According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 7th to 11th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 7958 yuan/ton to 7930 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.36% during the period, a month on month drop of 0.43%, and a year-on-year drop of 12.86%. The domestic BDO market is experiencing weak consolidation. The restart and maintenance of the equipment are still ongoing, but the industry’s capacity utilization rate remains low, and the supplier’s market stability mentality continues. The overall downstream production has increased, but under cost pressure, it has entered the market for bargaining. The supply-demand game continues.
There are many fluctuations in the supply and installation aspects: the industry’s capacity utilization rate has slightly increased, but the transportation in Xinjiang is relatively slow, and there are certain favorable factors on the supply side. And the industry has been in a long-term loss making state, with a focus on maintaining market stability among suppliers. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: production enterprises have increased their production compared to the previous period, and their enthusiasm for shipment has improved. At present, the overall price of downstream receiving goods is stable. The domestic calcium carbide market is stable with small fluctuations. The domestic methanol market has fluctuated and adjusted. As of 3:00 pm on April 11th, the domestic methanol Taicang price was 2486 yuan/ton. The price adjustment and operation of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol have a mixed impact on the cost of BDO.
On the demand side, downstream PTMEG and PBT production has increased, and the load of PU slurry has slightly decreased. There is no significant change in other downstream loads, and the overall performance of the demand side is still acceptable. However, the follow-up of terminal demand is poor, and the downstream market in many industries is declining, resulting in increased cost pressures. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
Future forecast: The industry will suffer long-term losses, and the supply side will continue to maintain a stable market mentality. The overall downstream demand is still acceptable, but some industries are experiencing a downturn and increasing cost pressures, which may still lower the prices of raw materials. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will fluctuate within a certain range.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market fell first and then rose this week, showing an overall weak trend. As of April 11th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6333 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.92% from the beginning of the week.
The collapse of cost support and the escalation of trade frictions have led to a significant drop in crude oil prices. However, with Trump temporarily suspending tariffs on some countries, market panic has eased and crude oil prices have rebounded from oversold levels. As of April 10th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $60.07 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $63.33 per barrel. The market sentiment is cautious, and oil prices may fluctuate significantly in the short term.
The domestic load of PX has dropped to around 74%, and multiple units are undergoing load reduction or maintenance. The basic structure of supply and demand is still acceptable. There are still too many follow-up maintenance plans for PTA, and some domestic facilities have maintenance plans from April to June, which has reduced the supply pressure. However, the escalation of US tariff policies may trigger concerns about a global economic slowdown, and PTA has followed the weakening of crude oil. As of April 11th, the average market price in East China was 4338 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.14% from the beginning of the week.
The downstream market has shown cautious performance, with light market transactions and low enthusiasm for raw material stocking under the collapse of costs. Many essential purchases are made and used as needed. In the terminal weaving industry, especially in terms of foreign trade orders, inquiries have basically stagnated, and the market is in a wait-and-see state in many places. Actual orders are issued sporadically, and there is no significant boost in domestic and foreign trade in the short term. The operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has slightly declined to below 65%.
Business analysts believe that tariff news dominates market sentiment, with insufficient cost support and expectations of weak demand due to trade frictions. Therefore, in the short term, the polyester staple fiber market will mainly adjust weakly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 10, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 6583 yuan/ton. Compared with April 7 (reference price of n-butanol is 6783 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.95%.
This week (4.07-4.10), the n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China, experienced a downward trend. During the week, n-butanol factories in Shandong region lowered the price of n-butanol by 100-300 yuan/ton. The overall focus of negotiations in the n-butanol market in Shandong region has shifted downwards. As of April 10th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region is around 6500-6650 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Market Factors
In terms of supply and demand: At the beginning of the week, the overall supply pressure of n-butanol was still acceptable. With the impact of macro news, the market sentiment of n-butanol increased, downstream users were cautious in following up on new orders, and the inquiry atmosphere in the market was light. The demand support was poor, and the loose transmission of n-butanol supply and demand was hindered.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall support of the n-butanol market is insufficient, downstream users are operating rigorously, and some factories are actively shipping to maintain low inventory. The supply-demand contradiction in the market has increased. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province will mainly adjust and operate at a low level, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

Product Name: Pure Benzene
Latest price: On April 9th, the average market price was 6184 yuan/ton, a 5.55% decrease from the previous trading day.
Analysis: The price of pure benzene in the domestic market has fallen. Affected by the sharp drop in international oil prices and the downward trend of downstream styrene futures, the confidence in the pure benzene market is insufficient. Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China have lowered the price of pure benzene by 550 yuan/ton to 6200 yuan/ton, effective from April 8th. Shandong’s local refining enterprises continued to lower their quotations today, with active shipments from holders and a slightly average downstream demand for gas. It is expected that in the short term, the market will be filled with bearish sentiment based on the subsequent impact of current US tariff policies. Further attention should be paid to the direction of macro policies in the future.

After the Qingming Festival in April, the market price of epichlorohydrin weakened. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 8th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 7937.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.5% compared to early April.
Price influencing factors:
Supply side: Currently, there is ample supply of spot goods in the market, and some devices have maintenance plans in place.
Raw material side: The raw material propylene market has fluctuated and weakened, and cost pressure has eased to some extent. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 7th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6823.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.15% compared to the beginning of this month (6745.75 yuan/ton).
Downstream demand side: The downstream market is mostly wait-and-see, with insufficient support from the demand side. The trading atmosphere is average, with a focus on on-demand procurement.
Market forecast:
Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the loose supply of epoxy propane has eased the pressure on the end market, and the downstream trading atmosphere is average, with on-demand procurement as the main focus and insufficient demand support. It is expected that the epoxy propane market will continue to fluctuate in the later stage, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices.

On the early morning of April 3rd Beijing time, the United States announced a plan to impose equivalent tariffs, including a 34% increase in equivalent tariffs on China. Combined with two retaliatory tariffs of “10%+10%” implemented in February and March, the cumulative increase in tariffs on China is 54%, higher than market expectations. Although the tariff adjustment does not involve lithium carbonate, it is worth noting that it affects the terminal demand for lithium carbonate: the 25% automobile tariff imposed by the United States will increase the cost for Chinese new energy companies to enter the US market, and in the fields of power batteries and energy storage batteries, it may to some extent suppress the demand for lithium carbonate.
Affected by macro news, domestic lithium carbonate has continued to decline recently. As of April 7th, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, domestic battery grade lithium carbonate is 72973 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25% from the previous trading day’s 73900 yuan/ton, and domestic industrial grade lithium carbonate is 71966 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32% from the previous trading day’s 72200 yuan/ton.
Fundamentally speaking, the situation of oversupply of lithium carbonate in China has not changed, and inventory is still accumulating. Traders are actively reducing inventory, further exacerbating the market supply-demand imbalance, and the overall supply capacity continues to be surplus. Under the dual effects of high inventory pressure and pessimistic market expectations, it is expected that lithium carbonate prices will continue to bottom out in the short term, and specific changes in market supply and demand need to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on April 3rd, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic Shandong region was 8212 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as March 27th. Compared with March 1st, the reference price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 8925 yuan/ton, which was a decrease of 713 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.98%.
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the first week of April, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province, China, mainly showed consolidation and operation. Entering April, the overall fluctuation of the cyclohexanone market is not significant, and there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the market. As of April 3rd, the cyclohexanone market price in Shandong region is around 7950-8300 yuan/ton.
Market influencing factors
In terms of demand, downstream demand for cyclohexanone continues to slow down, overall downstream operating rates are not high, and new chemical fiber orders are showing cautious performance. The overall support provided by the demand side to the market is still weak.
On the supply side: Currently, the overall supply of cyclohexanone in the Shandong market is relatively abundant, with loose supply performance, providing limited support for the cyclohexanone market.
In terms of cost: In early April, the strong performance of the pure benzene market on the raw material side provided some support for the cost of cyclohexanone. As of April 3rd, the reference price of pure benzene was 6659.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan or 0.37% compared to March 31st (reference price of pure benzene was 6634.67 yuan/ton).
Market analysis in the future
At present, the effective support within the cyclohexanone market in Shandong is still insufficient. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will continue to consolidate and operate, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

In March, the asphalt market first suppressed and then rose, with an overall decline. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt # 70 in Shandong region was 3765 yuan/ton on March 1st, and as of March 31st, the ex factory price in Shandong region was 3675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.39% within the month.
In the first half of the year, crude oil continued to decline and the cost side was difficult to support. In the off-season of demand, the Shandong market continued to decline, and the asphalt market fell from a high level due to market competition for shipments. After the cost fell, refineries that reserved low-priced raw materials released an increase in contract volume for the far month, and the market continued to explore the bottom.
In the second half of the year, due to the rebound of crude oil and the low supply of asphalt itself, the futures and spot markets experienced a brief rebound, and spot support was still insufficient. The overall increase was limited, and the market ended in a downward trend in March.
From the perspective of Business Society, the current asphalt fundamentals have some support, but lack upward driving force. On the one hand, a slight increase in crude oil prices is an important driving force for asphalt prices. If crude oil experiences a slight decline, the futures asphalt market will inevitably follow suit. The US tariff policy has an impact on the economy and poses certain obstacles to the upward trend of crude oil. On the other hand, as demand enters the peak season, there may be an improvement in demand in the future, which will support the asphalt market. Overall, the short-term adjustment of asphalt is weak, while the long-term focus is still on the fluctuation trend of crude oil.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic TDI market prices have been fluctuating at a low level recently. Currently, the domestic TDI prices are around 11600-12000 yuan/ton, while the Shanghai prices are around 12000-12300 yuan/ton. The factory settlement prices have been gradually introduced, further suppressing market confidence. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and traders have a strong intention to sell at low prices. At the same time, demand is flat and transactions are low. It is expected that the TDI market will operate weakly at low prices in the short term.

Aluminum prices rose first and then fell in March
Aluminum prices first rose and then fell in March, and have recently experienced a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20576.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.03% from the market average price of 20570 yuan/ton on March 1.
In the early stage, aluminum prices continued their strong trend from January to February. Recently, aluminum prices have slightly fallen, and the overall price is fluctuating at a high level.
Fundamental Overview
Beneficial factors:
1. Domestic macro positive news is frequent. The effects of the “two new” policies continue to be evident. In January and February 2025, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size will continue to improve, and the decline in profits will narrow. The profits of equipment manufacturing and raw material manufacturing industries will shift from decline to increase, and the efficiency of industrial enterprises will show a stable recovery trend. The manufacturing PMI has rebounded. On March 31st, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data that the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for China’s manufacturing industry rose to 50.5% in March, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing industry’s prosperity level.
In February, the comprehensive PMI of the domestic aluminum processing industry rose to 61.6% and entered the expansion zone. Policy dividends and peak season effects promoted the recovery of aluminum consumption, and social inventories continued to decrease. As of March 31, 2025, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the mainstream domestic market was 806000 tons, which is 77000 tons lower than the social inventory of 883000 tons on February 27.
Negative factors:
1. The cost side is dragging down, and the raw material alumina market is weakening in search of a bottom, with limited support from the cost side for aluminum prices. Global alumina spot prices remain in a downward trend, and the export window is currently closed. This week, the price of bauxite has slightly declined, and cost support has weakened again. Supply side maintenance and new production coexist, social inventory continues to increase, and the alumina market is weak.
2. The US tariff policy is fluctuating and the overall trend is not conducive to the export of the aluminum industry chain. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, the cumulative export volume of unprocessed and rolled aluminum and aluminum materials in China in February 2025 was 408000 tons, a decrease of 9.53% month on month and 12.70% year-on-year; The cumulative export volume for the whole year of 2025 will reach 859000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.0%.
Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely in April
Short term fundamentals are supported, and we are observing the impact of macro factors. Long and short factors are intertwined, and it is expected that aluminum prices will mainly fluctuate widely in April.