I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, as of November 22, the average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 360-430 yuan / ton based on the quotation of sample enterprises in several mainstream areas, basically the same as last week, and the overall operation of the phosphate rock market was stable this week.

II. Market analysis

Products: the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to run in a downturn this week. At the beginning of the month, prices in some regions were slightly adjusted. Prices of some mining enterprises in Guizhou and other regions remained high. Prices of phosphorus mining enterprises in a small part of Kaiyang region were slightly lower due to the impact of demand. In the past two weeks, prices have been running steadily. The current monitoring data shows that the overall market is 1.73% lower than that at the beginning of the month, and the overall actual turnover of the market is still rare The volume of new orders of mining enterprises is small, and the negotiated transaction price is low. At present, the operation rate of the mine is not good, about 40% of the site starts, and the production is limited. The mining enterprises mainly implement the orders of old customers, and the new orders are few. The downstream demand of domestic phosphorus ore market is weak. Affected by the environmental protection policy in 2019, the downstream yellow phosphorus output is low. In addition, in winter, the downstream products such as phosphate fertilizer are in the off-season, which makes the overall demand of phosphorus ore market low and it is difficult to drive the market to move goods. As of November 22, the trading atmosphere of Yunnan phosphorus ore market is light. The ex factory quotation of 29% phosphate rock in Yunnan is 32 0 yuan / ton; phosphorus ore market in Hubei continues to be weak and stable, with 30% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate quotation reference of 420-440 yuan / ton; phosphorus ore market demand in Guizhou is low, weak and stable as a whole, with 30% ammonium phosphate ore car plate quotation of 340-430 yuan / ton, and 30% grade phosphate ore factory quotation of Guizhou kaiphosphate phosphate ore reference of 430 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, there are 15 kinds of commodities in the price up and down list of bulk 58 on November 21, 2019, which are concentrated in the non-ferrous (4 kinds in total) and energy (3 kinds in total). The top three commodities are WTI crude oil (3.44%), cold rolled (1.23%) and PTA (1.01%). There are 18 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, which are mainly agricultural and sideline products (4 kinds in total) and nonferrous products (4 kinds in total). The commodities with a decline of more than 5% are mainly concentrated in the chemical industry sector; the top three commodities are caustic soda (- 11.61%), urea (- 2.35%) and nickel (- 2.22%). The average price of this day was – 0.28%.

Industrial chain: the yellow phosphorus market is generally stable temporarily, the on-site construction is declining, and the supply is relatively tight. Some yellow phosphorus enterprises want to raise their prices. At present, the new order transaction in the yellow phosphorus market refers to 18200-18600 yuan / ton. The phosphoric acid market continued to operate stably and the trading was relatively stable.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, it is expected that the phosphorus ore market will remain weak and stable in the near future on the premise that the demand is difficult to increase, and the actual situation will still be wait-and-see.