This week, the acrylic acid market showed a supply-demand game, and the overall operation remained stable. On the supply side, some manufacturers have adjusted their production plans to cope with changes in market demand; On the demand side, downstream users also exhibit a certain degree of flexibility in their procurement strategies. As of May 7th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.44% compared to the beginning of this month (7533.33 yuan/ton).
supply end
Capacity release and maintenance coexist: Some newly added production capacity in China (such as Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II) is gradually being released, but some enterprises have maintained operating rates of 70% to 80% due to equipment maintenance or environmental restrictions, and the overall supply has not shown significant growth.
demand side
Weakness in the construction sector: The sluggish real estate industry has led to weak demand for coatings and mortar additives.
Packaging and textile stability maintenance: The demand for packaging adhesives and hygiene materials (such as high water absorbent resins for diapers) is stable, supporting the rigid demand for acrylic acid.
Export increment: The recovery of manufacturing industries in Southeast Asia and other regions has driven an increase in export orders, with some enterprises increasing their export share to 20% -30%.
Prudent procurement strategy: Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, with low willingness to hoard goods, and market transactions mainly consist of small and medium-sized orders.
Fluctuations in raw material prices: The price of propylene is affected by the high volatility of crude oil (such as Brent crude oil in the $8085/barrel range), and the cost support of acrylic acid is strong. The profit margin of enterprises is about 500800 yuan/ton, and there is no significant price reduction motivation. As of May 7th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6685.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.75% compared to the beginning of this month (6570.75 yuan/ton).
Prediction of future trends
Short term (1-3 months): Under weak supply-demand balance, the price of acrylic acid may continue to fluctuate narrowly, with an expected fluctuation range of 200500 yuan/ton.
In summary, the stable operation of the current acrylic acid market is the result of the combined effects of supply side quantity control, demand side rigid demand support, and high cost. Despite the lack of unilateral upward momentum, the downward space is also limited, and in the short term, the market may maintain a stalemate of “top and bottom”. It is recommended that participants in the industry chain closely monitor the pace of capacity release, fluctuations in crude oil prices, and downstream inventory replenishment behavior to avoid potential risks.