Price Trend (6.11-6.18)
Stable at the beginning of the week, with a slight decline later on. On site trading is average, and under the game of supply and demand, inventory accumulates. Some companies have slightly reduced prices to reduce inventory. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 18th, the average price of dichloromethane water in Shandong Province was 2150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.15% during the week and 8.32% year-on-year.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: Loose, some companies reduce their burden
Device dynamics: The industry as a whole is operating at around 80% capacity, with relatively stable supply. Currently, some enterprises are maintaining a load reduction operation.
Inventory pressure is evident: some manufacturers have accumulated inventory, and their willingness to reduce prices to reduce inventory is increasing.
Cost side: Methanol surges, liquid chlorine weakens
Methanol: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has escalated, and there are reports that most of Iran’s methanol plants have been shut down, which may have a significant impact on the arrival of goods at ports in the later stage. Methanol prices have risen strongly, and as of June 18th, the spot price of methanol on Shengyi Society was reported at 2674 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.71% for the week. Cost support has been strengthened, but weak demand has limited price transmission.
Liquid chlorine: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has slightly fallen, partially offsetting the impact of methanol’s rise.
Demand side: primary demand, refrigerant or storage support
Dichloromethane, as an important organic solvent and chemical raw material, is widely used in the fields of refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, coatings, adhesives, electronic cleaning, etc., and is mainly purchased for essential needs. June is usually the traditional off-season for the chemical industry, and some downstream enterprises may experience weak demand due to high temperatures, rainy seasons, or reduced operating rates during environmental inspections. Due to the rainy weather in some regions (such as East China and South China), the demand for industries such as construction and coatings may slow down.
The consumption market structure of refrigerant R32 is 40% export+40% household air conditioning production+20% industrial, commercial, and agricultural refrigeration+household, industrial, commercial, and agricultural heating+maintenance market. The third quarter is the relatively peak season for maintenance+export market, and it is expected to maintain a good upward trend. In the next six months, demand will increase significantly, and refrigeration companies will apply to increase R32 production quotas in August, which may boost demand for dichloromethane.
Future prospects
The supply-demand game continues, and the contradiction between cost and demand is prominent, resulting in short-term fluctuations and consolidation of dichloromethane. If inventory pressure increases, prices may continue to decline slightly; If methanol continues to rise, companies may raise prices.