According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market has shown a fluctuating upward trend since May. As of May 19th, the average market price in East China was 4993 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.93% from the beginning of the month.
At the beginning of the month, crude oil fell sharply under the negative impact of OPEC+’s decision to increase production in June, with Brent crude oil falling to $58 per barrel at one point. However, due to expectations of US China tariff negotiations and geopolitical factors, crude oil continued to rebound. As of May 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $61.97 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $65.41 per barrel.
The rise in crude oil has provided cost support for the rebound of PTA. In addition, in terms of PTA’s own supply, the second quarter is a centralized maintenance period for PTA enterprises, and the current domestic operating rate is around 75%. Recently, there have been plans to restart the equipment, and overall production is expected to increase.
After the easing of tariff risks, the market was boosted by favorable factors, coupled with the boost of the raw material market. Some downstream manufacturers are concerned about future cost increases, so they have concentrated on stocking raw materials, and the atmosphere of replenishment has heated up. The production enthusiasm of terminal weaving manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased to 57% compared to the previous period, with some domestic and foreign trade orders showing an increase and some orders showing a warming trend in delivery.
Business analysts believe that there is an expectation for the restart of PTA maintenance equipment in the early stage, with a slight increase in domestic supply. In addition, there are many unstable external factors, and the sustainability of downstream procurement enthusiasm needs to be observed. It is expected that PTA prices will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.