Analysis: This week (5.12-16), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was sluggish, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 3.17%. The main reason is the prominent supply contradiction and excessive market inventory. Recently, with the resumption of maintenance equipment, the supply side has shown loose performance. Coupled with the increase in urea to ammonia conversion by manufacturers, the supply has significantly increased, and the rise in ammonia volume has dragged down ammonia prices. Starting from Tuesday, companies began to gradually reduce prices, which continued until Friday. Mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by a range of 200 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2200-2350 yuan/ton.
Prediction: In the recent off-season of the agricultural demand market, industrial demand has followed suit, and the supply is sufficient. However, the supply pressure may partially ease in the later stage. On the one hand, as prices hover at low levels or supply is tightened in the main production areas of the north, there will be an increase in enterprise inspections and price hikes. From the demand side perspective, downstream procurement may continue to be sluggish, maintaining reasonable procurement demand. There is limited room for order growth in the later stage, and industrial demand urgently needs to be followed up. Taking all factors into consideration, the downward trend of liquid ammonia may slow down next week, gradually stopping the decline, and the price range will mainly fluctuate.