According to the price monitoring system of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate continued to decline after the holiday. As of May 8th, the benchmark price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in China was 66900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47% from 67900 yuan/ton before the holiday and a decrease of 38.28% from 108400 yuan/ton in the same period last year; The benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate is 67733 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% from 68933 yuan/ton before the holiday and a decrease of 41.31% from 115400 yuan/ton in the same period last year.
Upstream cost reduction
The peak season for summer production in salt lakes has arrived, with full production capacity and cost advantages. As a result, market prices continue to decline, and low lithium prices have forced mines to upgrade and reduce costs. The recovery rate of spodumene concentrate has increased, and processing costs have decreased. The trade war has led to a decrease in trade volume between China and the United States, with an expected surplus of transportation capacity and a decrease in logistics costs for African lithium mines returning home.
Expected positive social inventory
Although lithium carbonate has been in the stage of accumulating inventory since the end of the year, the current price of lithium carbonate continues to decline, and there has been a reduction in production at the smelting end. The surplus has improved, and there will be annual maintenance of smelting plants in May and June, which is expected to affect the total production of lithium carbonate by more than 1000 tons. Social inventory is expected to be depleted.
The demand side is affected by trade conflicts, and the expectation is not optimistic
The high demand for power batteries at the end of the year is mainly due to policies such as trade in and the rebound in car purchase demand brought about by the decline in prices of new energy vehicles. However, the high growth rate since the second quarter of this year is difficult to sustain.
The mutual imposition of tariffs between China and the United States has impacted the domestic market and supply chain of new energy vehicles in the United States, which may result in damage to the orders of ternary positive electrode factories with a high proportion of domestic and foreign exports. Exporting to the United States is also facing massive tariffs, and there are signs of weakening in energy storage orders.
The data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that the demand for lithium carbonate is flat, and some smelters have new maintenance plans, but external procurement may increase. Lithium carbonate lacks upward momentum, and the downward cost support weakens. It is expected that the price will further decline.