price trend
Fall after the festival: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the enthusiasm of Shandong market downstream and traders to receive orders slowed down. Although some devices were reduced in load and overhauled, the market supply performance was loose, and the shipment of holders dominated. Yesterday, dichloromethane fell to the low point within the week, down 7.78%, down 12.68% year on year.
Low rebound: With the weakening of prices, the demand for replenishment at low prices in the market has increased, and trading activity has increased. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 11th, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province was 2175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.05% during the week and a year-on-year decrease of 7.45%.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: Local enterprises have lowered negative loads to stabilize prices, while overall supply remains relatively loose
Device dynamics: The overall production of the industry has rebounded to around 80%, and the supply is relatively stable. Currently, some enterprises are reducing negative loads to stabilize prices.
Inventory pressure: Some manufacturers have accumulated inventory and mainly rely on destocking after the holiday, resulting in price pressure.
Cost side: Methanol rebounds, liquid chlorine oscillates upwards
Methanol: The supply is relatively loose. Currently, there is an increase in domestic production and a reduction in imports of methanol. Although port inventory has accumulated, shipments are still acceptable. Methanol prices have bottomed out and rebounded. As of June 11th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was reported at 2360 yuan/ton, with a 4.89% increase for the week. It is expected that the import arrivals at the port will gradually increase, and the accumulation of inventory will continue.
Liquid chlorine: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has fluctuated and rebounded, providing some support for the cost of dichloromethane.
Demand side: Dichloromethane, as an important organic solvent and chemical raw material, is widely used in the fields of refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, coatings, adhesives, electronic cleaning, etc. It is often purchased at low prices and in high demand.
Refrigerants are still in the peak demand season, and prices continue to show a stable but rising trend. R32 (mainly used for household and commercial air conditioning), currently has a domestic average price of over 50000 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 42%. However, enterprises mostly produce their own raw material dichloromethane, with a relatively small proportion of external purchases. Due to quota restrictions, the industry’s incremental space is limited, and support for dichloromethane is weak.
The coatings and adhesives industry is experiencing a seasonal recovery, with June entering the peak season for construction and decoration. Demand has improved month on month, but due to environmental policies, some companies are turning to low VOC solvents.
The electronic cleaning industry benefits from the stocking of new energy vehicles, energy storage, and consumer electronics, with a steady growth in demand for high-purity DCM.
The pharmaceutical industry requires stability, but some companies are exploring alternative solutions under high environmental standards.
Future prospects
The game between cost support and loose supply, short-term fluctuations in dichloromethane consolidation, if industries such as coatings and electronics continue to replenish inventory, prices may rebound slightly; If the downstream wait-and-see sentiment intensifies, it is not ruled out that another bottoming out may occur.