I. price data

According to the data in the bulk list of business association, in November, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refineries was 1155.75 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 980.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 175.75 yuan / ton in the month, up and down 15.21% in the month. In November, the ground refined petroleum coke extended the downward trend in October.

On November 29, the petroleum coke commodity index was 76.22, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.01% from 155.59 (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 13.95% from 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Products: in November, the downward trend of refining oil coke continued, the impact of environmental protection and heating season, the lower purchasing sentiment was not high, the refinery continued to give profits to stimulate shipment, and the overall trading was average. The price of ground refined petroleum coke fell by 50-150 yuan / ton this month.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States at the beginning of the month is 54.18 US dollars / barrel, at the end of the month is 55.17 US dollars / barrel, with a monthly increase or decrease of 1.83%; Brent crude oil at the beginning of the month is 60.23 US dollars / barrel, at the end of the month is 62.43 US dollars / barrel, with a monthly increase or decrease of 3.65%. In November, the international crude oil fluctuated upward. At the beginning of the month, the market was optimistic about the Sino US trade and it was reported that OPEC would consider extending the current production reduction agreement at the December meeting to provide some support. However, the demand for crude oil in the United States did not improve in the month, which hindered the rise of crude oil. Downstream: due to the impact of environmental protection policies, some coking enterprises in Shandong and Hebei were shut down. The market demand for calcined coke and electrolytic aluminum is general, the enthusiasm of carbon enterprises for raw material procurement is not high, and the downstream demand is general. In November, the price of domestic standard aluminum ingots was stable. According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market as of November 29 is 14010 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in November 2019, there were 7 commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the energy sector; the top 3 commodities were MTBE (5.70%), Brent crude oil (3.65%) and gasoline (2.43%). There are 8 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are petroleum coke (- 15.21%), dimethyl ether (- 7.43%), coking coal (- 3.74%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 0.99%.

III. future forecast

The oil coke analyst of the business association predicted that the underground refining oil coke market will continue to decline in November, and there is no obvious positive downstream, and the impact of environmental protection, heating season and other factors. The downstream demand is limited. It is expected that the underground refining oil coke will continue to decline in December, with the price range of 800-1000 yuan / ton or so.