I. price trend

The price of monoammonium phosphate in the domestic market fell slightly this week, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On November 18, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium in China was 1966 yuan / ton, and on November 22, the average ex factory price was 1950 yuan / ton, with a drop of 1.85%. On November 22, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 65.83, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.72% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 6.02% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: 55% of ammonium powder in Anhui Province has a factory quotation of 1850-2050 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, 55% of the total price of powdered ammonium is 1800-2000 yuan / ton, and 60% of the total price of powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted 1800-1950 yuan / ton, and some enterprises have overhauled their devices. The price of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1850-2050 yuan / ton, which is stable. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is 1850-2050 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: at present, the domestic sulfur market continues to explore, the contradiction between supply and demand is still the same, the increase and consumption of port inventory is slow, the market is dominated by negative emotions, the industry is bearish on the future market, the negotiation atmosphere is cold, after last week’s phosphorus and compound fertilizer industry conference, the market remains quiet, coupled with the lack of information guidance in the market, the demand has not changed. In winter, the phosphorus ore market has been operating at a low level. In the past week, the overall market of domestic phosphorus ore market has not recovered significantly, and the weak trend is still the same. Affected by environmental protection and other policies, the production of the mine is limited, and new orders are still not traded. Under the low operating rate of the enterprise, the overall supply of the factory has declined, and the mine and dealers have maintained the current status of price protection, The willingness of some enterprises to hold a firm price is obvious, and the prices of individual enterprises are high, and the actual transaction is low.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 46th week of 2019 (11.18-11.22), there are 19 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are isopropanol (9.31%), acetone (6.28%) and acrylic acid (3.24%). There are 26 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are caustic soda (- 11.61%), epichlorohydrin (- 8.58%) and sulfur (- 5.42%). This week’s average was – 0.38%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of monoammonium phosphate of business association think that due to the continuous decline of raw material market price, the opening of winter storage market is slow, and the downstream enterprises are insufficient to buy. Part of the enterprise equipment maintenance, dealers lack of confidence. At present, the market is still weak with limited cost support. It is expected that the fall space of monoammonium phosphate will be limited in the later period, and the market will continue to consolidate at a low level.