monitoring from Business Society, mixed xylene fluctuated and rose in the first half of 2023, reaching its highest point in mid to late April, and then gradually declined. At the beginning of the year, the price of mixed xylene in China was 6710 yuan/ton. On June 30th, the price of mixed xylene in China was 7340 yuan/ton. Within six months, the price of mixed xylene increased by 630 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.39%. The highest price in half a year is around April 19th, with a price of 7880 yuan/ton. The lowest price for the year is around January 2nd, with a price of 6630 yuan/ton. The difference between the highest and lowest prices is 1250 yuan/ton.

2、 Domestic production price of mixed xylene in the first half of 2023 (monthly K-column chart)

According to the monthly K-column chart of mixed xylene, the months of significant increase in mixed xylene in the first half of 2023 were January, March, and April, while the months of significant decrease were May.

3、 Review of mixed xylene trends in the first half of 2023

The trend of mixed xylene in 2023 can be divided into two stages, with the first stage fluctuating and rising, and the second stage falling broadly.

The first stage (January April): In the crude oil market from January to April, the supply side maintains expectations of tightening, international crude oil prices skyrocket, and cost support continues to strengthen; Against the backdrop of high inflation and interest rate hikes, there is still a risk of recession in the European and American economies. However, after China fully liberalizes epidemic control, demand in Asia gradually increases, and international crude oil fluctuates in the high range; Many countries have announced the implementation of voluntary oil production reductions, and global crude oil demand remains growing; As the weather warms up, people’s willingness to travel and activity radius increase, and gasoline demand gradually increases; The low inventory of ground refining and the expansion of market terminal consumption are positive for the mixed xylene market, which is jointly boosted by multiple positive factors, and the mixed xylene market has continued to rise.

Phase 2 (May June): With the deepening of macro risk aversion sentiment, the trading atmosphere in the energy market is cautious; The unexpected increase in crude oil inventories in the United States has deepened market concerns about economic recession, and the oil market has developed in a volatile manner; As the weather warms up, gasoline demand is improving, but downstream demand for fine chemicals is weak, providing limited price support. Gasoline is mainly in demand, and support for mixed xylene is limited; The inflation level in the United States is still higher than expected, and Powell stated that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates twice within the year, and does not rule out the possibility of continuous rate hikes; The European Central Bank also stated that it is unable to end the interest rate hike cycle in the short term, and overseas demand expectations remain weak against the backdrop of high interest rates, limiting the upward space for oil prices. The mixed xylene market is a long short game.

4、 Price trend of mixed xylene industry chain in the first half of 2023

In the first half of 2023, both the upstream and downstream of mixed xylene showed an overall upward trend, with a cost based crude oil increase of 12.97%. The cost based support was acceptable, with mixed xylene increasing by nearly 10% in the first half of the year. The downstream PX market is relatively good, while OX is slightly weak.

5、 Prospects for mixed xylene trends in the second half of 2023

There is still a possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in July, and market risks remain; China and India in the Asian region have driven oil demand growth of over 2 million barrels per day, easing concerns about economic recession in Europe and America; Saudi Arabia and Russia have voluntarily reduced production by 1 million barrels and 500000 barrels per day in August, supporting oil prices; It is expected that the demand outlook in the second half of the year will remain weak, while the volatile trend of crude oil remains unchanged. The mixed xylene industry is cautious, and mixed xylene continues to fluctuate and consolidate. It is expected that the price trend of mixed xylene will continue to fluctuate along the cost and supply sides in the future. Pay attention to the dynamics of mixed xylene units, downstream operating rates, demand, and the impact of crude oil and external market trends on the price of mixed xylene.

1、 Price trend

 
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of PS at the beginning of this week was 9233 yuan/ton, and the average price of PS at the weekend was 9200 yuan/ton. The price decreased slightly by 0.36%, a decrease of 19.42% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

PS market wait-and-see consolidation, with low enthusiasm for buying and taking goods. At the end of the month, merchants are cautious and cautious, looking more and moving less.

International crude oil and styrene prices have risen, while PS petrochemical manufacturers have stabilized prices. The pace of buying and following up has been slow, and merchants are operating according to the market. The mainstream price of GPPS (Polyphenylene sulfide) in East China market is 8000-9300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is 8550-9650 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Trading in the PS market is light, and it is expected that the PS (polystyrene) market may experience a volatile and weak trend in the short term.

Price trend

In June, the domestic ABS market remained generally stable, with spot prices stabilizing slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 30th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10525 yuan/ton, a decrease of+0.96% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: The load of the ABS industry rebounded after a decline in this month. In the early stages, there were more enterprise maintenance and self reduction, which partially relieved the high operating rate. In the second half of the month, the trading volume rebounded, and the operating rate recovered slightly. At the end of the month, the industry operating rate was about 82%. However, the on-site spot supply is still relatively abundant, and the relief of supply side pressure is limited. The overall inventory has been depleted due to short supply and oversold in the middle and late stages, and the supply side has regained support for the spot market.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream materials in June was poor. Among them, the raw material acrylonitrile market is weak and declining, while the cost side propylene price first drops and then rises. Overall, it is weak and consolidation, and downstream enterprises are starting to operate lower. The impact of cost and demand on acrylonitrile is relatively short. Although acrylonitrile production slightly declined in June, transaction volume decreased and prices weakened slightly.

In June, the price of domestic butadiene plummeted in a stepwise manner. At the beginning of the month, some maintenance equipment resumed production, and production increased. At the same time, imported cargo gradually arrived at the port, putting pressure on the market supply side. In the middle of the day, the external market remained weak, with cautious downstream inquiries and poor high-end trading. At the end of the month, news such as the production of Sanjiang was bearish in the market, while the butadiene market was bearish, resulting in a stalemate and consolidation after the market fell.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market price fluctuated and decreased in June. The main reason for the decline is the fluctuating international crude oil prices, the continuous decline in the pure benzene market, poor cost support, downstream demand mainly, weak gas buying, and the main decline in the styrene market. In summary, the styrene market in June was mainly affected by costs and weak spot demand.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have average stocking enthusiasm, and the operating rate is generally at the off-season level. The manufacturer has a cautious wait-and-see attitude, but there are some low-priced short selling operations in the market, but overall demand improvement is limited.

Future Market Forecast

This month, the upstream three materials of ABS fell simultaneously, providing poor support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has decreased compared to the beginning of the month, and the market inventory has been partially digested. However, the demand side support is limited, and the overall weak and rigid demand pattern is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may continue this stalemate.