I. price trend
According to the data monitoring of business agency, the market of plasticizer DOP weakened in November, and the price of DOP fell. As of November 30, the price of DOP in East China was 7366.67 yuan / ton, down 83.33 yuan / ton or 1.12% compared with 7450.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (November 1), down 18.82% compared with the same period last year.
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II. Market analysis
Product analysis
DOP prices fell in November, down 1.12%. Overall DOP prices fell in January, with a single decline significantly contracted compared with October. Although the DOP market rebounded briefly in November, it is still in a weak position on the whole. The demand for DOP is limited, but the supply is sufficient, and the overall DOP supply exceeds the demand.
Commodity name ﹣ port ﹣ 11.29 price ﹣ 11.22 price ﹣ 11.15 price ﹣ 11.8 price ﹣ 11.1 price ﹣ price type ﹣ unit
DOP China 930.00 920.00 920.00 920.00 920.00 920.00 CFR USD / ton
DOP Southeast Asia 1150.00 1150.00 1140.00 1140.00 1130.00 CFR USD / ton
© November 2019 business club www.100ppi.com
As can be seen from the table, DOP prices rose in November, which was positive. In November, the price of DOP in China was 920-930 US dollars / ton, with a price increase of 10 US dollars / ton; in Southeast Asia, the price of DOP in November was 1130-1150 US dollars / ton, with a price increase of 20 US dollars / ton, with a price increase of plasticizer DOP, with a favorable domestic plasticizer Market.
Analysis of industrial chain
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It can be seen from the figure that in terms of raw materials, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride fell sharply in November, and the price of octanol fell slightly, phthalic anhydride fell by 2.51% and octanol by 1.18%; the overall cost of DOP fell, and DOP market was negative. In the last ten days of November, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring process fluctuated and remained stable, the price of phthalic anhydride from naphthalene process fell, and the price of phthalic anhydride, the raw material of DOP, fluctuated and fell as a whole, which was bad for DOP market. The rising power of DOP Market in the future weakened and the falling pressure increased, and it is expected that DOP market in the future will fall.
In terms of downstream demand, PVC market rose in November, up 5.86%, and DOP downstream market recovered, which was good for DOP market. However, due to the centralized maintenance of PVC, PVC production was in the off-season, the demand for DOP decreased, and the momentum for DOP to rise was limited.
III. future forecast
Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP business agency, believes that in November, the price of plasticizer DOP raw material isooctanol fell in shock, and the price of phthalic anhydride fell in shock. The decline of raw material market is bad for DOP market. Since the end of November, the price of isooctanol has been stable, that of phthalic anhydride by ortho process has been stable, that of phthalic anhydride by naphthalene process has been declining, and the overall cost of DOP has declined slightly, while the market of DOP has been negative but the negative pressure is small. Downstream, PVC prices rose sharply in November, but November is the traditional off-season of PVC. Equipment maintenance of PVC manufacturers increased, and the demand for DOP decreased. There is a certain negative for DOP market. There is downward pressure, but the negative is limited. Generally speaking, plasticizer DOP market is under great downward pressure, with limited demand for DOP. It is expected that DOP market will be weak and stable in the future.
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