According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 2nd to 6th, MTBE prices fell from 5042 yuan/ton to 4937 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.08% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 1.54%, and a year-on-year decrease of 25.61%. The domestic MTBE market first rose and then fell. The market was relatively strong in the early part of the week, mainly due to the support of crude oil and gasoline ship orders, so manufacturers increased prices and volume. However, as prices rose to a relatively high point, many manufacturers released their production plans, and the expected increase in resource supply without substantial positive support from the demand side, the MTBE market fluctuated downward.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the continued signs of geopolitical tension, leading to potential supply risks. The Canadian wildfires have reduced crude oil production, and the traditional peak season in the United States has released positive news, providing support for oil prices. As of June 5th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the August contract was $65.34 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of gasoline terminal demand, the slight weakness in gasoline terminal demand has led to slow digestion of inventory by social units, and the intention of large orders from mid to downstream merchants is weak. Business operators tend to purchase relevant gasoline components on demand. The MTBE demand side is affected by bearish factors.
Supply side: Many manufacturers have released their start-up plans. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on June 5th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $9.84/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $668.32-670.32/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has increased by $10/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB ARA closing at $756.74-757.24/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $10.24/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $674.64-674.99/ton (190.49-190.59 cents/gallon).
Short term MTBE production is expected to increase and the overall supply side is expected to grow. Cost pressure still exists, supporting the bottom price of MTBE. There is some favorable support on the export side. The MTBE analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic MTBE market is mainly volatile.